Alert archive / New York / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Burlington, VT
NWS Burlington, VT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Nov 25, 2004, 10:39 AM EST for Essex County, New York; Addison County, Vermont. It was in force for 51 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 25, 2004, 10:39 AM EST (15:39 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 25, 2004, 11:30 AM EST
- In force
- 51 min
- Issued by
- NWS Burlington, VT
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
Counties Essex County, NY, Addison County, VT
The radar
The Burlington radar (KCXX), 66 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 3.7 hours before the alert went out and 143 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 192 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -49 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 774 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 66 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 191 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 165 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.3
- Supercell composite
- 1.4
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS51 KBTV 251539 SVRBTV NYC031-VTC001-251630- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1039 AM EST THU NOV 25 2004 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... ADDISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL VERMONT ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK * UNTIL 1130 AM EST * AT 1032 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TICONDEROGA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE... NEAR TICONDEROGA AROUND 1040 AM EST NEAR SHOREHAM...CROWN POINT...6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CROWN POINT CENTER AROUND 1050 AM EST NEAR CORNWALL...BRIDPORT AROUND 1100 AM EST NEAR MIDDLEBURY AROUND 1110 AM EST NEAR BRISTOL...NEW HAVEN...6 MILES NORTHWEST OF SOUTH LINCOLN AROUND 1120 AM EST THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. PREPARE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SEEK INDOOR SHELTER...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE WARNING. LAT...LON 4381 7365 4369 7347 4407 7293 4428 7306 $$ JMG
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Burlington, VT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Nov 25, 9:33 AM EST, 1 hour 6 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 25, 9:33 AM EST, 1 hour 6 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 932 EST THU NOV 25 2004 .UPDATE... THE GOING FCST WAS UPDATED BASICALLY TO MAKE IT MORE CURRENT. THUNDER WAS ADDED TO SOME VT ZONES AND TEMPS WERE TWEAKED IN A FEW SPOTS. SOME ENHANCED WORDING WAS ADDED TO THE SRN VT ZONES FOR ANY +TSRA BY LATER TODAY. SVR TSTM WATCH #907 IS UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA THRU 2 PM EST. HAD A LIL TROUBLE GETTING THE SLSVT OUT...BUT IT/S OUT. LATER... MURRAY/GOFF .PREV DISCUSSION...FROM 628 AM EST .SHORT TERM... MADE MINOR UPDATE TO ZONES TO INCLUDE SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE MORNING PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS. SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDER...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. EVENSON .PREV DISCUSSION FROM 422 AM EST .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... A WIDE RANGE OF WEATHER CONDITIONS TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S WEST OF THE FRONT AND IN THE 50S EAST OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL EXIT VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK. DRY SLOT IN BETWEEN WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE MORNING HOURS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AS A RESULT AND COMBINED WITH APPROACH OF SHARP UPPER FRONT...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN FURTHER. UPPER FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE A FORCING MECHANISM TO ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND POINTS EAST. STRONG OMEGA DEVELOPS ALONG THIS UPPER FRONT...SO EXPECT A BURST OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON THAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER...BUT WITH ALL THE OTHER ELEMENTS TO THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. IN ADDITION THIS AFTERNOON...COLDER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AND HELP CREATE A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. GROUND STILL RELATIVELY WARM AND DO NOT FEEL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT. HIGH ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO PICK UP AN INCH. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF MIXING AND THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS REACHING THE BREEZY TO WINDY CATEGORIES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. THIS AREA AND THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OR SNOW OF SNOW BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...WITH THE TEMPERATURE GOING BELOW FREEZING...SLICK ROADS MAY DEVELOP AND WITH IT STILL BEING A HOLIDAY TRAVEL DAY...WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA IN THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THAT ALTHOUGH THESE WEATHER ELEMENTS BY THEMSELVES ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT...COMBINING ALL OF THEM IN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON FRIDAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 30S. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO EXIST...SO WIND CHILL FACTORS WILL COME INTO PLAY...BUT REMAIN ABOVE ANY CRITICAL LEVELS. IT WILL JUST FEEL MUCH COLDER SIMPLY FOR THE FACT THAT HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 MOST AREAS. WARM FRONT TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA EARLY ON SATURDAY...BUT BOUNDARY WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT. GRADIENT CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE LOW. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ISSUE WILL BE DIRECTION AS INDICATIONS ARE NOW MORE OF A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY SHOWING A SOUTHEAST GRADIENT. A SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WOULD CAUSE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AS WINDS TEND TO GET CHANNELED FROM THIS DIRECTION. SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IS MORE LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW/UPPER TROUGH MOVE INTO THE AREA. && .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... NO CHANGES MADE TO THESE PERIODS AS MAIN FOCUS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS IN THE SHORT TERM. EVENSON .AVIATION (06Z-06Z)... SCATTERED RAIN AND FOG ACROSS AREA THRU MIDDAY...WITH VSBY LWRED TO 4-5SM W/ OCNL IFR CONDITIONS BLW 3SM. COLDER AIR WILL MV INTO REGION AFT 20Z FROM WEST TO EAST...CHANGING ANY PRECIP OVER TO -SW/-SN. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FROM 20Z TO END OF FORECAST PERIOD FOR SNOWFALL VSBY REDUCTION. WINDS ACROSS REGION FOR FORECAST PTS SOUTH 10 TO 20 KTS OVER KBTV AND KMPV...LIGHTENING TO LESS THAN 10KTS DURING MORNING HRS AS LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH OF AREA..BECMG WNW AFT 00Z AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH SOME POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS TO 25KTS. WSW CONDITIONS AT KSLK 10 TO 20KTS SHIFTING TO THE WNW BY LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AT KMSS BECMG WNW DURING THE LATE MORNING HRS AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS TO 25KTS. NEILSON .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. &&
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 25, 10:13 AM EST, 26 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1013 AM EST THU NOV 25 2004 NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-251700- CALEDONIA VT-EASTERN ADDISON VT-EASTERN CHITTENDEN VT- EASTERN CLINTON NY-EASTERN ESSEX NY-EASTERN FRANKLIN VT- EASTERN RUTLAND VT-ESSEX VT-GRAND ISLE VT-LAMOILLE VT- NORTHERN FRANKLIN NY-NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT- SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN NY- SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-WASHINGTON VT-WESTERN ADDISON VT- WESTERN CHITTENDEN VT-WESTERN CLINTON NY-WESTERN ESSEX NY- WESTERN FRANKLIN VT-WESTERN RUTLAND VT-WINDSOR VT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARRE...BETHEL...BRANDON...BURLINGTON... CANAAN...CANTON...DANBY...ESSEX JUNCTION...FAIR HAVEN...MALONE... MASSENA...MIDDLEBURY...MONTPELIER...MORRISVILLE...NEWCOMB... NEWPORT...OGDENSBURG...PLATTSBURGH...POTSDAM...RANDOLPH...RUTLAND... SARANAC LAKE...SOUTH BURLINGTON...SPRINGFIELD...ST. ALBANS... ST. JOHNSBURY...SWANTON...VERGENNES...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION... WILLSBORO AND WINOOSKI 1013 AM EST THU NOV 25 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK BY MIDDAY AND THEN ACROSS VERMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. AS THE FRONT PASSES...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION...CHANGING RAIN SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MOST AREAS PICKING UP LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW. WET ROADS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME ICY AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE. WHILE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT BY THEMSELVES...THE COMBINATION OF ALL EVENTS IN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THEY MAY EVEN BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. IF THIS IS THE CASE...THIS COULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. WINDS IN THESE SITUATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG OR DAMAGING. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR WEATHER REPORTS ON SNOW...WINDS...AND ICY ROADS.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Nov 25, 4:55 AM EST, 5 hours 44 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 455 AM EST THU NOV 25 2004 NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-252200- CALEDONIA VT-EASTERN ADDISON VT-EASTERN CHITTENDEN VT- EASTERN CLINTON NY-EASTERN ESSEX NY-EASTERN FRANKLIN VT- EASTERN RUTLAND VT-ESSEX VT-GRAND ISLE VT-LAMOILLE VT- NORTHERN FRANKLIN NY-NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT- SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN NY- SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-WASHINGTON VT-WESTERN ADDISON VT- WESTERN CHITTENDEN VT-WESTERN CLINTON NY-WESTERN ESSEX NY- WESTERN FRANKLIN VT-WESTERN RUTLAND VT-WINDSOR VT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARRE...BETHEL...BRANDON...BURLINGTON... CANAAN...CANTON...DANBY...ESSEX JUNCTION...FAIR HAVEN...MALONE... MASSENA...MIDDLEBURY...MONTPELIER...MORRISVILLE...NEWCOMB... NEWPORT...OGDENSBURG...PLATTSBURGH...POTSDAM...RANDOLPH...RUTLAND... SARANAC LAKE...SOUTH BURLINGTON...SPRINGFIELD...ST. ALBANS... ST. JOHNSBURY...SWANTON...VERGENNES...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION... WILLSBORO AND WINOOSKI 455 AM EST THU NOV 25 2004 ...STRONG COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK BY MIDDAY AND THEN ACROSS VERMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA...BUT WITH NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MOST AREAS PICKING UP LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW. WET ROADS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME ICY AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE. WHILE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT BY THEMSELVES...THE COMBINATION OF ALL EVENTS IN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THUS PERSONS TRAVELING THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THIS ABRUPT CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS. EVENSON
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in New York, 2004Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Vermont, 2004Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.