Alert archive / New York / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Burlington, VT

November 25, 2004Essex County, New York; Addison County, Vermont

NWS Burlington, VT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Nov 25, 2004, 10:39 AM EST for Essex County, New York; Addison County, Vermont. It was in force for 51 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 25, 2004, 10:39 AM EST (15:39 UTC)
Expired
Nov 25, 2004, 11:30 AM EST
In force
51 min
Issued by
NWS Burlington, VT
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Essex County, NY, Addison County, VT

The radar

The Burlington radar (KCXX), 66 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 3.7 hours before the alert went out and 143 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2004-11-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 192 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2004-11-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 191 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
192 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-49 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
774 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
66 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
191 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
165 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.3
Supercell composite
1.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS51 KBTV 251539
SVRBTV
NYC031-VTC001-251630-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1039 AM EST THU NOV 25 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  ADDISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL VERMONT
  ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK


* UNTIL 1130 AM EST

* AT 1032 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TICONDEROGA...MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE...
  NEAR TICONDEROGA AROUND 1040 AM EST
  NEAR SHOREHAM...CROWN POINT...6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CROWN POINT
  CENTER AROUND 1050 AM EST
  NEAR CORNWALL...BRIDPORT AROUND 1100 AM EST
  NEAR MIDDLEBURY AROUND 1110 AM EST
  NEAR BRISTOL...NEW HAVEN...6 MILES NORTHWEST OF SOUTH LINCOLN
  AROUND 1120 AM EST

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. PREPARE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
SEEK INDOOR SHELTER...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN
PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4381 7365 4369 7347 4407 7293 4428 7306

$$

JMG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Burlington, VT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Nov 25, 9:33 AM EST, 1 hour 6 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 25, 9:33 AM EST, 1 hour 6 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
932 EST THU NOV 25 2004

.UPDATE...
THE GOING FCST WAS UPDATED BASICALLY TO MAKE IT MORE CURRENT.
THUNDER WAS ADDED TO SOME VT ZONES AND TEMPS WERE TWEAKED IN A FEW
SPOTS. SOME ENHANCED WORDING WAS ADDED TO THE SRN VT ZONES FOR ANY
+TSRA BY LATER TODAY.

SVR TSTM WATCH #907 IS UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA THRU 2 PM EST.
HAD A LIL TROUBLE GETTING THE SLSVT OUT...BUT IT/S OUT. LATER...

MURRAY/GOFF

.PREV DISCUSSION...FROM 628 AM EST

.SHORT TERM...
MADE MINOR UPDATE TO ZONES TO INCLUDE SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE
MORNING PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS.  SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN
OUT...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDER...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS
UNCHANGED.

EVENSON

.PREV DISCUSSION FROM 422 AM EST

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A WIDE RANGE OF WEATHER CONDITIONS TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S WEST OF THE FRONT AND
IN THE 50S EAST OF THE FRONT.  PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL EXIT
VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK.  DRY SLOT IN
BETWEEN WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE MORNING HOURS OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AS A RESULT
AND COMBINED WITH APPROACH OF SHARP UPPER FRONT...INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN FURTHER.  UPPER FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE A FORCING MECHANISM TO ENHANCE
THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND POINTS EAST.  STRONG OMEGA DEVELOPS ALONG THIS
UPPER FRONT...SO EXPECT A BURST OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON THAT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER...BUT WITH ALL THE OTHER
ELEMENTS TO THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. IN ADDITION THIS
AFTERNOON...COLDER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AND
HELP CREATE A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. GROUND
STILL RELATIVELY WARM AND DO NOT FEEL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT.  HIGH ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO PICK UP
AN INCH.  WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF MIXING AND THIS WILL RESULT IN
NORTHWEST WINDS REACHING THE BREEZY TO WINDY CATEGORIES.

BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.  THIS AREA AND THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OR SNOW OF SNOW BEFORE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.  STILL EXPECTING BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS.  IN ADDITION...WITH THE TEMPERATURE GOING BELOW
FREEZING...SLICK ROADS MAY DEVELOP AND WITH IT STILL BEING A
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DAY...WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA IN THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT THAT ALTHOUGH THESE WEATHER ELEMENTS BY THEMSELVES ARE
NOT SIGNIFICANT...COMBINING ALL OF THEM IN A RELATIVELY SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

COLD AIR ADVECTION ON FRIDAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 30S.  BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
EXIST...SO WIND CHILL FACTORS WILL COME INTO PLAY...BUT REMAIN
ABOVE ANY CRITICAL LEVELS.  IT WILL JUST FEEL MUCH COLDER SIMPLY
FOR THE FACT THAT HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 MOST
AREAS.

WARM FRONT TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA EARLY ON SATURDAY...BUT
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY WITH A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT.  GRADIENT CONTINUES THROUGH THE
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.  CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE
LOW.  BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.  ISSUE WILL BE DIRECTION AS INDICATIONS
ARE NOW MORE OF A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY
SHOWING A SOUTHEAST GRADIENT.  A SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WOULD CAUSE
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AS WINDS TEND TO GET CHANNELED FROM THIS DIRECTION.  SO
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IS MORE LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE
LOW/UPPER TROUGH MOVE INTO THE AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THESE PERIODS AS MAIN FOCUS OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IS IN THE SHORT TERM.

EVENSON

.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
SCATTERED RAIN AND FOG ACROSS AREA THRU MIDDAY...WITH VSBY LWRED TO
4-5SM W/ OCNL IFR CONDITIONS BLW 3SM. COLDER AIR WILL MV INTO REGION
AFT 20Z FROM WEST TO EAST...CHANGING ANY PRECIP OVER TO -SW/-SN.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FROM 20Z TO END OF FORECAST PERIOD FOR SNOWFALL
VSBY REDUCTION. WINDS ACROSS REGION FOR FORECAST PTS SOUTH 10 TO 20
KTS OVER KBTV AND KMPV...LIGHTENING TO LESS THAN 10KTS DURING
MORNING HRS AS LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH OF AREA..BECMG WNW AFT 00Z
AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH SOME POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS TO 25KTS. WSW
CONDITIONS AT KSLK 10 TO 20KTS SHIFTING TO THE WNW BY LATE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AT KMSS BECMG WNW DURING THE LATE MORNING HRS
AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS TO 25KTS.

NEILSON

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 25, 10:13 AM EST, 26 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1013 AM EST THU NOV 25 2004

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-251700-
CALEDONIA VT-EASTERN ADDISON VT-EASTERN CHITTENDEN VT-
EASTERN CLINTON NY-EASTERN ESSEX NY-EASTERN FRANKLIN VT-
EASTERN RUTLAND VT-ESSEX VT-GRAND ISLE VT-LAMOILLE VT-
NORTHERN FRANKLIN NY-NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN NY-
SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-WASHINGTON VT-WESTERN ADDISON VT-
WESTERN CHITTENDEN VT-WESTERN CLINTON NY-WESTERN ESSEX NY-
WESTERN FRANKLIN VT-WESTERN RUTLAND VT-WINDSOR VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARRE...BETHEL...BRANDON...BURLINGTON...
CANAAN...CANTON...DANBY...ESSEX JUNCTION...FAIR HAVEN...MALONE...
MASSENA...MIDDLEBURY...MONTPELIER...MORRISVILLE...NEWCOMB...
NEWPORT...OGDENSBURG...PLATTSBURGH...POTSDAM...RANDOLPH...RUTLAND...
SARANAC LAKE...SOUTH BURLINGTON...SPRINGFIELD...ST. ALBANS...
ST. JOHNSBURY...SWANTON...VERGENNES...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...
WILLSBORO AND WINOOSKI
1013 AM EST THU NOV 25 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK BY MIDDAY AND THEN
ACROSS VERMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  THIS FRONT
WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. AS THE FRONT
PASSES...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION...CHANGING RAIN
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.  NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MOST AREAS
PICKING UP LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW.  WET ROADS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME ICY AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.  IN
ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.  WIND SPEEDS WILL BE INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO
30 MPH RANGE.

WHILE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT
BY THEMSELVES...THE COMBINATION OF ALL EVENTS IN A RELATIVELY SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.  DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THEY MAY EVEN BE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST.  IF THIS IS THE CASE...THIS COULD ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS.  WINDS IN THESE SITUATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG
OR DAMAGING.  THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR
WEATHER REPORTS ON SNOW...WINDS...AND ICY ROADS.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Nov 25, 4:55 AM EST, 5 hours 44 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
455 AM EST THU NOV 25 2004

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-252200-
CALEDONIA VT-EASTERN ADDISON VT-EASTERN CHITTENDEN VT-
EASTERN CLINTON NY-EASTERN ESSEX NY-EASTERN FRANKLIN VT-
EASTERN RUTLAND VT-ESSEX VT-GRAND ISLE VT-LAMOILLE VT-
NORTHERN FRANKLIN NY-NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN NY-
SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-WASHINGTON VT-WESTERN ADDISON VT-
WESTERN CHITTENDEN VT-WESTERN CLINTON NY-WESTERN ESSEX NY-
WESTERN FRANKLIN VT-WESTERN RUTLAND VT-WINDSOR VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARRE...BETHEL...BRANDON...BURLINGTON...
CANAAN...CANTON...DANBY...ESSEX JUNCTION...FAIR HAVEN...MALONE...
MASSENA...MIDDLEBURY...MONTPELIER...MORRISVILLE...NEWCOMB...
NEWPORT...OGDENSBURG...PLATTSBURGH...POTSDAM...RANDOLPH...RUTLAND...
SARANAC LAKE...SOUTH BURLINGTON...SPRINGFIELD...ST. ALBANS...
ST. JOHNSBURY...SWANTON...VERGENNES...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...
WILLSBORO AND WINOOSKI
455 AM EST THU NOV 25 2004

...STRONG COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK BY MIDDAY AND THEN
ACROSS VERMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  THIS FRONT
WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA...BUT WITH
NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.  NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MOST AREAS
PICKING UP LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW.  WET ROADS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME ICY AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.  IN
ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.  WIND SPEEDS WILL BE INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO
30 MPH RANGE.

WHILE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT
BY THEMSELVES...THE COMBINATION OF ALL EVENTS IN A RELATIVELY SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.  THUS PERSONS TRAVELING
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR THIS ABRUPT CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS.

EVENSON

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in New York, 2004Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Vermont, 2004Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.