Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Burlington, VT

000 
WGUS71 KBTV 282350
FFSBTV
VTC001-290030-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
750 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 830 PM EDT FOR...

  ADDISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL VERMONT

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM STATIONARY THUNDERSTORMS HAS PRODUCED FLASH 
FLOODING IN THE BRISTOL AREA.  DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES AROUND 4 
INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS NEAR BRISTOL. AS OF 
740 PM...THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND 
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF 
FLOODING IN THE BRISTOL AREA INCLUDING WATER OVER A BRIDGE ON ROUTE 
116...MUDSLIDES ON MOUNTAIN STREET AND BOULDERS ON ROUTE 17.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.  BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO 
RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS.

$$

&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
445 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WX TONITE THRU MONDAY AND MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD.
WITH PWS RANGING FROM 1.8 TO 2.2 INCHES ACRS FA INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND LOWERING ONLY SLIGHTLY ONLY DURING MONDAY...HVY
RAIN THREAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU TUES)...
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE THRU SUNDAY. WEAK CDFNT
NORTH OF THE BORDER EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH TONITE INTO NRN PORTION OF
FA. MID LEVEL CAP HAS BEEN EFFECTIVE IN SUPPRESSING CONVECTION THIS
PM...SO EXPECTING ONLY WIDELY SCT SHWRS AND PSBL TSRA EARLY
TONIGHT. INCREASED CHANCES OF SHRAS/TSRAS OVRNGHT AS FRONT
MOVES INTO FA...WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER NW NYS.

WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATER TONITE THRU SUNDAY NITE...MOVING UP THRU ST LWR VLY.
OVERRUNNING SHWRS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER ACRS NRN TIER ZONES SUNDAY
AM...WITH ONLY CHC SHWRS SRN ZONES. WITH LOW TRACKING NORTH OF
FA...FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS WRMNT DURING SUNDAY...WITH ENTIRE FA
EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR LATER SUN INTO SUN NITE. SPC HAS OUR
AREA IN SLITE RISK FOR DAY 2. QUESTION IS WHETHER WE SEE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO ALLOW FOR SUFFICEINT DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. BELIEVE
SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...SO NO ENHANCED WORDING ATTM...ALTHO
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

CDFNT THEN MOVES INTO WRN PTN OF FA SUN NITE...BUT STALLS FOR A TIME
MON INTO MON NITE...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER WEAK SFC DISTURBANCE TO
BRING CONTD CHC SHWRS/THNDSTRMS MON INTO MON NITE. THIS SYSTEM
FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST OF FA BY TUES AM TO ALLOW FOR DRIER
AIR TO BUILD INTO FA DURING TUESDAY.
&&

.EXTENDED (TUES NITE THRU SAT)...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST THRU MUCH OF EXTENDED
PERIOD...KEEPING SKIES PRETTY CLR. SOME DAYTIME HEATING CU
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS HIGH MVS E/SE BY THURS ALLOWING
WARMER/MOISTER GULF AIR INTO REGION.

TWO WEAK SYSTEMS APPROACH CWA ON NORTHERN PART OF RIDGE THUR/THUR
NITE AND ON SATURDAY. FIRST ONE LOOKS NOT TO MAKE IMPACT FOR
NORTHERN ZONES SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF REGION ATTM. FRNT WHICH MVS
THRU SAT MVS INTO STRONG RIDGE/DRY AIR BUT STILL CHANCE FOR RW AS
FRNT LIFTS NORTH AND WILL PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS RUN. MUCH OF
PRECIP/STRONG RH AND DYNAMICS STAY NORTH OF BORDER IN CANADA WITH
ASSOCIATED LOWS.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR COND MUCH OF AFTERNOON SCT030-040 BKN070-080. MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNITE INTO SUNDAY SCT015 SCT-BKN030-040. SOME HZ POSSIBLE FROM
00Z-06Z FOR MVFR/VFR COND. CHANCE FOR RW/TRW FROM 07Z THRU 18Z. TRW
CHANCE MAINLY BTV WEST. FG OVER NITE AT MPV AND SLK WILL LOWER VSBY
3SM OR LESS. LIGHT/VARIABLE WNDS OVERNITE BECOMG S/SW 5-10KTS BY
10Z-12Z.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

RJS/JN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
442 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-290841-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN CLINTON-
EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN RUTLAND-ESSEX-GRAND ISLE-
LAMOILLE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-
SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-
WESTERN CHITTENDEN-WESTERN CLINTON-WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN FRANKLIN-
WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
442 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT
AS WELL AS NORTHERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...

THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY EVERYWHERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS MONDAY. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.