Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
815 PM CST MON NOV 1 2004

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DECENT DRY
SLOT MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE
EASTERLY PROGRESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD CUT THE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE GFS MODEL
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON PLACEMENT OF THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE... AND
INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE WELL OFFSHORE BY TOMORROW MORNING. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION TOMORROW...PARTICULARLY BEFORE THE SURFACE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE FRONT IS MOVING ALONG NICELY AND SHOULD PUSH
THROUGH AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO SHAVE A FEW
PERCENTAGE POINTS OFF THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST TONIGHT/TOMORROW.
&&

.MARINE...AT 6 PM BUOY 020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 19 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 23 KNOTS AND SEAS AT 8 FEET WITH AN 8 SECOND PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
PASS OVER THE MARINE AREAS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. MODERATE
TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST ONCE THE FRONT PASSES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN
OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO WINDS AND
SEAS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE MARINE AREAS
WEDNESDAY AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN DECREASING.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE REGIONAL
AIRPORTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
REDUCING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TEMPORARILY TO MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CWA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WITH TEMPORARY MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE  REGIONAL AIRPORTS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SCA GMZ150-155-170-175.
&&

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...69
MARINE/AVIATION...63
MESO...CAMPBELL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
553 AM CST MON NOV 1 2004

TXZ248>257-021200-
BROOKS-COASTAL CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-HIDALGO-INLAND CAMERON-
INLAND WILLACY-JIM HOGG-KENEDY-STARR-ZAPATA-
553 AM CST MON NOV 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY
AND MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INTO WEST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING AND OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
TUESDAY MORNING PROVIDING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
BRING REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
FRIDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH WHICH WILL REQUIRE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

CASTILLO