Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
700 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004

.1ST PD...STRONG TSTMS HAVE KEPT WEST OF ZAPATA COUNTY SO FAR
TNGT...AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS OF DEVELOPMENT AND MVMTS SW INTO ADJ
OLE MEX SKEWS ONE TO A DRY EVENING OVR THE WRN VLY.

FM TWOAT 530 PM ISSUANCE: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE DRY TORTUGAS (BEYOND KEY WEST).
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

ISOLATED PM SHRAS/TSRAS POSSIBLE EACH PD...HIER WEST. NO CHANGES
NEEDED TO CURRENT ZFPBRO.
&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

.DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST ZONES THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. I HAVE
MODESTLY ACCEPTED THIS TREND AND INCREASED POPS A BIT OUT WEST BUT
WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THE MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OVER
MEXICO. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTION WILL PROVIDE THE
GREATEST FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MODEL TRENDS DEFINITELY GOT OUR ATTENTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RESPECT TO POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
GFS/ETA IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO GRADUALLY DEVELOPING A
SYSTEM AND THEN SENDING IT NORTHWEST TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE
MONDAY MORNING. ECMWF/UKMET DRIFT IT FURTHER WEST WITH A LESS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF. OBVIOUSLY...A LOT OF TIME
REMAINS BEFORE WE KNOW WITH CERTAINTY WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN. IN
THE INTERIM...HAVE SUBMITTED A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FRIENDLY FORECAST IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH PRIMARILY SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION IN
THE FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...AT 6 PM BUOY020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 13 TO 15 KTS
WITH SEAS 4 FEET AT 6 SECS. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE AS LOW
PRESSURE IN NORTHERN TEXAS BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO RECEDE TO 2 TO 3 FEET
TOMORROW...2 FEET AND LOWER OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE NHC IS WATCHING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE EASTERN GULF
JUST SOUTHWEST OF FLORIDA...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT COULD CHANGE WAVE
HEIGHT AND PERIOD DURING THE COMING WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY FOR ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
&&

.AVIATION...CIGS HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR OVR THE RGV...WITH A SHIELD OF
CI FM TSTM BLOW-OFF OVER WRN ZAPATA NOW. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE TOMORROW...AS LOW PRESSURE THAT DEEPENED IN NORTH TEXAS
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SCT SEABREEZE SHOWERS/TSTMS TOMORROW
WITH MORE MOISTURE AND THE WEAKER WINDS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  91  80  90  78/ 00 20 00 10 00
BROWNSVILLE          79  97  79  96  77/ 00 20 00 10 00
HARLINGEN            78  98  78  97  76/ 00 20 00 10 00
MCALLEN              77  99  77  98  75/ 05 20 00 10 05
RIO GRANDE CITY      75 100  75  99  73/ 05 20 00 10 05
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  90  81  89  79/ 05 20 00 10 00
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...58
AVIATION/MARINE...51
MESO...ABBOTT

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
600 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2004

TXZ248>257-301100-
BROOKS-COASTAL CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-HIDALGO-INLAND CAMERON-
INLAND WILLACY-JIM HOGG-KENEDY-STARR-ZAPATA-
600 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...OTHERWISE NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING
FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MARTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
511 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004

TXZ248-292315-
ZAPATA-
511 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE FORMING JUST
NORTH OF EL CENIZO IN WEBB COUNTY...

A AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO
FORM JUST NORTHWEST OF ZAPATA COUNTY...IN ADJACENT SOUTHERN WEBB
COUNTY. THIS AREA IS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST...WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT 15 MILES NORTH OF LAREDO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST INTO
ADJACENT MEXICO...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INTO ZAPATA COUNTY LATER TONIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO OR
YOUR LOCAL CABLE OUTLET...FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

PHILO