Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
235 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004

.SHORT TERM...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONV THE FIRED ALONG THE NE
MEXICAN COASTLINE IS MOVING NORTH ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE AND
IS FIRING OFF ADDITIONAL CONV ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE AND JUST
OFFSHORE.  THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING N AT 15 TO 20 MPH.  AFTERNOON
VSBL SATL IMAGERY IS SHOWING GOOD CU FORMATION AROUND THE REGION
INDICATIVE OF SOME DECENT DESTABILIZATION WITH LAPS LIS RANGING FROM
-6 TO -8 WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE LIS LOCATED OVER THE GULF WATERS AND
JUST NORTH OF THE BRO CWA. FURTHER NORTH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN TX
MORE WIDESPREAD CONV IS FIRING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 5H
CLOSED LOW LOCATED SE OF MAF.  ATTM...AM FAVORING THE ETA RESOLUTION
FOR THE MOVEMENT OF THE W TX CLOSED LOW WHICH PULLS SEVERAL IMPULSES
THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TX LATER TONIGHT AND SAT MAINTAIN A GOOD SETUP
FOR NOCTURNAL AND MORNING CONV. THE GFS QPF FIELDS LOOK A BIT
QUESTIONABLE AND GENERALLY FAVOR THE ETA QPF ALIGNMENT.  THE ETA
THEN MOVES THE 5H LOW OVER WEST TX INTO EAST TX BY 06Z SUN WHICH
PLACES DEEP SOUTH TX UNDER A MORE DRY W-SW FLOW AT 5H RESULTING IN
MUCH MORE LIMITED RAIN CHCS ON SUN AS THE BEST PVA REMAINS SITUATED
OVER EAST TX.

WILL UPDATE THE AFTERNOON ZFP TO ISSUE AN FFA FOR THE ENTIRE BRO
CWA.

WILL FAVOR THE MET FORECAST TEMPS AS OPPOSED TO THE MAV TEMPS DUE TO
THE ETAS BETTER HANDLING OF CONV CHCS.
&&

.LONG TERM...LONGER RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS MOISTURE VALUES
DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK AS 5H RIDGING BUILDS IN THE TX
COASTLINE AND THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS FURTHER WEST OVER
CENTRAL MEX AND WEST TX. WILL KEEP ISOLD/CHC POPS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK.  THE INCREASED RIDGING AND DRYING ATMS WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPS TO WARM SOMEWHAT RESULTING IN TEMPS NEAR AND ABOVE CLIMO.
&&

.MARINE...AT 2 PM BUOY 020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS AT 16 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS AND SEAS AT 4 FEET WITH A 6 SECOND PERIOD. A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH LOCATED OVER TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS.  AS A RESULT THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
OVER THE MARINE AREAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREAS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE REGIONAL
AIRPORTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MOVING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDUCE CEILINGS TO MVFR AND
TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING
TONIGHT FOR TXZ248>257.
&&

SYNOPTIC...60
MARINE/AVIATION/MESO...63

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
424 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004

TXZ248>257-261200-
BROOKS-COASTAL CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-HIDALGO-INLAND CAMERON-
INLAND WILLACY-JIM HOGG-KENEDY-STARR-ZAPATA-
424 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL 4 AM
SATURDAY...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS INTERACTS WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR. ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE
TO TWO INCHES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  SOME AREAS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS COULD POSSIBLY RECEIVE OVERALL STORM TOTALS FROM TWO TO FOUR
INCHES BY 4 AM SATURDAY MORNING. ANY INTENSE RAIN THE DEVELOPS OVER
SATURATED GROUND WILL MAKE FLASH FLOODING A CONCERN. IN ADDITION TO
THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND. BUT
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL START TO RETURN TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY IN
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR RAINFALL AND SEVERE
WEATHER REPORT. EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE ASKED TO MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS CLOSELY THIS WEEKEND.

SPEECE