Flash Flood Warning 53, NWS Brownsville, TX

000 
WGUS74 KBRO 052051
FFSBRO
TXC489-052200-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
342 PM CDT TUE OCT 5 2004

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR WESTERN WILLACY
COUNTY...

AT 342 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CITY OF 
RAYMONDVILLE IN WESTERN WILLACY COUNTY. THESE STORMS ARE NEARLY 
STATIONARY AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 
INCHES AN HOUR THROUGH 5 PM NEAR RAYMONDVILLE. 

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 2659 9768 2633 9765 2636 9783 2648 9800
      2660 9795

$$

SPEECE

000 
WGUS74 KBRO 052151
FFSBRO
TXC489-052200-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
447 PM CDT TUE OCT 5 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL WILLACY
COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELED...

AT 447 PM CDT...BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS 
THAT CREATED FLOODING OVER WILLACY COUNTY HAVE MOVED WEST NOW. 
THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL WILLACY 
COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELED.

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN MAY STILL CREATE PROBLEMS NEAR  
STREAMS AND CREEKS IN WILLACY COUNTY...ALONG WITH ROADWAY PONDING. 
PLEASE DRIVE WITH CARE TONIGHT...AND NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO 
WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. 

IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW 
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 2658 9752 2638 9752 2638 9786 2655 9787

$$

PHILO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1010 AM CDT TUE OCT 5 2004

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL AREAS OF CONV ARE CLUSTERED AROUND THE BRO
CWA.  THE AREAS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH ARE MOVING TO THE W-WNW AT
AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH THE AREA OVER WEBB COUNTY MOVING ROUGHLY
EASTWARDS AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE
CONV OVER THE SW GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE OLD TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
IN THE AREA.  RUC AND ETA GUIDANCE ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING THE BEST CONV COVERAGE TO OUR SOUTH NEAR THE SURFACE WAVE
WITH THE BEST MODEL QPF VALUES EDGING INTO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWA LATER TODAY.  THE CONV FROM THE WEST WILL
ALSO LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY A 5H SHORT WAVE LOCATED OVER THE BIG BEND
AREA.  WITH DEEP SOUTH TX SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT FOR THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  MAV AND MET GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH 60 TO 80 PERCENT VALUES INDICATED
THROUGH THURS.  THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR
THE REGION.  CURRENT GUIDANCE FROM THE WGRFC INDICATES THAT SOIL
MOISTURE LEVELS AROUND THE REGION ARE LOW ATTM AND THE CURRENT
RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT CLOSE TO EXCEEDING THE FFG.  SO BELIEVE THAT
THE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE LATER
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SOIL MOISTURE
LEVELS BECOME MORE SATURATED.  HOWEVER...WILL REEXAMINE THE
SITUATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO DECIDE IF AN FFA MAY BE REQUIRED
THEN.  WILL INCREASE CONV CHCS FOR THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON A
BIT...BUT OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE BRO GRID PACKAGE LOOKS OK.
&&

.MARINE...AT 8AM BUOY020 REPORTED EAST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 4
FEET. CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE TODAY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE WAVES ARE SEEN ON RADAR MOVING NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE MARINE ZONES. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR NEXT UPDATE. SHORT
TERM WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK GOOD.
&&

.AVIATION...AT 8AM BUOY020 REPORTED EAST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS AND SEAS
4 FEET. CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE TODAY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE WAVES ARE SEEN ON RADAR MOVING NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE MARINE ZONES. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR NEXT UPDATE. SHORT
TERM WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK GOOD.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...60
MARINE/AVIATION...64
MESO...CAMPBELL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
600 AM CDT TUE OCT 5 2004

TXZ248>257-061100-
BROOKS-COASTAL CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-HIDALGO-INLAND CAMERON-
INLAND WILLACY-JIM HOGG-KENEDY-STARR-ZAPATA-
600 AM CDT TUE OCT 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ALLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE TODAY. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL CREATE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...
BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SEAS MAY BECOME
QUITE ACTIVE ALONG THE WEST GULF COAST AS SWELLS ARE GENERATED BY A
BROAD AREA OF EAST WINDS OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. TIDES ARE RUNNING ALMOST 2 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW
WATER AND THE STRONG WAVE ACTION MAY MAGNIFY THE TIDAL EFFECTS
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. FLOOD HAZARDS PRESENTED BY VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO...THE
RISKS OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

CAFFREY