Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Brownsville, TX

000 
WGUS74 KBRO 192109
FFSBRO
TXC215-192130-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
407 PM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN HIDALGO
COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PRODUCED THE HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN HIDALGO 
COUNTY HAS WEAKENED. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT 
IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

$$

SPEECE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
325 AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...BRO UA HAS BEEN OTS SINCE
12Z FRI...AND BELIEVE MDLS ARE LOSING HOLD ON MASS FIELDS IN DEEP S
TX NOW. DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS...STRONG TSTMS W/HVY RAFL DEVELOPED
OVR CAMERON COUNTY AND POINTS WEST IN SRN HIDALGO COUNTY...WITH RAFL
TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES RECEIVED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE GENERALLY
SOUTH OF DONNA AND PHARR. BELIEVE MDLS HAVING TROUBLE IDENTIFYING
THE NRN-MOST INFLUENCE OF EASTERLY WAVE MVG JUST SOUTH OF DOMINANT
H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVR TX BIG BEND. BRO AND HRL ROSE TO 92 SAT...MFE
90 IN A GENERAL EAST FLOW OF 10 KTS.

CLIMFE FM 427 PM SAT SHOWS NO RAFL IN MFE SAT...WITH OBS INDICATING
NEARLY 1/2 INCH RAFL TOTALS FM 5 TO 7 PM. BRO RECORDED 0.10 INCH AT
THE AIRPORT...WITH KBRO DOPPLER ESTIMATES A LARGE SWATH OF 1 INCH
TOTALS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CITY.

CURRENT EARLY MRNG KBRO REF SHOWS SHRA DEVELOPMENT OVR CAMERON AND
WILLACY COUNTY...WITH A LONG LINE OF SCT SHRAS EXTENDING SE INTO OLE
MEX WATERS. SHRA OVR BRO ATTM (06Z). THIS RADAR PICTURE USUALLY
SUGGESTS CONTINUED MSTR CONVERGENCE TO THE RGV WITH TIME...SKEWING
TO HIER POPS FOR SUN PM. AFTER THE PAST TWO DAYS OF
CONVECTION...BELIEVE MORE OF THE SAME IS A GOOD BET FOR LATER THIS
AM AND PM...AND WILL HONE 1ST PD TO MATCH SAT WX IN DEEP S TX. MON
CUD BE A REPEAT ALSO...AS MORE AVAILABLE SHRTWV ENERGY AND PLENTY OF
MSTR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN AND AMPLE H7 UVM IN REGION IS SUGGESTED.
&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...STRONG 5H TROF DIGS INTO THE
ROCKIES BY WED PM...DRAWING PACIFIC MSTR OVR ADJ MEX INTO OUR
REGION. ISOLATED SHRAS TUE SHUD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WED. AS ROCKY
UPPER TROF LIFTS NE...SUM RESPITE FM RAINS WILL BE EXPERIENCED THU
AND EARLY FRI...WITH A WET WEEKEND PROGD...AS A BROAD UPPER TROF
DIGS SOUTH TO THE RGV.
&&

.MARINE...MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SEAS WERE
NEAR 3 FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 13 KNOTS. 00Z ETA80 MODEL RUN
PROGS LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT BEFORE BACKING TO THE EAST MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS PROGGED TO BRING
DRIER AIR INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY. AM RELUCTANT TO
REMOVE CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER TX COAST AS 500MB TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST U.S. MOVES EASTWARD TUESDAY TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. TO SHIFT
EASTWARD. WITH SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. COASTLINE
TUESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW TO PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
500MB RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED BY
THE 00Z GFS90 MODEL RUN TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY
FROM THE REMNANT FEATURE OF IVAN AND DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
GULF AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA. THIS SCENARIO IS HIGHLY SUSPECT
SO WILL NOT BITE ON THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING. WILL CONTINUE WITH EAST
FLOW VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY WITH A PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WEST TX. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE STREAMS OF SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO MVFR TO IFR LEVELS WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL RAIN SHOWERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  91  77  91  76  91 /  40  20  20   5   20
BROWNSVILLE          92  75  92  74  92 /  40  20  20   5   20
HARLINGEN            92  74  92  74  92 /  40  20  20   5   20
MCALLEN              91  75  91  74  91 /  40  10  20   5   20
RIO GRANDE CITY      93  74  92  73  92 /  40   5  10   5   10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   90  78  90  77  89 /  40  20  20   5   20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

58/61

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
600 AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004

TXZ248>257-201100-
BROOKS-COASTAL CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-HIDALGO-INLAND CAMERON-
INLAND WILLACY-JIM HOGG-KENEDY-STARR-ZAPATA-
600 AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE FORECAST
FOR TODAY. FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY BE RECEIVED IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS. THESE HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS
ON AREAS ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
REMEMBER...IF CONFRONTED WITH WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH WHILE
DRIVING...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

58