Flash Flood Warning 44, NWS Brownsville, TX

000 
WGUS74 KBRO 310220
FFSBRO
TXC505-310300-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
917 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN ZAPATA
COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

AT 917 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ZAPATA COUNTY HAVE 
WEAKENED AND ARE NO LONGER PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS.  

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO 
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED... 
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 2703 9897 2678 9896 2676 9910 2701 9915

$$

SPEECE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED LONG TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
230 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004

.SHORT TERM...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOW BUILDING OVER WEBB AND
DUVAL COUNTY ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STATIONARY
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE SOUTHERN HILL COUNTRY. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THESE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPAWN ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
IS CURRENTLY ALONG COASTAL WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES MOVING
INLAND FROM EAST TO WEST...AND MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE SUNSET.
&&

.LONG RANGE...ALL EYES LOOK TO THE GULF AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED TO THE WEST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MODELS WITH ITS TRACK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE ITS
MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHWEST AND HAVE IT GETTING PICKED UP BY THE UPPER
TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
DRIFTING BY TO THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
ENHANCE THE DAILY SEABREEZE SHOWERS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE
SEAS MID TO LATE WEEK. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS DO NOT AMPLIFY THE
PLAINS TROUGH AND CONTINUE THE GULF LOW ON A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH
THE GULF. THIS WOULD ALSO ALLOW THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO WEST
TEXAS TO MOVE IN EARLIER...PUSHING THE GULF SYSTEM FARTHER INTO
MEXICO. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE GULF LOW COULD MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST THEN GET SHEARED IN HALF BUT THE TROUGH PULLING MOST OF IT
NORTH AND THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE PULLING A SMALLER SECTION OF IT
SOUTH...WHICH IS WHAT THE GFS HINTS AT. IN ANY CASE THE LOW IS
MOVING INTO AN AREA THAT ISNT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING
BEFORE REACHING LAND. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WE WILL HOLD ON TO OUR
INITIAL FORECAST OF THE SYSTEM GETTING CAUGHT BY THE PLAINS TROUGH.
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WOULD REMAIN IN DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUING WITH THE
DAILY SEABREEZE CONVECTION AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM NEW MEXICO PULLING IN MUCH
DRIER AIR INTO MID LEVELS PUTTING MORE OF A CAP ON CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.
&&

.MARINE...LATEST REPORT FROM BUOY020 INDICATING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS NEAR 4 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 3 FEET. SUBSIDING SEAS LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN TEXAS WEAKENS AND
MOVES NORTHEAST. SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY NOTED WELL OFFSHORE, AND THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS LIKELY
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 18Z/31. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SEABREEZE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNSET.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  90  80  90  80/ 10 10 10 10 10
BROWNSVILLE          80  95  78  97  79/ 10 10 10 20 10
HARLINGEN            79  96  78  97  78/ 10 10 10 20 10
MCALLEN              79  97  78  99  78/ 40 20 10 20 10
RIO GRANDE CITY      77 100  78 101  78/ 40 30 10 20 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  89  80  90  80/ 10 10 10 10 10
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...64
AVIATION/MARINE...53/66
MESO...VEGA/MARTINEZ

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
424 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004

TXZ248>257-311000-
BROOKS-COASTAL CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-HIDALGO-INLAND CAMERON-
INLAND WILLACY-JIM HOGG-KENEDY-STARR-ZAPATA-
424 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY WITH SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING
FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

CASTILLO