Special Marine Warning 9, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
602 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL TONIGHT...

.UPDATE
ATMOSPHERE CLEARLY SIGNALING SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT AND WSR-88DS
CERTAINLY PROVING THAT TO BE CORRECT TO OUR WEST.  POTENTIAL ACRS THE
AREA WILL BE FROM THESE SUPERCELLS EVOLVING INTO BOW COMPLEXES AS
THEY RACE E/NE TONIGHT. THE WRN PART OF FA...GENERALLY ORH W AND NRN
CT CURRENTLY SEEING ADVECTION OF HIGHER TD AIR WHICH IS HELPING TO
DESTABILIZE THE LOWEST LEVELS.

TO THE EAST...WHILE A MARINE LAYER IS IN PLACE...BELIEVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WNDS WHERE
THIS ACTIVITY MOVES THRU.  NOT UNLIKE THE MINI SUPERCELL WHICH
DROPPED ACRS CT LATE NIGHT.

AS AN ASIDE...LINE OF SVR STORMS WHICH RAPIDLY FORMED MID
AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST SHORE OF BUZZARDS BAY...PRODUCED SEVERE HAIL
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE CSTL WATERS IN THIS GENERAL MARINE
ENVIRONMENT.  OUR CONCERN IS THAT GIVEN THE DYNAMICS THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR THE ACTIVITY TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT APPROACHS THE
COAST.

REMAINDER OF DISC FROM AFTN ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED INTO EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS BY
MID AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY HAS FIRED OVER THE CAPE AND OUTER-
WATERS. THERE WERE A FEW HOLES THAT DEVELOPED IN THE OVERCAST DOWN
THERE WHICH ALLOWED THE SHALLOW FRONT TO MIX BACK TO THE NORTH.
THIS RESULTED IN ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THAT REGION.

MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS COME TO A TEMPORARY END OVER
OUR WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...THE EARLIER CONVECTION HAS LEFT SOME
SORT OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS
INTO CONNECTICUT. YOU CAN SEE THE SUBTLE BOUNDARY ON OUR LATEST
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY. PARTIAL CLEARING WAS ALSO PUSHING INTO OUR
WESTERN ZONES...SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 70S
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS REMANENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WIND/SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. IN FACT SURFACE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS RIGHT OFF THE DECK TURN QUICKLY TO THE
WEST...SO WE STILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO
WHERE SURFACE HELICITY CAN BE ENHANCED. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS EVENING.

THE ACTIVITY THAT FORMS OUT WEST THIS EVENING...WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE
STABLE...ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW REPORTS OF DIME SIZE HAIL. OTHERWISE...ANY THUNDERSTORM
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

ONCE THE CONVECTION ENDS...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN INVADE
THE REGION. ALSO...HAVE ADDED SOME DRIZZLE TO THE NORTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS COAST. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR REASONABLE...BUT
ARE PROBABLY TOO WARM ON THE COAST WITH THE MARINE LAYER.
&&

.LONG RANGE (TUESDAY THROUGH SUN)...
ONGOING WX PRECLUDES ASSIGNMENT OF ANY EXCEPTIONAL CONFIDENCE BEYOND
A GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/ETA BLEND.

POPS...BASICALLY RAISED POPS WED AND FRIDAY. HAVE SOME MEASUREABLE
POTENTIAL TOMORROW (TUESDAY) IN THE MORNING MIST AFTR 12Z ACROSS NE
MASS AND THEN A SMALL CHC OF SHWRS VCNTY THE WARMER AIR IJD-BDL-ORE-
ORH REGION TUE AFTN (WK SFC LOW AND CNV).

TEMPS...FCST EVEN CHILLIER THAN AVBL GUIDANCE TEMPS IN NE MASS
TUESDAY AND GENERALLY SELECTED THE COLDER GFS FOR TEMPS OVERALL
FOR SNE ON TUE...THE AREA IT MAY BREAK OUT WARM IS BDL NNW TOWARD
E SLOPES BERKSHIRE COUNTY. REST OF TEMP FCST DEPARTURES ARE MEAGER
AND NO CONFIDENCE DEVIATING FROM GUIDANCE.  FOG IN THE FCST FOR THE
NEXT 48 HRS.
&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WERE BREAKING OUT WEST BY MID AFTERNOON AND THEIR WERE
EVEN A FEW BREAKS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE EAST. FIRST BATCH OF
THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING OFF THE COAST...BUT WILL DEVELOP OUT WEST
TOWARD EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN AFFECT THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AFTER THE CONVECTION MOVES OUT.
&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL RESULT IN SOME
5 FOOT SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS OVERNIGHT. ALSO...MAY
HAVE 5 FOOT SEAS TOWARD DAY BREAK IN THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN WATERS...AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SCA TONIGHT FOR ANZ250 AND ANZ255.

.NEAR/SHORT TERM (THRU 11Z TUE)...FRANK/WAS
.LONG TERM (12Z TUE-NEXT MON)...DRAG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
614 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-251000-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-
NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
614 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS EAST OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY...SOUTHWEST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND ALL OF RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MASSACHUSETTS...EXCEPT
NANTUCKET...CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND UNTIL 11 PM.  PLEASE
SEE OTHER WATCH AND WARNING PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY OR SUNDAY.

SATURDAY MAY HAVE SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL OUT
TO SEA ALONG THE FRONT THAT MOVES OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS PRODUCT CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB SITE...WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ER/BOX

DRV/FRANK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
903 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

MAZ004-005-026-250130-
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX COUNTY MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX
COUNTY MA-
903 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN WORCESTER
COUNTY AND WILL ENTER NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX COUNTY...

AT 902 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR TEMPLETON AND ATHOL...MOVING EAST
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  WESTMINSTER...WESTFORD...TYNGSBORO...TOWNSEND...TEMPLETON...
  SHIRLEY...PHILLIPSTON...PETERSHAM...PEPPERELL...LUNENBURG...
  LEOMINSTER...GROTON...GARDNER...FITCHBURG...DUNSTABLE...
  CHELMSFORD...AYER...ATHOL...ASHBY AND ASHBURNHAM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

DELLICARPINI
FIELD

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
938 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

CTZ002-003-MAZ009-011-250230-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-
938 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

AT 935 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...FROM SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY INTO NORTHWEST LITCHFIELD COUNTY.  THE LINE OF
STORMS WAS MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH HAMPDEN COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS AND
HARTFORD COUNTY CONNECTICUT BETWEEN 945 PM AND 1030 PM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

DELLICARPINI
FIELD

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