Special Marine Warning 39, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
405 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 2004

...A ROUND OF SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IN MORNING
TSTMS...THEN REGENERATING THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGER HAIL AND
STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
PRODUCING MANY REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN. THUS FAR ONLY ONE REPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER...NICKEL SIZE HAIL
IN HARTFORD COUNTY AT 225 AM.  EXPECTING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
MOVING EAST AND EXIT EASTERN MA 10-12Z.

CONVECTION WILL REFIRE BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY...AS SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS WELL WEST (NY STATE & PA) OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.  IN
ADDITION...LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION WILL FURTHER
AID AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOP. ATMOSPHERE FURTHER DESTABILIZES TODAY
WITH ALL CONVECTIVE INDICES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MODERATE
INSTABILITY.  STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING COUPLED WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AND THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER.

HIGHEST RISK WILL LIKELY BE EASTERN CT...RI...SOUTHEAST NH AND
EASTERN THIRD OF MA.  FARTHER WEST...LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN VEERING
TO WEST BY MIDDAY...AS FRONT ENTERS CT RIVER VALLEY.  THIS WILL
LIMIT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THUS LOWER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER CT
RIVER VALLEY.  GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS OF 8500-9000 KFT...THREAT OF LARGE HAIL EXIST.  WIND FIELD
NOT VERY STRONG...HOWEVER MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST STRONG
UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH COLLAPSING CELLS.  WE WILL
ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS) LATER THIS MORNING TO ADDRESS
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVE OFFSHORE.  DRIER AND LESS HUMID
AIRMASS BEGINS TO ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
GIVEN ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY...DID NOT SPEND MUCH TIME WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
DATABASE MATCHES UP WELL WITH LATEST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE...SO NO
CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
IN THE SHORT TERM...ONLY CONCERN ARE WINDS APPROACHING 25 KT TODAY IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW.  HIGHEST WIND WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND NEAR
SHORE GIVEN STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND CORRESPONDING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES.  VSBY LOWERING THIS MORNING IN PATCHY FOG AND IN
TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTH COAST THIS MORNING.  STRATUS WILL ERODE
LATER THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR CONDITIONS.  PATCHY
FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS WILL BURN OFF TOWARD MIDDAY AS WELL.  MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON IN TSTMS...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NOCERA/STRAUSS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
609 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 2004

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-030930-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-
NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
609 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS EAST OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY...SOUTHWEST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND ALL OF RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS BY 8 AM.  A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS.  A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY TURN SEVERE...WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  THE
HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE
ACROSS EASTERN CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MOST OF MASSACHUSETTS...EXCLUDING THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS USHERING IN A DRIER AND LESS
HUMID AIRMASS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS DEFINITELY REQUESTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THANKS SKYWARN

THIS PRODUCT CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB SITE...WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ER/BOX

NOCERA

MAZ005-007-014>016-021830-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 2 2004

AT 202 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL OVER MEDFORD MASSACHUSETTS...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CHELSEA...EAST BOSTON...REVERE AND SOUTH BOSTON AROUND 210 PM
  WINTHROP...NAHANT AND SWAMPSCOTT AROUND 215 PM
  MARBLEHEAD AROUND 220 PM

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO MOVE OVER BOSTON HARBOR NEAR 230 PM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE
STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

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