Special Marine Warning 3, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1256 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

...CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MEM DAY WEEKEND
DOES NOT COMPLETELY LOOK DEVOID OF HEAVY CONVECTION...

.PATTERN...
PATTERN STILL LOOKS OVERALL AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS NEXT 10 DAYS AS
CONTINUE TUSSLING WITH A 5H RDG IN THE SE USA. THIS MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO GET 3 ST DAYS OF DRY WEATHER.  TEMPS WILL SURGE BACK AND
FORTH. NOT THAT CONFIDENT OF THE BIG COOL OUTBREAK ADVERTIZED BY THE
00Z/24 GFS ENS.  IT WILL COOL DOWN AT 8H BUT IT MIGHT BE DELAYED
UNTIL THE WEEKEND. LOOKS ACTIVE NEXT WEEK OR SO. DRAG
&&

1239 PM UPDATE FROM HAYDEN BLO.

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SQUALL LINE HAS JUST ENTERED THE
WESTERN PART OF HAMPSHIRE COUNTY. ALBANY DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A
PRETTY GOOD REAR IN FLOW NOTCH IN THAT REGION...SO A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAMPSHIRE COUNTY. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THIS INITIAL LINE WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS.

THIS SQUALL LINE WAS RACING THROUGH THE REGION AT 45 MPH AND SHOULD
BE GONE IN A FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE MAY
ACTUALLY PROMOTE PARTIAL CLEARING. THEREFORE...STILL EXPECT O SEE
SOME SUNSHING IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHERN NEW
HAMSPHIRE. THEREFORE...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL
INTO THE 70S INTO THE LOWER 80S. MORE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL (ROTATING) THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES. THEREFORE...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR A TORNADO...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHERE HELICITY WILL BE ENAHCED.
&&

.LONG RANGE (TUESDAY THROUGH SUN)...
MUCH MORE LATER ONCE WE GET A HANDLE. CONCENTRATING FIRST 72 HRS OF
LR DUE TO ONGOING WX. DRAG

&&

.AVIATION...
MORE LATER FROM HAYDEN...

&&

.MARINE...
FOR THE SHORT TERM...EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT TODAY...BUT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD KICK SEAS UP
TO NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FEET TONIGHT.  WILL HAVE HEADLINES FOR POSSIBLE
SMALL CRAFT FOR SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON WED AS WINDS INCREASE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE WED NIGHT AND THU. WINDS
MAY INCREASE AGAIN FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

.NEAR/SHORT TERM...FRANK/WAS
.LONG TERM 12Z TUE-NEXT MON)...DRAG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1201 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-251100-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-
NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
1201 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS EAST OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY...SOUTHWEST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND ALL OF RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PLEASE SEE OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
(BOSSPSBOX) FOR MUCH MORE INFORMATION ON THIS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY OR SUNDAY.

SATURDAY MAY HAVE SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL OUT
TO SEA ALONG THE FRONT THAT MOVES OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS PRODUCT CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB SITE...WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ER/BOX

/FRANK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1030 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>004-006>008-242200-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-
DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-EASTERN KENT RI-
EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-NANTUCKET MA-
NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
1030 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER CONNECTICUT...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NEW YORK
STATE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
OVER 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...A SECOND CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL TO THE SIZE OF DIMES. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED
IN THIS AREA AFTER 12 PM.

AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COME MORE
UNSTABLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
CONNECTICUT. THEREFORE...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THIS REGION AND SOME WILL BECOME SEVERE. IN ADDITION...WIND
PROFILES IN THE LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND EVEN A
TORNADO.

EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EVOLVE INTO A COMPLEX
THIS EVENING AND TRACK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. EVEN AS
THESE STORMS MOVE INTO THE COLDER AIR OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS...
THEY STILL WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF DIMES.
ALSO...ANY THUNDERSTORM MAY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGER SITUATION...SO PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR
FURTHER UPDATES. SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AFTER 12 PM.

FRANK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1156 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

CTZ002-003-MAZ002-003-008>011-NHZ011-241700-
CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE
MA-HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN
MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
1156 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

AT 1151 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES
WEST OF MONROE TO 45 MILES WEST OF TOLLAND...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF NORTH ADAMS TO 3 MILES NORTH OF
RHINEBECK...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEY...AFFECTING CHESHIRE...FRANKLIN...HAMPSHIRE...HAMPDEN AND
HARTFORD AND TOLLAND COUNTIES BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

VALLEE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1254 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>004-008>012-026-NHZ011-015-241815-
CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE
MA-HARTFORD CT-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX COUNTY
MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-TOLLAND CT-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH
NH-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE
MA-WINDHAM CT-
1254 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

AT 1250 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH AND SMALL HAIL 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF TOLLAND MASSACHUSETTS...OR
ABOUT 14 MILES EAST OF GREAT BARRINGTON MASSACHUSETTS...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

STRAUSS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
149 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

MAZ004>007-014-015-NHZ012-241815-
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX COUNTY MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH
NH-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-WESTERN
ESSEX MA-
149 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

AT 145 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
3 MILES SOUTH OF DURHAM NEW HAMPSHIRE TO 2 MILES SOUTH OF LOWELL
MASSACHUSETTS TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF FRAMINGHAM MASSACHUSETTS...
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE BOSTON VICINITY AND NORTH SHORE
LOCATIONS BY 230 PM.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCAL STREET FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

STRAUSS

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