Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
344 PM EDT THU JUL 8 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER REGION THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RIBBONS OF
VORTICITY AND INSTABILITY ROTATING THROUGH...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...THEN AGAIN IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST. DESPITE LOOSING DAY TIME HEATING WITH SETTING SUN...
ELEVATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE TONIGHT. EARLY FRIDAY...EASTERN MASS IN
FAVORED LEFT FRONT QUAD OF UPPER JET...SO MORNING SHOWERS AND TSTMS
POSSIBLE EVEN THOUGH MOS GUIDANCE OFFERING NO CHANCE. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALSO INCREASES OVER SE MASS BETWEEN 12-18Z. UPPER TROUGH
DOES NOT PASS OVER UNTIL AFTERNOON...AFTERWHICH DRYING THROUGH THE
LEVELS TAKES PLACE.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FCSTS.  GENERALLY MINOR TWEAKING.  WITH FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION...SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT AND OUT TO
SEA SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.  MODELS HINTING THAT WAVE MAY BE A BIT
CLOSER TO THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY. AS
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...MODEL IS VASCILATING ON THIS. LAST NIGHT
MODEL SUGGESTED A LITTLE SLOWER...THIS RUN SEEMS TO BE BACK TO
EARLIER THINKING.

LONG RANGE GFS SUGGESTS NEXT LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
ABOUT MID WEEK REACHING THE MARITIMES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

I DID TWEAK SOME TEMPERATURES BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE NUMBERS...
WHICH LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM. WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED FOR THIS
WEEKEND...NO MARINE PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
634 AM EDT THU JUL 8 2004

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-091000-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-
NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
634 AM EDT THU JUL 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS EAST OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY...SOUTHWEST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND ALL OF RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO THE WEST OF HARTFORD CT...WORCESTER MA AND LAWRENCE MA.
THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE AFTER 4 PM.  HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT
FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER FRIDAY...BRINGING AN END TO
THE SHOWERS.  HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SKYWARN
FOLKS SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
WEATHER THURSDAY.

THIS PRODUCT CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB SITE...WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ER/BOX

BELK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
511 PM EDT THU JUL 8 2004

MAZ002-003-008-082145-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
511 PM EDT THU JUL 8 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM INTO FRANKLIN COUNTY...

AT 505 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CUMMINGTON...OR ABOUT 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF NORTHAMPTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...BUCKLAND AND HEATH BY 520 PM EDT.

FRANK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
550 PM EDT THU JUL 8 2004

MAZ002-003-082230-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
550 PM EDT THU JUL 8 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER FRANKLIN COUNTY...

AT 549 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL AND 40 MPH WIND GUSTS 3 MILES
NORTHEAST OF ASHFIELD...OR ABOUT 8 MILES WEST OF GREENFIELD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...SHELBURNE AND GREENFIELD BY 600 PM
EDT...LEYDEN AND COLRAIN BY 610 PM EDT.

FRANK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
608 PM EDT THU JUL 8 2004

NHZ011-082300-
CHESHIRE NH-
608 PM EDT THU JUL 8 2004

AT 602 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH
AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES NORTH
OF ALSTEAD TO 20 MILES WEST OF WALPOLE TO 80 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WALPOLE NEW HAMPSHIRE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...ALSTEAD AND WALPOLE BY 7 PM EDT.

HEAVY RAINS BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM MAY BRIEFLY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS
SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY OF
NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS AT 6 PM WERE IN
VERMONT.

DRAG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
649 PM EDT THU JUL 8 2004

CTZ002-082315-
HARTFORD CT-
649 PM EDT THU JUL 8 2004

AT 644 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER AVON...OR ABOUT 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF WEST
HARTFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...BLOOMFIELD BY 700 PM EDT...6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HARTFORD BY 710 PM EDT...WINDSOR AND WINDSOR LOCKS BY
720 PM EDT.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT.

DRAG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 PM EDT THU JUL 8 2004

CTZ002-003-MAZ003-004-010-011-NHZ011-015-082330-
CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE
MA-HARTFORD CT-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-TOLLAND CT-WESTERN AND CENTRAL
HILLSBOROUGH NH-
705 PM EDT THU JUL 8 2004

AT 701 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER SUFFIELD...OR ABOUT 4 MILES NORTH OF WINDSOR
LOCKS...MOVING NORTHEAST.  ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS NEARING ERVING
IN FRANKLIN COUNTY.  ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS NEAR BELLOWS FALLS IN
WESTERN CHESHIRE COUNTY NEW HAMPSHIRE.

STORMS WERE MOVING EAST NORTHEAST.

IT WILL BE AN ACTIVE EVENING IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTH CENTRAL CONNECTICUT.

BE PREPARED FOR POWER OUTAGES...SMALL DOWNED BRANCHES AND SMALL HAIL
IN A FEW SPOTS OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY DURING THE NEXT HOUR.

DRAG
DRAG