Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
306 PM MDT FRI JUL 9 2004

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOW A MUCH IMPROVED
ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE LAST
TWO.  FIFTIES AND LOW 60S DEW POINTS ABOUND ACROSS THE PLAINS.
DECENT SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN THE UPSTREAM ASSURES
THIS FETCH OF MOISTURE TO CONTINUE.  CURRENT WATER VAPOR PICTURES
ARE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT PLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  CURRENT RADARS
ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTION STARTING IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE FRONT
RANGE...BUT LITTLE ON THE PLAINS YET.  THE LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS
WITH DENVERS CURRENT OBSERVED TEMPERATE AND DEW POINT VALUES SHOW
CAPES IN THE 2000-3000 JOULES/KG RANGE.  CROSS SECTIONS SHOW VERY
GOOD POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THROUGH THE EVENING TONIGHT.  LAPSE
FIELDS ARE STILL SHOWING A BIT OF CIN OUT ON THE PLAINS.  WITH
NEARLY CLOUD FREE SKIES OUT THERE STILL AND SOME OUTFLOWS MOVING
ABOUT FROM THE FOOTHILLS CONVECTIONS IT WILL ONLY BE A MATTER OF
TIME UNTIL IT GOES ON THE PLAINS.  WILL UP POPS A BIT THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM LIKELY COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO MOVES
EASTWARD A BIT AND FLATTEN DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH EMBEDDED.   THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AT
ABOUT 50 KNOTS IN THE JET LEVEL.  CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PRETTY DECENT
MOISTURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.  THERE
IS A BIT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT PROGGED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
..THEN SUBSIDENCE IS PROGGED OVER US BY LATE IN THE DAY.  GRIDS SHOW
THE THETA-E AXIS OVER THE PLAINS MOST OF THE DAY...THEN PARTIALLY
FLUSH IT EASTWARD BY 00Z LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  THE BEST CAPE IS
OVER THE EAST AND LASTS LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY ON THE CROSS SECTIONS IS LESS THEN THIS EVENINGS AND
THERE IS MORE A MID LEVEL CAP AROUND ON SATURDAY.  WILL LEAVE THE
20% POPS GOING.  FOR TEMPERATURES...GRIDS SHOW SATURDAYS HIGHS
ABOUT 0.5 TO 1.5 C COOLER THEN TODAYS.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH CHANGES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS SMACK OVER COLORADO.  ENOUGH LOW AND SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. FOR
SATURDAY EVENING...A WEAK WAVE SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS SO BOOSTED POPS INTO THE SCATTERED CATEGORY OUT THERE.  THE
TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS A BIT TOUGH WITH SUCH WEAK FLOW ALOFT...SO
LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO ADJUST POPS FURTHER TO ACCOUNT FOR SPEED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMING ABOVE 90F AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM AND ATMOSPHERE DRIES A BIT
BEHIND UPPER WAVE.

BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO PUSH A
FRONT THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO.  WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR
THOSE PERIODS AND KEEP COOLER TEMPS ALREADY IN FORECAST.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

KOOPMEINERS/BARJENBRUCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1059 AM MDT FRI JUL 09 2004

COZ030>051-101200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1059 AM MDT FRI JUL 09 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLENTY OF MOISTURE...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...ALONG WITH
AMPLE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BY 1
PM...THEN OUT ON THE PLAINS BY 3 PM.

THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS.  FURTHER REFINEMENTS REGARDING THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE ADDRESSED IN FUTURE UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 1 PM.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
247 PM MDT FRI JUL 09 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     HAIL             2 S TINY TOWN           39.57N 105.22W
07/09/2004  0.75 INCH        JEFFERSON          CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JK