Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
254 PM MDT WED JUL 7 2004

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE AND RADAR PICTURES ARE SHOWING MINIMAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS
HITTING THE GROUND IN GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES AT THIS TIME...BUT
THATS IT.  PROFILERS ARE SHOWING WEAK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.  GRIDS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER US TO FLATTEN
SOMEWHAT AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD WELL NORTH OF HERE
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  GRIDS SHOW WEAK WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER US OVERNIGHT...THEN MORE DUE WESTERLY FLOW OVER US TO INCREASE
A BIT ON THURSDAY.  GRID SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.
CURRENT LAPS DATA AND ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL CAPE VALUES FOR
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND GRIDS SHOW
THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING.  CROSS SECTION SHOW SOME
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...BUT THATS IT.  WILL KEEP 10% POPS
IN FOR ALPINE AREAS AND IMMEDIATE PLAINS THIS EVENING.  FOR
THURSDAY...CROSS SECTIONS SHOW IT DRY AGAIN...EVEN LESS MOISTURE
ALOFT.  THE THETA-E AXIS IS PROGGED TO STAY EAST OF THE BORDER
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  CROSS SECTION SHOW GOOD POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY BUT A BIT OF A MID LEVEL CAP WITH ALL THIS WARMING
ABOUT.  IT ALL POINTS TO VERY LIMITED POPS FOR THE HIGH AREAS BY
AFTERNOON...THATS IT.  FOR TEMPERATURES...THICKNESS GRIDS SHOW IT
1-2 C WARMER THEN THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...WEAK SHORT WAVE BRUSHES THE FORECAST AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT EVEN THEN MOISTURE IS LIMITED
MOST AREAS.  IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER...THERE IS A THREAT OF MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND SEVERE STORMS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR INCREASING
TO 35 KTS.  CAPES SHOULD ALSO GET A BOOST FROM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTED IN BY NEBRASKA/KANSAS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.  ADDED A 20
PERCENT CHANCE TO THOSE AREAS AND LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO INCREASE
FURTHER IF ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS ARE CORRECT.  BY FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH FLOW
ALOFT WEAKENING.  MODELS SHOW AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK WAVE
MOVING UP IN LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE.  MID LEVEL TEMPS START TO WARM AS WELL SO CUT
BACK POPS A BIT INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE.

STRING OF NEAR 90F DEGREE HEAT SHOULD LAST FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING AND LACK OF
ANY FRONTS.  NOT MUCH HOPE FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS SINCE AIRMASS IS SO WARM AND NO REAL
FORCING EVIDENT.  ANY TRUE MONSOONAL FLOW NOT FORESEEN EITHER.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

KOOPMEINERS/BARJENBRUCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1117 AM MDT WED JUL 07 2004

COZ030>051-081200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1117 AM MDT WED JUL 07 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD TO THE EAST OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS BUT LITTLE RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

EACH DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...MOST STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.  FURTHER
REFINEMENTS REGARDING THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN FUTURE UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.