Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
250 PM MDT SUN JUL 4 2004

.SHORT TERM...FOR TNGT...WEAK UPPER TROF WILL MOVE E OF THE STATE
OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN ITS WAKE.  SFC BASED
CAPES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WATCH AREA RANGED FROM 2000-2800 J/KG
WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR LARGE HAIL...MID LEVELS COOLER AS WELL.
MOST OF THE TS WILL DIE OFF BY MIDNIGHT.  ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR
...MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DONE BY EARLY EVENING.  AS FOR
MONDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY FROM NW WY INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA/NWRN NEBRASKA BY 00Z MONDAY.  INCREASING SHEAR WITH 60 KT JET
AT 300 MB OVR CENTRAL WY WILL BE BRUSHING NRN COLORADO IN THE
AFTERNOON.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF MAY MAKE ITS
WAY INTO THE CWFA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  FCST CAPES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 800 J/KG ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TO 1800
J/KG NEAR STERLING.  ETA BUFFER SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW WEAK UPSLOPE
DEVELOPING TO JUST BELOW 700 MB BY 00Z TUESDAY.  WILL HEDGE POPS UP
SLIGHTLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALL IN ALL SCT
POPS MOST AREAS WILL SUFFICE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...NW FLOW PATTERN BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED
AS STRONGER WAVE IN THE NW FLOW PATTERN BRUSHES NERN CO MON NITE
WITH ASSOCIATED COLD PUSH AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS BY MIDNIGHT. TUESDAY
WILL START OUT COOLER WITH SOME STRATUS ACROSS NERN CO. THIS DOES
NOT APPEAR TO DEEP AS AIRMASS ABLE TO BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN BY LATER
TUE AFTN. WILL HAVE HIR POPS IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS WITH LESSER
CHANCES ACROSS FAR NERN CO.

STILL LOOKING DRIER AND WARMER FOR WED-THU AS RIDGING ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE. STILL EXPECT ISOLD TS AS HARD TO REALLY FLUSH OUT
ALL THE MSTR AS EVIDENCE THE LAST FEW DAYS. NEXT MAJOR WAVE MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW LATE IN THE WEAK RESULTING IN INCREASING SW FLOW
ALOFT. THERE MAY BE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AGAIN BY FRI AS A PORTION OF
THAT ENERGY SHIFTS ACROSS NRN PLAINS LATE FRI/SAT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

COOPER/ENTREKIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1034 AM MDT SUN JUL 04 2004

COZ030>051-051200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1034 AM MDT SUN JUL 04 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEW RAYMER TO FORT MORGAN TO LIMON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST THEY WILL ENCOUNTER BETTER
MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS TODAY WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO MONDAY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO.

A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WITH
ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

COOPER/ENTREKIN