Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
210 PM MDT SAT JUL 3 2004

.SHORT TERM...FOR TNGT...UPR RIDGE WILL BE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING TO
THE EAST AS A TROF OVR THE GREAT BASIN APPROACHES SWRN COLORADO.
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN AND EVENING WILL
OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF A DRY LINE BOUNDARY THE EXTENDS FROM JUST
NORTH OF COLORADO SPRINGS TO LIMON TO AKRON TO STERLING.  LAPS DATA
INDICATES CAPES OVER 2000 J/KG THERE THIS AFTN.  THERE IS SOME CIN
ALSO BUT OUTFLOW FM STORM MOVING THROUGH SERN WY SHOULD HELP TO
TRIGGER A CELL OR TWO.  ELSEWHERE MUCH DRIER AIR HAS MIXED INTO THE
REGION SO GUSTY WINDS WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
THERE.  A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS EARLIER PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
NERN PLAINS...BUT THAT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STALL NEAR THE BORDER
OVERNIGHT.  AS FOR SUNDAY...UPPER TROF FM THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE WITH SOME WEAK QG ASCENT EVIDENT AFTER 18Z.
INTERACTIVE SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR
...500-1000 J/KG...WITH THE MAIN THETA-E AXIS OVER THE ERN COLORADO
BORDERS.  CAPES IN THOSE AREAS WILL BE AROUND 1500 J/KG BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  WILL GO WITH SCT EVERYWHERE...WITH HIGH BASED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR.  BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DECENT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN
BORDER. COULD BE SEVERE THERE AS WELL WITH THE BEST COMBINATION OF
LIFT...MSTR AND SHEAR IN THAT AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
SUN EVENING WILL LIE ACROSS FAR NERN CO WITH DEEPER MSTR AND BETTER
SHEAR AVAILABLE. LOW LVLS TOO DRY FURTHER WEST WITH MAINLY GUSTY
WINDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES WITH THE STORMS. COVERAGE EVERYWHERE STILL
IN THE SCATTERED RANGE DUE TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM SYSTEM
EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF SRN CA. BIGGER CHANGES ON STORE FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING NW AND DECENT WAVE BRUSHES NE
CO MON NITE AND EARLY TUE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
THRU NERN CO MONDAY AFTN. TIMING FLUCTUATIONS WILL ULTIMATELY TELL
HOW MUCH CONVECTION WE MAY HAVE. SLOWER ARRIVAL WILL CERTAINLY HELP
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IF OCCURS CLOSER TO MAX HEATING(WHICH ETA
INDIATES. MAY BE SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH HIGH CAPES AND GOOD
SHEAR...ESP ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MON NITE
WITH DEEPENING UPSLOPE FLOW AND EVEN SOME STRATUS/FOG EXPECTED
ACROSS ERN PLAINS BY TUE AM. EXPECT TUESDAY TO MAINLY BE COOLER AND
STABLE BUT STILL EXPECT SOME ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OFF
FOOTHILLS AS THETA-E RIDGE PUSHES FURTHER WEST INTO THE HILLS. FEEL
ERN PLAINS WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP.

WEAK RIDGING MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND WED WITH
SOME INITIAL DRYING AND WARMER TEMPS. FAIRLY VIGOROUS TROF
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY LATE IN THE WEEK BUT
MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THAT BEAST. WILL
MAINTAIN ISOLD POPS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR NOW.
&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

COOPER/ENTREKIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1023 AM MDT SAT JUL 03 2004

COZ030>051-041200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1023 AM MDT SAT JUL 03 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY FROM FORT MORGAN AND LIMON
EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE LESS MOISTURE TODAY ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST THEY WILL ENCOUNTER BETTER
MOISTURE. THERE IS ALSO MORE WIND SHEAR TODAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
BETTER ORGANIZED STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS TODAY WILL BE
LARGE HAIL...BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED COVERAGE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...A DRIER AIRMASS
WILL MOVE IN THE FORECAST AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ENTREKIN/COOPER