Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
230 PM MDT THU JUN 17 2004

.SHORT TERM...TODAY LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH WE
HAVE MORE FORCING TO WORK WITH.  THIS SHOULD HELP COMPENSATE COOL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND PROVIDE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  HAVE BOOSTED POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR ALMOST THE WHOLE CWA.  MAINTAINED MAIN THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THERE WAS A BIT OF SUNSHINE TODAY.  UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SO ANOTHER OVERNIGHT PERIOD OF FOG
AND DRIZZLE WHICH WILL PROBABLY LAST THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY
MORNING.  MODELS SHOW ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL HIGH
PRESSURE SO LITTLE HOPE OF BREAKING OUT OF THE STRATUS TOMORROW.
WILL GO COOLER THAN GUIDANCE.  WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW...EXPECT A NEAR REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF TODAY
WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP COVERAGE.  INCREASED CHANCES FROM
GOING FORECAST BUT IF THERE IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OF THE DAY THEN
MID SHIFT MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP TO LIKELY POPS AGAIN.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COOL WX
SEEMS TO BE IN THE OFFING AS SVRL SURGES WL MOVE THRU THE AREA ON
ALMOST A DAILY BASIS.  LOW LVL MSTR WL HANG ARND ACRS THE PLAINS
THRU THE AFTERNOON SAT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRIDAY/S STG COLD FRONT.
THERE IS SOME DRYING IN THE H7-H5 LYR IN THE AFTN...BUT SFC DWPTS
SHOULD NOT FALL TOO MUCH SINCE SELY FLOW WL DVLP IN THE AFTN.  WL KP
SCT POPS IN THE PLAINS AND FTHILLS.  FCST CAPES ARE ABV 1000 EAST OF
DENVER WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES THRU THIS SAME H7-H5 LYR.  TEMPS WL BE
QUITE A BIT HIR THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS IN THE ABSENCE OF MRNG
STRATUS...BUT STILL A LTL BLO NRML FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  HEADING
INTO SAT NGT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER SURGE WL MOV INTO THE PLAINS LT
SAT NGT.  THIS ONE IS MUCH WKR THAN THE PAST SVRL...BUT LOW LVL FLOW
WL SHIFT TO THE NE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.  THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FM
RISING MUCH ABV THE UPR 70S-LWR 80S.

ANOTHER SURGE WL PRBLY MOV INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY.  MEAN FLOW ALF WL
RMN WLY THRU THE DAY...ALBEIT WEAK.  CANNOT SEE MUCH REASON TO
DEVIATE FROM THE CURRENT SCT POPS MONDAY AND TUES WITH TEMPS IN THE
70S.  RDG MAY TRY TO BLD INTO THE AREA HEADING INTO WED WHICH MAY
RESULT IN WRMR TEMPS WED AND THURS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

BARJENBRUCH/046

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1111 AM MDT THU JUN 17 2004

COZ030>051-181200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1111 AM MDT THU JUN 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE
COOL...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH SUNSHINE OVER THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA TO SPARK THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS HIGHEST FROM PARK AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES
EASTWARD THROUGH DOUGLAS...ELBERT...LINCOLN...AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES.  FARTHER NORTH...ONLY AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS
POSSIBLE.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM A SEVERE STORM TODAY WOULD BE LARGE
HAIL. A SHORT LIVED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE ALONG A CONVERGENCE
ZONE EXTENDING FROM DOUGLAS COUNTY THROUGH ELBERT AND EASTERN
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES.  OTHER STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND ONLY SMALL HAIL.  ENOUGH RAIN MAY FALL
IN THE BURN AREAS OF THE FOOTHILLS TO PRODUCE FLOODING PROBLEMS.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND
UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL PROVIDE THE BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS WILL BE TOO COOL AND CLOUDY TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION...SOME STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND ON THE PLAINS FROM I-70 SOUTHWARD.  SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS SUCH AS ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTY.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE UNSTABLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 1 PM.

BARJENBRUCH/046

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
236 PM MDT THU JUN 17 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     HAIL             1 N GREENLAND           39.13N 104.83W
06/17/2004  0.75 INCH        DOUGLAS            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RAY