Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
210 PM MDT WED JUN 16 2004

CORRECTED WORDING

.SHORT TERM...LOTS OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS NOW SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS.
VIRTUALLY NO SURFACE BASED CAPE ACROSS THE CWA EXCEPT IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS FROM PARK COUNTY TOWARD SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY.
HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION SHOULD LAST AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE THE STABLE LAYER AND
UPPER LEVEL FORCING UNDER RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET.
WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING. SOME THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS IN AREAS FROM PARK COUNTY EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE THERE IS A GREATER THREAT OF STORMS ADVECTING
IN FROM HIGHER CAPE AREAS TO THE SOUTH.  WHILE STRATUS MAY ATTEMPT
TO BREAK UP FROM MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS/STORMS...EXPECT IT
TO FILL BACK IN QUITE EFFICIENTLY AS LOWS LEVEL EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW
REMAINS IN PLACE AND DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPS.  WILL CARRY SOME FOG
AND DRIZZLE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.  BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THREAT OF SEVERE DEPENDS ON WHETHER LOW LEVEL STRATUS BREAKS UP.  AT
THIS TIME...FLOW REGIME SUGGESTS HIGHEST THREAT AREA WILL BE FROM
DENVER SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO OSCILLATE FROM RUN TO RUN
WITH THE TIMING THE PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES AND SFC FRONTAL SYSTEMS
CONTINUING TO BE A CHALLENGE. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE T-STORMS FRIDAY
NOT LOOKING AS GOOD NOW WITH ATMOSPHERE EAST OF THE MTNS LOOKING
DRIER AND LESS UNSTABLE. WILL ADJUST ZONES ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...
WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GFE FIELDS SINCE CONFIDENCE
STEADILY DECREASES IN THE MODELS OUT BEYOND FRIDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

BARJENBRUCH/BAKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1047 AM MDT WED JUN 16 2004

COZ030>051-171200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1047 AM MDT WED JUN 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANT
BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS INCLUDES LOCATIONS FROM PARK AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA INTO SOUTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTY.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM A SEVERE STORM TODAY WOULD BE LARGE
HAIL.  MOST OTHER STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
AND ONLY SMALL HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND UPSLOPE FLOW
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL PROVIDE THE BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ON THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THUNDERSTORMS ON
THE PLAINS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS LATE IN THE DAY. FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON MONDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA BY 1 PM.

BARJENBRUCH/BAKER