Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
300 PM MDT TUE JUN 8 2004

.SHORT TERM...TNGT-WED...POST-FRONTAL LO LEVEL UPSLP FLO HAS
INCREASED LO LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLED TEMPS OVR HI PLAINS
THIS AFTN.  COOL AIR MASS OVR PLAINS HAS CAPPED ALL CONVECTION
BUT MDLS SHOW SUM COOLING ALF BY 00Z THAT WILL BREAK THE CAP.
CAPES ARE QUITE HIGH WHEN THIS OCCURS WITH FCST CAPE AT DEN
OVR 2500J/KG.  THUS THERE IS A THREAT OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVE.
RETURN FLO WILL OCCUR OVR PLAINS ON WED BUT FCST CAPES ARE LESS
THAN 700J/KG.  WILL KEEP POPS LOW ATTM.  TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT
THE SAME AS TODAY.  WILL MAKE ONLY SML ADJUSTMENTS TO MOS TEMP
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SWLY
FLOW ALF OVER COLORADO WILL INCREASE AS A PACIFIC TROF OVER NRN NV
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO WYOMING BY THURSDAY AFTN.
MAIN DYNAMICS WITH THIS TROF ARE PROGGED TO RMN TO THE W AND N OF
THE CWFA FOR THE MOST PART.  IN THE LOWER LEVELS A STRONG SELY FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH IT SO THERE COULD BE SOME FAIRLY STG CELLS OVR
THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS AT THAT TIME AS THE WIND SHEAR PROFILE GETS
INCREASES.  ON THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER THE FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALF
WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH WILL SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
E TOWARDS KANSAS.  QUITE A RANGE OF CAPES BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH VALUES ONLY AROUND 100 J/KG AT DENVER AND AROUND 2800 J/KG FROM
THE SIDNEY NEBRASKA ETA BUFFER SOUNDING.  WILL KEEP ANY POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR.  ON FRIDAY
...A DRIER AND MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER COLORADO WITH
THE FLOW INCRG AND BECOMING MORE SWLY AHD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM.  THE ECMWF APPEARS TO SHOW ONE CONSOLIDATED TROF
MOVING OVR COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS (AVN) SLIPS A
WEAKER SYSTEM ACROSS COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER ONE
ACROSS THE STATE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  ALL MODELS BRING ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWFA ON SUNDAY.  FOR NOW
WILL THROW SOME ISOLD POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AFTN/EVNG
...AND BROAD BRUSH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

GARD/COOPER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1131 AM MDT TUE JUN 08 2004

COZ030>051-091200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1131 AM MDT TUE JUN 08 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS
EVENING.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THE PLAINS TODAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA ON UPSLOPE
WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL HINDER
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL EVENING.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING BUT
LITTLE OR NO RAIN.  STRONGER AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS BY THIS EVENING WHERE THERE
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  IT
WILL BE DRIER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.  SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
UPSLOPE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT COULD HELP IMPROVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED AFTER 400 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON.

GARD/COOPER