Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
245 PM MDT WED JUN 02 2004

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS DEVELOPING UNDER AN AREA OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS FROM CENTRAL TO SERN CO THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS
SHOULD REMAIN THE MOST ACTIVE AREA IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS
MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  STILL SOME CHANCE OF STORMS POPPING
ELSEWHERE WITH THE PEAK HEATING.  DELAYED THE ONSET OF WARMING ALOFT
A BIT MORE AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST HAS BEEN SLOW TO
MOVE EASTWARD. WE COULD HAVE SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS PAST MIDNIGHT
AGAIN TONIGHT.  FOR THURSDAY...STILL EXPECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
INCREASE ON SE WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE WARMER AND DRIER AIR
ALOFT FINALLY ARRIVES.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SHORTWAVE NOW N
OF SALT LAKE CITY TO MOVE NORTH OF US AT MIDDAY...DRAGGING THE DRY
LINE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON.  SO FAR THIS LOOKS TO
BE ON TRACK...THOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE SLOWNESS OF THE
PRECEDING SYSTEM DELAYS IT.  OVER THE MOUNTAINS THERE WILL BE MOSTLY
DRY CONVECTION IN THE HOT AND DRY AIR...WHILE EAST OF THE DRY LINE
CAPES WILL BE IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE.  SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS ALONG THE DRYLINE...LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT
BUT SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL.  DENVER CYCLONE ALSO LIKELY EARLY IN THE
DAY BEFORE THE WINDS START TO SHIFT MORE SWLY.  SO THE TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE SEVERE THREAT IS CLOSE TO THE
FRONT RANGE OR FURTHER EAST. FOR NOW I WILL FAVOR A SLOWER SOLUTION
AND PUT THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SLIGHTLY WARMER ETA TEMPERATURES USED WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...ALL MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER COLORADO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE
PATTERN SHOULD BE ONE THAT DELIVERS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MIGHT BE
FRIDAY AND AGAIN NEXT MONDAY WHEN 700 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE
MID TEENS CELSIUS.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREES ON THE
PLAINS SHOULD KEEP MOST CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS CAPPED.
HOWEVER...THIS TIME OF YEAR IT IS DIFFICULT TO KEEP A LID ON SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS.  FOR THIS REASON WILL HANG ON TO 10 AND 20 PERCENT POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING.  SATURDAY SHOWS A BIT OF A FRONTAL SURGE MOVING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 80 ON THE
PLAINS.  THE AIRMASS MAY BE TOO STABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SHOWERS...BUT MODERATE FLOW ALOFT AND AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ALOFT
MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.

BY NEXT TUESDAY...THE GFS IS SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT THE COOLING ALOFT NEVER MAKES IT INTO
THE AREA.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL
EVOLVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING EACH DAY.  STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE THAT ADVECT INTO THE
AREA AND THE MESO-SCALE SETUP OF BOUNDARIES AND WIND FIELDS EACH
DAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

GIMMESTAD/DANKERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1108 AM MDT WED JUN 02 2004

COZ030>051-031200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1108 AM MDT WED JUN 02 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ON THE PLAINS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70 THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS.  INSTABILITY IS LIMITED TODAY SO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME OF THE STORMS ON THE
PLAINS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. THE STORMS
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION AND WIND PATTERNS NEAR THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR CAUSING ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO OCCUR.

THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

GIMMESTAD/DANKERS