Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
240 PM MDT TUE MAY 25 2004

.SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT SO FAR INTENSITY HAS BEEN QUITE WEAK
DUE TO COOLING EFFECTS OF STRATUS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  STRONG
CONVERGENCE ZONE EXISTS FROM NEAR KIOWA TO BYERS AND THE WELD/MORGAN
COUNTY LINE.  STRONGER CONVECTION JUST NOW TRYING TO POP AS AIRMASS
EAST OF CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS REACHED CONVECTIVE TEMP.  CAPES LIMITED
TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG BUT LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE.  STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM AND BRIEF
SPINUP TORNADO ALONG THIS LINE.  OTHERWISE...WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH FORCING EFFECTS FROM
JET MAX PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.  SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS TIL DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE...SOME PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY AREAS WITH MOIST GROUND SOME LOCALES AND
CLEARING SKIES LATE.

GOOD WARMUP IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE...WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...AND WARMING MID LEVELS.  THIS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.  HOWEVER...DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WILL STILL LEAD TO HIGH BASED CONVECTION.
EVEN WITH LOWERING DEWPOINTS...STILL ENOUGH CAPE OUT THERE TO
MENTION A SLIM 10 PERCENT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...WL CONT LOW GRADE POPS INTO THE EVENING WED.
BUT AFTER THAT...A SPATE OF WARM DRY WX APPEARS IN THE OFFING.  AS
DEEP TROUGH MOVES ONSHR THE PACIFIC COAST...UPSREAM RDG WL BUILD
ACRS OUR AREA.  SWLY FLOW WL BGN TO INCRS HEADING INTO FRIDAY WHICH
MAY BCM QUITE STG DURING THE AFTN FRIDAY AND ON INTO SATURDAY.
RIGHT NOW...SUBSIDENCE AND PRESSURE GRADS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE TOO
STG...BUT THIS COULD CHG WITH LATTER MDL RUNS AS THIS AT LEAST
SYNOPTICALLY APPEARS TO BE A TROUBLING PTRN WITH REGARDS TO FIRE WX
CONCERNS.  RH WL BE VRY LOW AND BY FRIDAY AND SAT...TEMPS WL BE WELL
INTO THE 80S.  WL INCRS TEMPS ACRS THE FNT RANGE AND PLAINS QUITE A
BIT.

SAT AND THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WKND...12Z MDLS ARE TRENDING
QUITE A BIT SLOWER AND LESS DEEP WITH THE PAC CST SYSTEM.  OVERALL
CONSISTENCY IS VERY POOR WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM.  EARLIER RUNS DEPICTED A FURTHER SW H5 LOW...BUT LATTER RUNS
ARE FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH.  WL BACK UP POPS UNTIL SAT NGT...BUT
UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSISENCY AMONGST THE MDLS...WL NOT CHGS DAYS
5 TO 7 TOO MUCH.
&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

BARJENBRUCH/046

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
352 PM MDT TUE MAY 25 2004

COZ030>051-261200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
352 PM MDT TUE MAY 25 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.  MOST OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.  THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER HAS DIMINISHED.

THE CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT WAS SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT HAS SHIFTED EAST.  AS OF LATE AFTERNOON...IT STRETCHED
FROM NEAR KIOWA TO BYERS...FORT MORGAN...AND STERLING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A DRY AND WARM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA
DURING THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...SPREADING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NO FURTHER SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EVENING.

BARJENBRUCH/046/KALINA