Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
340 PM MDT THU AUG 12 2004

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...A COOLER AND STABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  THE ONLY DEEP CONVECTION WE HAVE SEEN
THIS AFTERNOON IS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS MOVING THE CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM RAPIDLY
WHERE IT IS DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  EXPECT
ALL THE CLOUDINESS TO DISSIPATE AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN.  FOR
FRIDAY...THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL KEEP WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA TO
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.  EVEN IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DOES INCREASE...IT WILL BE TOO COOL FOR THE AIR MASS TO
DESTABILIZE.  THE ONLY PLACE TO SEE ANY SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...ABOVE LOW
LEVEL INVERSIONS AND WHERE SURFACE HEATING WILL BE STRONGER.  DID
NOT NEED TO MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE PRIOR GRIDDED FORECAST
PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
WHICH KEEP A FAIRLY STRONG UPSTREAM RIDGE THIS WEEKEND...THEN
GRADUALLY FLATTEN IT BY MIDWEEK. ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS FLOW IS WEAK...BUT THERE WILL BE AN
EVENTUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION. THERE COULD BE ONE OR TWO
TRANSITION DAYS WITH SOME DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
NOT LOOKING LIKE A BIG OUTBREAK. FIRE DANGERS STILL MODERATE EXCEPT
NORTH AND MIDDLE PARKS. SOME QUESTION AS TO MOISTURE RETURN ON THE
PLAINS...PUT ISOLATED STORMS BACK IN ON SAT AS MOISTURE IS NOT GOING
THAT FAR AWAY AND DIURNAL UPSLOPE MAY MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THERE AS IT WARMS UP. SOME COOLING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BUT IT MAY JUST BE FROM INCREASED MOISTURE...SHORTWAVES COMING
OVER THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE WILL STAY WELL NORTH AND SHOULD NOT
PRODUCE A GREAT DEAL OF COOLING. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES SOME BUT NO
BIG TRENDS...MAINLY REFLECTING COOLER LOWS IN THE PLATTE VALLEY AND
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THE NIGHTS ARE GETTING LONGER AND THERE WERE
SOME UPPER 20S THIS MORNING.

&&

.BOU...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

DANKERS/GIMMESTAD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1102 AM MDT THU AUG 12 2004

COZ030>051-131200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1102 AM MDT THU AUG 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

DANKERS/GIMMESTAD