Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
232 AM MDT MON JUL 19 2004

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE
PLUME SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING.  IN ADDITION...A WEAK UPPER WAVE WAS NOTED OVER NORTHEAST
UTAH.  FROM HEIGHT/VORT FIELDS...LOOKS LIKE TAIL END OF WAVE WILL
BRUSH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING.  THIS WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SHOULD ALSO HELP BREAK THE
MID LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  FOR THIS REASON
WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOOON AND EVENING.  OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE TO GOING
FORECAST.  STORMS MAY HAVE A TENDANCY TO DIE OFF QUICKER THIS
EVENING IN/NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AS THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND WEAK DISTURBANCE.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...TUES SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
H7 TEMPS WL MAX OUT ARND 16C IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH SOME HINTS OF
LEE TROF AND SUBSIDENCE ACRS THE FNT RANGE.  WITH THESE FACTORS IN
MID...PLAINS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE MID 90S.  ONE OR TWO PLACES ON
THE WEST SIDE OF TOWN WILL PBLY HIT THE CENTURY MARK.  HWVR...IT
APPEARS MAJOR CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR LATER THIS WK.  MDLS IN
PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS WITH REGARD TO THE RETROGRESSION OF H5 RDG WWD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  A MASS OF COLD AIR OVER SRN CANADA WOULD THEN
ADVECT INTO THE PLAINS.  00Z GFS RUN INDG COOL AIR WOULD ARRIVE WED
NIGHT WHILE THE ETA IS SVRL HRS FASTER WITH THE CDFNT HITTING THE
PLAINS AS SOON AS WED AFTN.  EITHER WAY...THURS APPEARS TO BE A COLD
UPSLOPE TYPE OF DAY WITH SOME DECENT QPF NR THE FTHILLS.  COOL WX
WITH A CHC OF PCPN LOOKS TO LAST INTO SAT BEFORE MODERATING SOMEWHAT
SUNDAY.  OVERALL...THIS PATTERN LOOKS VERY REMINESCENT OF THE END OF
JUNE.  FOR NOW...WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WK ON THE PLAINS AND INCRS POPS INTO THE SCT CATEGORY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

BARJENBRUCH/046

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1102 AM MDT MON JUL 19 2004

COZ030>051-201200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1102 AM MDT MON JUL 19 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS...PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  ON THE
PLAINS...ONLY ISOLATED STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.  DUE TO WEAK
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
...BUT BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.  HOWEVER...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP AS MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

D-L/COOPER