Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
325 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
BECOME STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES...ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE GOOD WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY).
PESKY BACKDOOR FRONT/DEW POINT AXIS LOCATED ALONG THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE AREA.
WILL GENERALLY ACCEPT THE ETA SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DO NOT THINK THE FRONT WILL PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GFS
DEPICTS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGH TONIGHT...WITH BEST SHOT CLOSE TO
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. RAIN AREA SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTH AND LOSING
ITS GUSTO EARLY SUNDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA
MAINLY DRY AND MEANDER BETWEEN BHM AND MGM SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
TILTING MORE NORTHWEST SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO
THE SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT FOR NOW...BUT IT
REALLY LOOKS IFFY. TOOK A MIX OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD. OVERALL...CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKING GOOD WITH NO
MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY).
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE PATTERN MIGRATES
TOWARD A 4 WAVE PATTERN...WHICH WOULD MEAN A LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW
BY WEEKS END. MAIN DISAGREEMENT OCCURS LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
WEST COAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF ENERGY. THIS
FEATURE WILL AFFECT THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER AND STRONGER
WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
SATURDAY. NOGAPS/CAN GLB/ECMWF/UKMET/GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HINTING
AT SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED SYSTEM. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE PERIOD WITH GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW. WILL GO
SLOWER THAN GFS/HPC ON COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA FRIDAY...
PUSHING IT BACK INTO SATURDAY. MEX MOS/HPC TAKE A BIG DROP TOWARD
CLIMATE HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS ALSO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. WILL MENTION SMALL RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THIS RUN.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

GADSDEN    60 78 54 79 57 / 90 10 10 10
ANNISTON   60 77 55 78 56 / 80 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 63 79 57 79 57 / 90 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 64 80 59 81 59 / 90 10 10 10
CALERA     62 79 59 79 57 / 80 10 10 10
AUBURN     58 78 59 79 57 / 60 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 63 80 60 82 60 / 60 20 10 20
TROY       62 80 60 80 58 / 50 20 10 20
&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

75/LINHARES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
131 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004

ALZ011>015-017>050-232130-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
131 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...(THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)

SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.