Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
218 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2004

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH FRIDAY AS
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A FRONT JUST
NORTH OF ALABAMA.  DRIER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) DETERMINING WHEN AND WHERE
RAIN WILL OCCUR IS THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AT 2 PM CDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...MOST NUMEROUS OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA INTO NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI JUST SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT.  WARM CONDITIONS PREVAILED
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...EXCEPT 70S
IN AND NEAR LOCATIONS THAT WERE RECEIVING RAINFALL.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES AS ONGOING FORECAST
HANDLES THE WEATHER WELL.  HAVE NO PREFERENCE TOWARD ONE MODEL OR
ANOTHER...SO WILL USE A BLEND.

TONIGHT...PLAN ON KEEPING CHANCE OF RAIN EVERYWHERE.  THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 WHERE LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED CLOSER TO THE FRONT.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...A FEW THIS EVENING MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THE
MAIN HAZARD THANKS TO DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY BE IN LOWER 70S.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.  THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AS DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO NORTH ALABAMA.  THEREFORE...WILL TIER RAIN CHANCES
HIGHER SOUTH AND LOWER NORTH.  NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS AS
WINDS WILL BE WEAK.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
MOST PLACES...AROUND 90 AS OPPOSED TO THE LOWER AND MID 90S AS
OF LATE.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND AS WARMER AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR INVADES THE AREA THANKS
TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.  WILL KEEP LOW RAIN
CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...
THOUGH MOST PLACES SHOULD BE DRY.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S.
&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST UNDER THE CONTROL OF
HIGH PRESSURE.  CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS THIS TREND AND WILL NOT
MAKE MANY CHANGES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...

GADSDEN    69 89 69 90 68 / 40 30 20 30
ANNISTON   71 89 70 90 71 / 40 40 20 30
BIRMINGHAM 71 89 73 90 73 / 40 40 20 30
TUSCALOOSA 72 91 72 92 71 / 40 40 20 30
CALERA     72 89 72 91 71 / 40 40 20 30
AUBURN     72 88 72 91 72 / 30 50 30 30
MONTGOMERY 74 91 72 93 73 / 30 50 30 30
TROY       72 90 71 92 70 / 30 50 30 30
&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

MBS/91

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
109 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2004

ALZ011>015-017>050-081800-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
109 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE (THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A
FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BRIEFLY GROW STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE STORMS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY
9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

NO ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD AREAS OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTERS
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
325 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2004

ALZ011-012-072100-
LAMAR-MARION-
325 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR LAMAR AND MARION COUNTIES
UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING LIKELY FROM APPROACHING
THUNDERSTORMS...

...WINDS 35 TO 45 MILES AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE FROM APPROACHING
THUNDERSTORMS...

AT 323 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BEXAR TO 37 MILES
WEST OF MILLPORT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND NEAR
BEXAR...DETROIT...WESTON...VERNON...MOLLOY...MILLPORT...MANSFIELD AND
HACKLEBURG THROUGH 400 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS IN THE VICINITY OF THESE
STORMS...TAKE SHELTER NOW. IF LIGHTNING IS OBSERVED... WAIT AT LEAST
30 MINUTES AFTER THE LAST LIGHTNING FLASH OR THUNDER BEFORE RESUMING
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THESE
WINDS CAN BREAK OFF SMALL TREE LIMBS...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
OBJECTS SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS.