Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Bismarck, ND

July 2, 2004Kidder County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 2, 2004, 10:22 PM CDT for Kidder County, North Dakota. It was in force for 53 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 2, 2004, 10:22 PM CDT (03:22 UTC)
Expired: Jul 2, 2004, 11:15 PM CDT
In force: 53 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Kidder County, ND

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 72 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 3.4 hours before the alert went out and 68 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1321 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -13 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1826 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 23 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 117 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 2.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KBIS 030322
SVRBIS
NDC043-030415-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1022 PM CDT FRI JUL 2 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN KIDDER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA

* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT

* AT 1022 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER STEELE...OR ABOUT 39 MILES EAST OF
  BISMARCK...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DAWSON AROUND 1105 PM CDT
  TAPPEN AROUND 1115 PM CDT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOS WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING. PREPARE TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED.

LAT...LON 4691 10003 4672 10004 4665 9948 4697 9948

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 2, 3:50 PM CDT, 6 hours 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 2, 3:50 PM CDT, 6 hours 32 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
350 PM CDT FRI JUL 2 2004

.SHORT TERM...
FORECAST PROBLEMS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CONVECTION CHANCES AND
TIMING. ACTUALLY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM WHAT WE ALREADY HAVE
GOING. IN THE NEAR TERM...UNSTABLE ATMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED
INDEX -2 TO -6 ACROSS MUCH OF CWA. MODIFIED MESOETA SOUNDINGS
INDICATED SOME PRETTY DECENT HELICITY OVER FAR EASTERN CWA. GROUND
TRUTH REPORT OF FUNNEL CLOUD VERIFIES POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS.
CURRENT TORNADO WATCH ALONG AND EAST OF TROUGH LINE THAT CUTS
THROUGH DICKEY AND LAMOURE COUNTIES. THIS WILL RUN UNTIL 9 PM CDT.
ALTHOUGH STILL VERY UNSTABLE...SHEAR IS MUCH LESS OVER REST OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA...SO MAIN THREAT WILL BE A POSSIBLE
DOWNDRAFT GUST IN AN ISOLATED SEVERE CELL. CHANCES ARE SLIM ENOUGH
THAT WILL NOT MENTION SEVERE EXCEPT FOR WATCH AREA. HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO LIKELY AS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

SECONDARY FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH CWA ON SATURDAY. STILL ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AROUND WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO MENTION ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS A SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH
INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ETA/GFS
BUT BOTH BRING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AFTER SOME WRAP AROUND LINGERING
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT IN EASTERN COUNTIES...WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OUT OF CANADA. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER ON TUESDAY...AND I TRENDED
DOWN HIGHS ONCE AGAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS H500 RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND THEN SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL SET UP AN ACTIVE
SCENARIO FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. I SET UP WARMING TREND
WEDNESDAY...HIKING UP TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

TWH/SHULZ

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 2, 5:04 AM CDT, 17 hours 18 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
504 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 2004

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-031003-
ADAMS ND-BILLINGS ND-BOTTINEAU ND-BOWMAN ND-BURKE ND-BURLEIGH ND-
DICKEY ND-DIVIDE ND-DUNN ND-EMMONS ND-FOSTER ND-GOLDEN VALLEY ND-
GRANT ND-HETTINGER ND-KIDDER ND-LA MOURE ND-LOGAN ND-MCHENRY ND-
MCINTOSH ND-MCKENZIE ND-MCLEAN ND-MERCER ND-MORTON ND-MOUNTRAIL ND-
OLIVER ND-PIERCE ND-RENVILLE ND-ROLETTE ND-SHERIDAN ND-SIOUX ND-
SLOPE ND-STARK ND-STUTSMAN ND-WARD ND-WELLS ND-WILLIAMS ND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BISMARCK...BOTTINEAU...BOWMAN...CROSBY...
DICKINSON...JAMESTOWN...MINOT AND WILLISTON
504 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 2, 5:30 PM CDT, 4 hours 52 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
530 PM CDT FRI JUL 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     HAIL             MARION                  46.61N 98.33W
07/02/2004  1.00 INCH        LAMOURE            ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SMALLER HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

&&

JENSEN

Local storm report, Jul 2, 5:48 PM CDT, 4 hours 34 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
548 PM CDT FRI JUL 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             LA MOURE                46.36N 98.30W
07/02/2004  0.75 INCH        LAMOURE            ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            PLENTY OF SMALLER HAIL.

&&

JENSEN

Special weather statement, Jul 2, 9:00 PM CDT, 1 hour 22 minutes before

NDZ001>054-030900-

STATE FORECAST FOR NORTH DAKOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
900 PM CDT FRI JUL 2 2004

.TONIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EAST. LOWS 55 TO 65.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 75 TO 85.
.INDEPENDENCE DAY...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND COOLER. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEST AND CENTRAL. LOWS IN THE 50S. HIGHS 65 TO 75.
.MONDAY...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 50 TO 55. HIGHS 70 TO 75.
.TUESDAY....PARTLY SUNNY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS 70 TO 75.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN THIRD. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS 75 TO 80.

LM

Special weather statement, Jul 2, 9:08 PM CDT, 1 hour 14 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
908 PM CDT FRI JUL 2 2004

NDZ048-051-030208-
DICKEY ND-LA MOURE ND-
908 PM CDT FRI JUL 2 2004

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 534 WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR DICKEY AND LAMOURE
COUNTES HAS EXPIRED. THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION HAVE WEAKENED AND
ARE NO LONGER A THREAT.

LM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 2, 10:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Bottineau	67 min
Jul 3, 3:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Foster, Wells	65 min
Jul 3, 3:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Stutsman	56 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2004 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.