Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
325 PM EDT SAT MAY 15 2004

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF COLD FRONT SINKING
SLOWLY SE THROUGH CWA. MODERATE INSTABILITY FURTHER SOUTH WHERE
TSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO NE PA. CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN THIS EVENING
AS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SINKS SE BEHIND FRONT. CURRENT GRIDS LOOK GOOD
AS GFS AND ETA IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF PRECIP BEHIND FRONT
TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. FRONT GETS PUSHED SOUTH AS SHORT WAVE GOES
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN STALLS AS IT HITS THE COAST AND FORCING WANES.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE KEPT THE FOG IN
TONIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH CLEARING SKIES ESPECIALLY LATE AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVES SE INTO NY. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN INTO
MONDAY WITH DRY AIR. MONDAY ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH SO TEMPS BACK TO
AROUND 80 BUT WITH LESS HUMIDITY.
&&

.EXTENDED (MON NGT-SAT)...
CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS MON NIGHT INTO TUES NIGHT AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION ON TUES. FNT SAGS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON WED WITH
A WAVE MOVING ALONG FNT THROUGH MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DRIER AIR
SPREADS IN ON WED. THIS GENERAL SEQUENCE REPEATS ITSELF THU-FRI AS
ANOTHER COLD FNT APPROACHES...THEN CROSSES THE REGION AND SLOWLY
SAGS SOUTH AS DRIER AIR FILLS IN OVER OUR REGION.

WILL INITIATE SAT WITH CHC POPS AS IT LOOKS LIKE MRF IS SETTING UP A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY W-E ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS BETWEEN ITH AND BGM AT 17Z.  ISOLATED
CONVECTION AHEAD AND THE STEADIER RAIN BEHIND THE FNT. CIGS
008-015 ARE WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXTEND BACK INTO OHIO.
AS STEADY RAIN SLOWLY ENDS WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 00 AND 04Z...THERE
WILL BE VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT KEEPING STRATUS/FOG
IN OVER THE REGION. DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON SUN...SO WILL TREND ALL
TAFS TOWARDS VFR 12-15Z SUN.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
PA...NONE.

DAYS 1-2...CHAMPNEY
AVIATION AND EXTENDED...CHIARAMONTE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
350 AM EDT SAT MAY 15 2004

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055-056-PAZ038-039-151000-
BRADFORD PA-BROOME NY-CHEMUNG NY-CHENANGO NY-CORTLAND NY-MADISON NY-
NORTHERN ONEIDA NY-ONONDAGA NY-OTSEGO NY-SCHUYLER NY-SENECA NY-
SOUTHERN CAYUGA NY-SOUTHERN ONEIDA NY-STEUBEN NY-SUSQUEHANNA PA-
TIOGA NY-TOMPKINS NY-YATES NY-
350 AM EDT SAT MAY 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

NYZ057-062-PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072-151000-
DELAWARE NY-LACKAWANNA PA-LUZERNE PA-NORTHERN WAYNE PA-PIKE PA-
SOUTHERN WAYNE PA-SULLIVAN NY-WYOMING PA-
350 AM EDT SAT MAY 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

VAN AUSDALL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
156 PM EDT SAT MAY 15 2004

NYZ017-023>025-044-055-056-151900-
BROOME NY-CAYUGA NY-CHEMUNG NY-CORTLAND NY-SCHUYLER NY-TIOGA
NY-TOMPKINS NY-
156 PM EDT SAT MAY 15 2004

...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WIND AND HEAVY RAIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA...

AT 152 PM EDT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WIND AND
HEAVY RAIN WAS 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF ITHACA...TO 10 MILES NORTH OF
WAVERLY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
TRUMANSBURG...ITHACA...AND CANDOR AT 210 PM.
GROTON...DRYDEN...AND BERKSHIRE AT 225 PM.
CORTLAND...MARATHON...AND LISLE AT 245 PM.

EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM. LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
UP TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE. MOTORISTS SHOULD WATCH OUT FOR PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA
OUTLETS FOR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

GILT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
252 PM EDT SAT MAY 15 2004

NYZ018-036-037-044>046-056-151930-
BROOME NY-CHENANGO NY-CORTLAND NY-MADISON NY-ONEIDA NY-ONONDAGA
NY-OTSEGO NY-
252 PM EDT SAT MAY 15 2004

AT 247 PM EDT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WIND...WAS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CORTLAND TO MARATHON.....MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
DERUYTER...MCDONOUGH...AND GREEN AT 310 PM.
HAMILTON...NORWICH..AND COVENTRY AT 325 PM.
EDMESTON AND GILBERTSVILLE AT 335 PM.

WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH, AND SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
STORMS.

EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE PATH OF THE STORM. LOCALIZED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE. MOTORISTS SHOULD WATCH OUT
FOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA
OUTLETS FOR  UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

GILT

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