Flash Flood Warning 72, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
320 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT TO SUNDAY)...
IVAN SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO CAROLINAS AS IT SENDS RAIN NORTH INTO
CWA. AMOUNTS MOSTLY UNDER AN INCH OR RAIN EXCEPT FAR WEST WITH UP TO
2. TIME PERIOD 12 HOURS WITH ANOTHER 12 TO GO AT LEAST. RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM RIGHT REAR QUAD OF UL JET.
TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL BE
STEADY.

SATURDAY THE CENTER OF IVAN WILL HEAD TO THE COAST OF VA WITH DRIER
COOL CONTINENTAL AIR WITH CANADAIAN HIGH. RAIN WILL END STARTING
LATE TONIGHT FROM NW TO SE PULLING OUT BY NOON.

SAT NGT THE DRY AIR WILL BE HERE BUT THE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE WIND
UP. WILL NOT PUT IN FOG DESPITE THE WET GROUND DUE TO THE WIND FLOW
AND DEWPOINTS STILL FALLING INTO 30S.

SUNDAY COOL AND SUNNY WITH STILL SOME WIND UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
&&

.LONG TERM(SUNDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY)...
A PROLONGED PD OF FAIR WX APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE BGM FCST
AREA AS HIGH PRES REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NE U.S.. ITLL BE CHILLY
AT NIGHT, WITH SOME U30S PSBL IN THE COOLER VLYS SUN AND MON NGT.
OTRW SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO MVFR CIGS FOR SYR/UCA WITH -RA, WHICH SHUD BE TAPERING OFF
LATE THIS EVNG. FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE S, IFR CIGS WITH SOME
LIFR CONDITIONS AT ITH AND BGM. RAIN TAPERING OFF LATE TNGT, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS WORKING INTO THE RGN TMRW MRNG.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN SO FAR HAS BEEN ACROSS THE MOST WESTERN COUNTIES IN
NY. NO PROBLEMS YET. AS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST WITH AND NORTH OF IVAN
THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN IN WRN NY AND WRN PA WILL SHIFT ACROSS WATCH
AREA. WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES SOME RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE
IN ADDITION TO FLASH FLOODING. RAIN WILL END SATURDAY MORNING AS IT
TAPERS OFF AND PULLS EAST.  TAC
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH INTO SATURDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER FROM STEUBEN
COUNTY EASTWARD TO DELAWARE AND OTSEGO COUNTIES.
NYZ022>025-044>046-055>057-062
PA...FLOOD WATCH INTO SATURDAY FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST PA.
PAZ038>040-043>044-047>048-072
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1125 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-181100-
BRADFORD PA-BROOME NY-CHEMUNG NY-CHENANGO NY-CORTLAND NY-DELAWARE NY-
LACKAWANNA PA-LUZERNE PA-MADISON NY-NORTHERN ONEIDA NY-
NORTHERN WAYNE PA-ONONDAGA NY-OTSEGO NY-PIKE PA-SCHUYLER NY-
SENECA NY-SOUTHERN CAYUGA NY-SOUTHERN ONEIDA NY-SOUTHERN WAYNE PA-
STEUBEN NY-SULLIVAN NY-SUSQUEHANNA PA-TIOGA NY-TOMPKINS NY-
WYOMING PA-YATES NY-
1125 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS
MOISTURE FROM IVAN TEAMS UP WITH A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE.  A FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR THESE
AREAS.  FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT AND ASSOCIATED
FLOOD POTENTIAL...PLEASE REFER TO THE STATEMENT ALBFFABGM.  FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY OF NEW YORK
RAIN WILL FALL BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH NOT TO CAUSE ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
STEADIER RAINS WILL EXIT THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...ANY
RUNOFF PROBLEMS COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  RIVERS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CRESTING.

NO FURTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
FORMAL SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN THEIR REPORTS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON.

CHAMPNEY