Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
317 PM EDT FRI JUL 30 2004

.SYNOPSIS
BIG PICTURE...PERSISTENT 500 MB +PNA TO TREND LESS AMPLIFIED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALLOWING WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE TO BUILD BACK NORTH
AND EAST A BIT LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  IN THE SHORTER
TERM...HOWEVER...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALIGN WITH SFC
BOUNDARY...PRODUCING A SLOW MOVING FRONT. IN THE LONG TERM...MODELS
INDICTAING ERN PACIFIC TROUGH TO REDEVELOP...WHICH WOULD DEEPEN AND
SHIFT ERN NOAM TROUGH BACK OVER CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...SFC FRONT...CURRENTLY SOMEWHERE JUST N OF LK ONTARIO AND
ERIE...WILL BE LINED UP WITH SW FLOW ALOFT...AS WEAKLY AMPLIFIED 500
MB TROUGH SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC
FRONT CREEPING ALONG OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  FOR TONIGHT (AND INTO
SATURDAY)...RIDGING TO OUR EAST SHOULD KEEP ANY WAVES IN THE FLOW TO
OUR WEST.  THUS...WILL HIT THE PRECIP HARDEST ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES AND CENTRAL SRN TIER.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...WITH TDS RUNNING AROUND 70...SHOULD BE FAIRLY
OPPRESSIVE...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN.  AS FOR PRECIP...DO
NOT SEE ANY REAL SHIFTING UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY...AS ENERGEY BEGINS
TO DROP INTO 500 MB TROUGH AND IT SHIFTS EAST....MOVING SFC FRONT
WITH IT.  MODELS SUGGESTING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DEVELOPS AS FRONT
LIMPS ACROSS CWA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT.  PRESENCE OF
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH JET RIGHT ENTRY REGION SHOULD
ADD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN.  ALSO...FF INDICATORS SENDING
UP A FLAG FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH...HIGH
PWS...PRESENCE OF LL JET...AND VERY WET GROUND FROM PREVIOUS RAINS
ALL LEAD THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS RIVER ISSUES.
SEE ALBESFBGM.

SUNDAY...WHILE MODELS SUGGESTING FRONT MAKES IT TO SRN BORDER OF
CWA...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS 500 MB WAVE WEAKENS...AND STILL SOME
RIDGING HOLDING ON JUST OFF THE COAST.  SEEM MORE OFTEN THAN NOT
MODELS TEND TO PROGRESS THESE WEAK FRONTS TOO FAR SOUTH. FOR
NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND KEEP THE CHC POPS IN
THE MORNING THEN DROP THEM FROM NRN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-FRIDAY)...
SUNDAY NIGHT THE FRONT IS SE OF OUR AREA BUT WAVES ON THE SLOW
MOVING FNT KEEPS CHC POPS IN OUR SE ZONES.  CLEARING OF THESE
SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER ON MONDAY. A SECOND WK SHORT WAVE TRIES TO
CROSS THE REGION ON TUES BUT IT DAMPENS OUT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC
POPS ON TUES. GFSLR SHOWS A DRY REST OF FORECAST WED - FRI.
&&

.AVIATION...
HAZY VSBYS ARE MIXING OUT. PERSISTENCE MOVES SHOWERS OUT OF NW PA
TOWARD ELM-ITH THIS AFTN (19-21Z). WILL TEMPO TSRA 2124 ALL TAFS
THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP VFR CLDS ACROSS AREA EARLY TNT AND MVFR
HZ/BR VSBYS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIKE THIS MORNING MVFR STRATUS DECK
MAY REFORM TOWARD DAYBREAK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW.
BUFKIT ETA PROFILES SUGGEST SHOWERS ON SAT WILL START JUST BEYOND
THIS TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STILL PRETTY WET AROUND THE REGION.  FFH/FFG SHOWS THE SUSQUEHANNA
BASIN IN NEW YORK REGION TO BE THE WETTEST NEAR AN INCH FOR 1 HOUR
TO 1.5 FOR 3-12 HOURS FOR OUR SMALL STREAMS AND HEADWATER POINTS.
NOT EVERY POINT IN THE UPPER BASIN IS STILL AT RECORD HIGH DAILY
FLOWS. MOST HEADWATER POINTS ARE NOW JUST ABOVE NORMAL.  BUT FLOWS
REMAIN VERY HIGH FOR LATE JULY...SO WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL STATEMENT WITH EMPHASIS FOR HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY EVENING
AND POSSIBLE MINOR RIVER FLOODING ON SUNDAY AT SHERBURNE...CONKLIN
AND WAVERLY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
PA...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...CHIARAMONTE
HYDRO/AVIATION...CHIARMONTE

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-301030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
430 AM EDT FRI JUL 30 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE HEAVY RAIN.
SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
WITH RIVERS RUNNING HIGH AND THE GROUND NEARLY SATURATED FLOODING AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A BIGGER PROBLEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE A WARM SATURATED AIRMASS. FORECASTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA AND MOST OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK ARE A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS
AMOUNT OF RAIN COULD CAUSE RIVER AND FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THE
TWIN TIERS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHERN CATSKILLS. AREAS FROM
WILKES-BARRE PENNSYLVANIA TO MONTICELLO NEW YORK ARE THE LEAST LIKELY
TO SEE FLOODING. WITH A HUMID TROPICAL AIRMASS...THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DROP HEAVY RAIN OF OVER 1 INCH IN AN HOUR.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
FORMAL SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN THEIR REPORTS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON.