Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
245 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AS
EXPECTED WITH THE 500 MB LOW PIVOTING ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK THIS
AFTN. BREAKS IN CLD COVER ALLOWING FOR SOME HEATING AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS SHOW THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AS THE 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN
FOR THE EVENING AND DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE
IN PLACE, DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S OVERNIGHT AND SOME CLEARING
OVERNIGHT, EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SE THROUGH THE NW FLOW ACCOMPANIED BY
WEAK SFC FRONT. WILL KEEP CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH TIMING CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING HOURS ONCE AGAIN WITH A DRY
OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...COULD IT BE? LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY IN STORE ACROSS THE
REGION. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON NUDGING UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE UPPER TROUGH AND WAVE EXIT INTO NEW ENGLAND. 850
TEMPS WARM TO +16C ...SO TEMPS IN LINE WITH MID 80S WITH LOW 80S
COOLER SPOTS IN THE WESTERN CATSKILLS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (WED NITE - MON)...
MED RANGE MDLS AGREE THAT UPR RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL WEAKEN JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW TROF IN EAST TO WEAKEN AS WELL...TURNING FLOW A BIT
MORE TO THE WEST ALOFT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO SHOVE A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THRU THE AREA THURS NITE AND FRIDAY...WITH A COOLER AND DRIER
POLAR AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD BRING SUNSHINE...BUT
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HEIGHTS RISE AGAIN IN THE WEST LATE IN
THE PERIOD WITH TROF AGAIN DIGGING INTO GTLKS REGION...SENDING US
BACK INTO A RETURN OF MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
AXIS OF CONVECTION OVER WNY SUPPORTED BY CONVG LLVL FLOW AND UPR
VORT MAX WILL GRDLY DVLP EWD DURG 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME AS UPR LOW
OPENS SLIGHTLY AND LIFTS NEWD INTO INCRGLY UNSTABLE AIR. FOUR HR
TEMPO LIMIT FORCED AN END TO TSRA PSBLTY IN TAF AROUND 00Z. XPCT
MOST ACTIVITY SHUD BE WANING AT THAT TIME ANYWAY...SO DID NOT
INCLUDE ANOTHER GROUP. SYR-UCA COULD LINGER CONV POTENTIAL UNTIL
02-03Z AND WL BE MONITORED. CU/STRATOCU FAVORED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT
WITH SLGHT DRYING ALOFT BEHIND TROF...BUT A HI BKN CI/AC DECK WL
ADVANCE EWD AHEAD OF NEXT TROF. AMPLE LLVL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE...AND UPS TECHNIQUE FAVORS FOG OVER STRATUS. WL THEREFORE HIT
MOST LOCATIONS WITH IFR-LIFR FOG 08Z-12Z WITH DISSIPATION INTO A
SCT-BKN MULTI LYR CU DECK ABOUT 13-14Z.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
PA...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...JML
AVIATION...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
300 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2004

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-191000-
BRADFORD PA-BROOME NY-CHEMUNG NY-CHENANGO NY-CORTLAND NY-DELAWARE NY-
LACKAWANNA PA-LUZERNE PA-MADISON NY-NORTHERN ONEIDA NY-
NORTHERN WAYNE PA-ONONDAGA NY-OTSEGO NY-PIKE PA-SCHUYLER NY-
SENECA NY-SOUTHERN CAYUGA NY-SOUTHERN ONEIDA NY-SOUTHERN WAYNE PA-
STEUBEN NY-SULLIVAN NY-SUSQUEHANNA PA-TIOGA NY-TOMPKINS NY-
WYOMING PA-YATES NY-
300 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY.  ONCE
AGAIN...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAPABALE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE PAST FEW FEW DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT RAIN
SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO CALL IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

MJC