Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Binghamton, NY

000 
WGUS71 KBGM 141418
FFSBGM
NYC101-141515-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1015 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1115 AM EDT FOR STEUBEN
COUNTY...

AT 1010 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...AND MOVING 
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST STEUBEN COUNTY. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS 
THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN EARLIER THIS MORNING...INCLUDING THE 
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...GREENWOOD...JASPER...MCGRAWS...REXVILLE... 
TROUPSBURG...WOODHULL AND YOUNG HICKORY.

RAPID FLOODING LIKELY WILL OCCUR OVER MANY OF THE SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS CLOSE TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOCATIONS.

$$

VAN AUSDALL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
250 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

.SYNOPSIS...
BIG PICTURE...NRN HEMISPHERE 500 MB PATTERN HAS A BIT OF A COLD
SEASON LOOK TO IT...AS WELL AS A +PNA SKEW...WITH COLD CORE LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY AND A GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER ERN NOAM.  MED-LONG RANGE
MODELS INICATING THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRI)...
TODAY-TONIGHT...CURRENTLY WATCHING MCS MOVING OUT OF MICHIGAN AND
INTO LONDON PLAIN.  SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT 500 MB WAVE
ROTATING AROUND CLOSED LOW OVER UP OF MICHIGAN.  THIS WAVE WILL
CRASH INTO DWONSTREAM 500 MB RIDGE...AND SHOULD WEAKEN....BUT
PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH SO THAT THAT MCS DISINTEGRATES...BUT ENOUGH
WEAKEN SHOULD OCCUR THAT IT BECOMES A WEAK CLUSTER OF SHRA...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED TSRA.  BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT AND TRENDS...MOST
SIGNIFINGANT PART OF SYSTEM WILL PASS S OF CWA...AND PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM SHOULD  REACH WRN ZONES AROUND 09Z.  MODELS
SUGGESTING CLOSED LOW TIGHTENS UP AND ACTUALLY SHOWS SIGNS OF A
BRIEF NEG TILT OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS.  MODELS ALSO INDICATING A
WEAK COUPLED JET STRUCTURE DEVELOPING OVER CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SEEMS LIKE IT WOULD BE HARD NOT TO SEE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.  IF THIS WERE
NOVEMBER...THE DECISION TO THROW CAT POPS OUT THERE WOULD BE
EASY...BUT IN JULY ITS MORE ABOUT CONVECTION AND THUS COVERAGE...SO
WILL GO LKLY...AS THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE SOME AREAS THAT SEE NO
RAIN.  OTHER ISSUE IS OF COURSE HEAVY RAIN...CLOSED SYSTEMS IN JULY
ARE NOTORIOUS FOR PRODUCING HIGHLY LOCALIZED FLOODING...BUT IT WOULD
BE JUST THAT...LOCALIZED...AND TOO HARD TO PINPOINT TO ISSUE ANY
FLAGS.  WILL CONT THE LKLY TONIGHT...DON/T REALLY EXPECT ANY CHANGES
TO OCCUR...EXCEPT THAT LOSS OF HEATING MAY REDUCE COVERAGE...AND JET
STRUCTURE BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE...WITH WEAKENING UPPER LVL
DIVERGENCE.

THU-FRI...CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT EAST AND FILL DURING THIS
PERIOD.  MOST OF CWA WILL BE ON WEST SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS...BUT WAVES
WILL BE ROTATING AROUND SYTEM...SO WILL GO WITH CHC POPS...AND WILL
WAIT FOR LATER PERIODS TO FINE TUNE TIMING.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SLOW IMPRVMT THEN BEGINS AS DRIER AIR MVES IN ARND THE BASE OF THE
LOW AND THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT FRI NIGHT.  HOWEVER...LARGER
SCALE TROUGH PATTERN WILL EXIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONE BROKEN LINE OF TSRA MOVING ACROSS SRN TIER/NE PA AND COULD
EFFECT KAVP NEXT HOUR OR SO.  MORE SIGNIFICANT WILL BE REMNANTS OF
MCS CURRENTLY OVER LAKE ERIE/SW ONT...WHICH SHOULD HIT
KELM/KITH/KSYR BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z.  IN GENERAL CIGS WILL IMPROVE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH VISBYS COULD DROP IN BR.  VFR/MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...WITH TEMP IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
PA...NONE.

&&

CEMPA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
353 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-141030-
BRADFORD PA-BROOME NY-CHEMUNG NY-CHENANGO NY-CORTLAND NY-DELAWARE NY-
LACKAWANNA PA-LUZERNE PA-MADISON NY-NORTHERN ONEIDA NY-
NORTHERN WAYNE PA-ONONDAGA NY-OTSEGO NY-PIKE PA-SCHUYLER NY-
SENECA NY-SOUTHERN CAYUGA NY-SOUTHERN ONEIDA NY-SOUTHERN WAYNE PA-
STEUBEN NY-SULLIVAN NY-SUSQUEHANNA PA-TIOGA NY-TOMPKINS NY-
WYOMING PA-YATES NY-
353 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.  ANY STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING
AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...WHILE AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TO COULD PRODUCE FLOODING TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
FORMAL SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN THEIR REPORTS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON.

MJC