Flash Flood Warning 100, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
300 AM EST SUN NOV 28 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - MONDAY)...
STRONG...NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH...WELL SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON.
PRONOUNCED LIFT AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A RELATIVELY BRIEF SHOT OF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON.  IN GENERAL...WERE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA...WITH
LOCALIZED AREAS IN THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS SEEING 2.0 TO 2.5
INCHES WITH AN ADDED UPSLOPE COMPONENT.  WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE
THESE AMOUNTS WITHOUT ANY MAJOR PROBLEMS.

LOCAL WIND PROFILERS AND RADARS INDICATE THAT WINDS OF 50-60 KNOTS
ARE BEING OBSERVED AS LOW AS ABOUT 3000 FEET AS OF THIS WRITING.
ALTHOUGH WE FEEL MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE THESE KIND OF WIND SPEEDS
GIVEN A FAIRLY STABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE RIDGE TOP AREAS TO SEE GUSTS REACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA (AROUND 50 MPH).  THUS...WELL KEEP THE ADVISORY
GOING FOR NOW.  EVEN THOUGH THE LOWER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO
STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THE ENVIRONMENTAL
WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY THIS TIME AS THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS
EASTWARD.  THUS...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SINKING MOTION AND OVERALL DRYING SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WHERE COLD ADVECTION
AND FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES COULD LEAD TO A MARGINAL LAKE
RESPONSE...WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.

ON MONDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED AREA-WIDE.
-MJ

&&

.AVIATION...
RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION TODAY...WITH WINDS STRONG THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERE GENERATING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. AT THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED IN THE 15 KT TO 25 KT RANGE...WITH
GUSTS OVER 30 KTS EXPECTED. CIGS WILL BE REDUCED TO 700-1200 FEET AT
TIMES.  -DJP

&&

.LONG TERM...

CONTINUED WITH THE CANADIAN/EURO FOR THE MEDIUM RNG, BUT LATEST 12Z
GFS RUN INDICATES THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED FOR MIDWEEK MAY STAY
SOUTH OF RGN. IF THAT IS THE CASE, THEN WELL ONLY BE AFFECTED BY
WEAK NRN STREAM S/WVS WITH LIMITED MSTR. TIMING ALWAYS DIFFICULT,
SPCLY WHEN OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS BLO NORMAL. MADE VERY LTL CHG TO
CRNT XTNDD FCST AT THIS TIME, PREFERRING CONTINUITY OVER SIG CHGS
BASED ON 1 MDL RUN. IF TREND CONTINUES HOWEVER, WELL HAVE TO CUT
BACK ON THE CHCS FOR PCPN FOR MIDWEEK.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING...ENTIRE AREA.
.PA...WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING...ENTIRE AREA.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
310 AM EST SUN NOV 28 2004

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-290818-
BRADFORD-BROOME-CHEMUNG-CHENANGO-CORTLAND-DELAWARE-LACKAWANNA-
LUZERNE-MADISON-NORTHERN ONEIDA-NORTHERN WAYNE-ONONDAGA-OTSEGO-PIKE-
SCHUYLER-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
STEUBEN-SULLIVAN-SUSQUEHANNA-TIOGA-TOMPKINS-WYOMING-YATES-
310 AM EST SUN NOV 28 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING...WHEN
GUSTS COULD REACH 50 MPH OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THUS...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CONTINUED A WIND ADVISORY THIS
MORNING. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE PRODUCT
ALBNPWBGM.

HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO FALL AT TIMES TODAY. IN GENERAL...1 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
2.5 INCHES IN THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF EITHER HIGH WINDS
OR PARTICULARLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

MJ