Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS La Crosse, WI

May 9, 2004Fillmore County, Houston County, Minnesota

NWS La Crosse, WI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 9, 2004, 11:45 PM CDT for Fillmore County, Houston County, Minnesota. It was in force for 60 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 9, 2004, 11:45 PM CDT (04:45 UTC)
Expired: May 10, 2004, 12:45 AM CDT
In force: 60 min
Issued by: NWS La Crosse, WI
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Fillmore County, MN, Houston County, MN

The radar

The La Crosse radar (KARX), 53 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 9, 7:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 00:00Z, 4.8 hours before the alert went out and 253 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 903 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -14 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1798 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 4 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -12 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -3 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

450 
WUUS53 KARX 100445
SVRARX
MNC045-055-100545-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1145 PM CDT SUN MAY 9 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
  FILLMORE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA

* UNTIL 1245 AM CDT

* AT 1145 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DETECTED A LINE OF
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES
  NORTHWEST OF CALEDONIA TO 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF CRESCO. THE SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  HOUSTON AND COUNTY 9 AND SATHER VALLEY ROAD AROUND 1155 PM CDT...
  SHELDON AND LENORA AROUND MIDNIGHT CDT...
  RICEFORD AND NEWBURG AROUND 1205 AM CDT...
  HIGHWAY 44 AND SANDEN ROAD AND MOUND PRAIRIE AROUND 1210 AM CDT...

THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL.
FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4383 9168 4371 9195 4369 9242 4352 9243
          4351 9182 4352 9126 4383 9129

$$

THOMPSON

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS La Crosse, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 9, 3:01 PM CDT, 8 hours 44 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 9, 3:01 PM CDT, 8 hours 44 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
301 PM CDT SUN MAY 9 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM ARE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
TONIGHT. AFTER THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MID WEEK.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM LOW THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NEBRASKA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING CELLS BEGINNING TO FORM NEAR
TRIPLE POINT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD FORMING
ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

12Z 09MAY04 MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. STILL
SOME QUESTION AS TO THE QPF...WITH THE MODELS DIFFERING
SOMEWHAT. OVERALL LEANING TOWARD THE ETA IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH MORE
INFLUENCE FROM THE GFS BEYOND 36 HOURS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD
TONIGHT...WITH REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA GETTING INTO THE WARM
SECTOR. WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES AROUND
3000 J/KG AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. CAP ALREADY BREAKING WITH CELL
DEVELOPMENT NEAR TRIPLE POINT IN WESTERN MINNESOTA. ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND ALONG AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALONG BOUNDARY TO ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR SUPER-CELLS THIS EVENING.
CURRENT MODERATE RISK OUT FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LOOKS GOOD.

COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY
POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY TUESDAY...AND THE
FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AGAIN.  WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS TUESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT THE AREA SHOULD BE SAFE FROM CONVECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS DUE IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF
WEDNESDAY.  HAVE LEFT RAIN CHANCES AS THEY WERE IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

OVERALL PATTERN TO REMAIN WITH TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND
RIDGING IN THE EAST. THUS KEEPING FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY...WITH THE GFS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL VERSUS THE
ECMWF. LAST SEVERAL BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF AND
PREFER THIS SOLUTION...KEEPING POPS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY AND KEPT THE LOW POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.ARX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

&&

RABERDING

Hazardous weather outlook, May 9, 12:36 PM CDT, 11 hours 9 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1236 PM CDT SUN MAY 9 2004

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-101100-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AUSTIN...BLACK RIVER FALLS...
CHARLES CITY...DECORAH...LA CROSSE...MAUSTON...MEDFORD...
NEILLSVILLE...OELWEIN...PLATTEVILLE...PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...
RICHLAND CENTER...ROCHESTER...SPARTA/TOMAH...VIROQUA...WAUKON...
WINONA
1236 PM CDT SUN MAY 9 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

AS THE CAP WEAKENS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND NORTHEAST IOWA...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 3 PM. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT.
AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND
SOUTHERN IOWA ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH HAIL THE MAIN
THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BOYNE

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 9, 11:10 PM CDT, 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1110 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1041 PM     HAIL             MONTANA                 44.35N 91.67W
05/09/2004  0.75 INCH        BUFFALO            WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED BY SHERIFF DEPUTY COMING ON DUTY.

&&

SHEA

Local storm report, May 9, 11:12 PM CDT, 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1112 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1112 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NW WABASHA            44.40N 92.09W
05/09/2004                   WABASHA            MN   AMATEUR RADIO

            SKYWARN OBSERVER REPORTED 3.50 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR.

&&

SHEA

Local storm report, May 9, 11:22 PM CDT, 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1122 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1121 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ARCADIA                 44.25N 91.49W
05/09/2004                   TREMPEALEAU        WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STREETS FLOODING.

&&

SHEA

Local storm report, May 9, 11:23 PM CDT, 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1123 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1123 PM     HAIL             GALESVILLE              44.08N 91.36W
05/09/2004  0.25 INCH        TREMPEALEAU        WI   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SHEA

Local storm report, May 9, 11:37 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1137 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1132 PM     HAIL             5 SW SPRING VALLEY      43.63N 92.46W
05/09/2004  0.75 INCH        MOWER              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SHEA

Special weather statement, May 9, 11:45 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

WIZ017-029-100500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1145 PM CDT SUN MAY 9 2004

...PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAVE BEEN CLEARED FROM
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 176...

IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

TAYLOR AND CLARK.

RIECK

The office that day

Everything else NWS La Crosse, WI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 9, 7:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ARX	Wabasha	63 min
May 9, 9:10 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	ARX	Wabasha	4 hr
May 9, 10:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ARX	Wabasha	59 min
May 9, 10:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ARX	Dodge, Olmsted	67 min
May 9, 10:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ARX	Mower	73 min
May 9, 10:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ARX	Winona	68 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2004 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.