Special Marine Warning 39, NWS Gaylord, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
357 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2004

.SHORT TERM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 528 PRETTY MUCH TELLS THE
STORY.  THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER OFF
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...AND ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER ALONG ELEVATED
TERRAIN AND AIDED BY LAKE BREEZE (HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE WITH
THESE LATTER STORMS).  MAIN COLD FRONT PRESSING TOWARD THE WESTERN
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ALONG IT FROM THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MN.  CAPES ABOVE 1500 J/KG
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DECENT SHEAR (30 KTS 0-6KM SHEAR)...
INTERESTING MAXIMUM IN EHI (2-2.5) AND 0-2KM VGP (0.2-0.3) EAST OF
MQT AS WELL.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR THESE STORMS FOR ROTATION
POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...OVERALL PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED TO
FIND THE WESTERN LAKES BETWEEN STRONGER WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH AND
A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO TODAY WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR
FRIDAY AHEAD OF DEVELOPING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST.  COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE WAY BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND RISING HEIGHTS BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.  THIS REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  SO ONLY REAL ISSUE HEADING INTO
SATURDAY IS LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY...WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE MORNING UNTIL COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  OTHERWISE LOOKING AT A DRY AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.  MARINE ISSUES...LOOKING AT
SOME LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE
SOUTH OF THUNDER BAY AS WELL AS ALONG THE MACKINAC/SOUTHERN CHIPPEWA
COUNTY SHORELINE.

FRIDAY...SIMILAR STORY FOR FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE AREA
ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY WITH
WIDESPREAD LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

EXTENDED PERIODS (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LARGE SCALE PATTERN
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK SEEMS TO BE FAVORING GENERAL MEAN TROUGHING
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...NO BIG TIME HEAT ON THE HORIZON FOR THE
WESTERN LAKES THOUGH NOT A COOL PATTERN EITHER.  WITH UPPER WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND...STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
THIS IS GOING TO EVOLVE WITH GFS CONTINUING TO TRY AND TREND BACK
TOWARD A STRONGER UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY.  MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COMING OUT OF
THE ARCTIC WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN LAKES FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.  ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLES/ETA CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WEAKER SURFACE WAVE TO THE SOUTH AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL
PASSAGE FROM THE NORTH.  WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THIS
IDEA...THOUGH REALLY ALL THIS MEANS IS RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE (AND WILL CARRY IT ALL DAY SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR MODEL ERROR IN FRONTAL TIMING...WITH ECMWF TRENDING
SLOWER).  WILL KEEP MONDAY DRY FOR THE TIME BEING...THOUGH THAT
ASSUMES THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY THAT TIME NOT TO
IMPACT AT LEAST NORTHERN LOWER...AND RIGHT NOW NOT TOTALLY SURE THIS
WILL BE THE CASE WITH WEAK WAVES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.  ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN SPINNING
ALONG BC COAST SINCE THIS PAST WEEKEND...TRAPPED UNDER GULF OF AK
BLOCKING RIDGE.  THIS PIECE OF ENERGY FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...00Z GFS DEVELOPED A NICE LITTLE TROUGH WITH THIS
FEATURE AND KEPT IT OUT WEST...OTHER GUIDANCE IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND PREFER THAT IDEA WITH 06Z GFS ALSO LEANING THIS WAY.  WITH THIS
IN MIND...WILL INTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

JPB

&&

.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...
    UNTIL 10 PM...MIZ008-015>019.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
302 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2004

MIZ008-015>019-010200-
CHARLEVOIX-CHEBOYGAN-CHIPPEWA-EMMET-MACKINAC-PRESQUE ISLE-
302 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2004

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
     CHEBOYGAN...PRESQUE ISLE...CHARLEVOIX AND EMMET

IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
     CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS OF AFFECTED
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR
GREATER AND HAIL LARGER THAN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. ALL
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DEADLY LIGHTNING. IF YOU LIVE IN OR NEAR THE
WATCH AREA...REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES.

JPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
349 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     HAIL             BLACK RIVER             44.82N 83.31W
06/30/2004  0.75 INCH        ALCONA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER OBSERVED 3/4 INCH HAIL

0316 PM     HAIL             3 SW HARRISVILLE        44.63N 83.34W
06/30/2004  1.00 INCH        ALCONA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER OBSERVED 1 INCH HAIL

&&

BERGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
403 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     HAIL             1 W OSCODA              44.42N 83.36W
06/30/2004  1.00 INCH        IOSCO              MI   AMATEUR RADIO

            SKYWARN COORDINATOR RELAYED REPORT OF 1 INCH HAIL FROM
            TRAINED SPOTTER.

0352 PM     HAIL             7 W OSCODA              44.42N 83.48W
06/30/2004  1.75 INCH        IOSCO              MI   AMATEUR RADIO

            SKYWARN COORDINATOR RELAYED REPORT FROM TRAINED SPOTTER
            OF GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL.

0350 PM     HAIL             5 W OSCODA              44.42N 83.44W
06/30/2004  1.75 INCH        IOSCO              MI   AMATEUR RADIO

            SKYWARN COORDINATER RECEIVED REPORT OF GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL
            FROM TRAINED SPOTTER.

&&

BERGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
418 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0416 PM     HAIL             3 S OSCODA              44.38N 83.33W
06/30/2004  1.00 INCH        IOSCO              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMD