Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Gaylord, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
315 PM EDT TUE JUL 20 2004

.SHORT TERM...A WASHED OUT COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS N LOWER
IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SE. AHEAD OF IT, THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BROKEN
OUT IN THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TONIGHT...WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT, THE FORCING WILL ONLY BE AS
GOOD AS THE DIURNAL HEATING. SO ONCE THE SUN SETS, THE THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY IN THE SE WILL BEGIN TO DISIPATE. OVERNIGHT WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION WINDS WILL DECOUPLE. WITH THE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL EXPECT FOG OVERNIGHT IN
SE AS THE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID 60S OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY WILL RIDE OVER
TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
MODELS STILL SHOW MCS OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKES WEDNESDAY
MORNING...DIVING E-SE INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THRU THE MORNING
HOURS.  PLENTY OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY SURGING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  HUMIDITY WILL BECOME VERY UNCOMFORTABLE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.  WEAKLY CAPPED AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY...WITH CAPES AROUND
2000 J/KG AND LI/S OF -3 TO -5.   OUTFLOWS FROM MORNING MCS AND WEAK
VORT CENTER MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD ALL THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK
THROUGH WEAK CAP AND DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.  BEST COVERAGE
OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND 500MB
VORT CENTER.  MORE DIFFICULT QUESTION FURTHER NORTH INTO EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN.  NOT MUCH TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS ON DURING THE DAY
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...AS VORT CENTER MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST.  I WILL UP POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN EASTERN UPPER...AS AIRMASS BECOMES
MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROF POSSIBLY PRODUCING ADDITIONAL STORMS
AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE WESTERN LAKES.

STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE LACKING.
THE NEGATIVES SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND WILL ONLY PUT
LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST.  QUITE WARM AND HUMID FOR MANY PARTS OF
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH AREAS SOUTH OF M-55
POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90 DEGF.

THE WEATHER TURNS QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
COOL UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGS THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND LARGE SURFACE
HIGH DRIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...GRADUALLY MODIFYING BACK TOWARD NORMAL
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  GFSLR SHOWS CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT WEEK WITH PCPN GRADUALLY WORKING
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKES.  THIS IS SOLUTION NOT SUPPORTED BY
EITHER THE CANADIAN OR ECMWF AND WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ATTM.

&&

.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

JK/LUTZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
510 AM EDT TUE JUL 20 2004

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-LSZ321-322-LMZ323-341-342-344-345-
LHZ345>349-211100-
ALCONA-ALPENA-ANTRIM-ARENAC-BENZIE-CHARLEVOIX-CHEBOYGAN-CHIPPEWA-
CRAWFORD-EMMET-GLADWIN-GRAND TRAVERSE-IOSCO-KALKASKA-LEELANAU-
MACKINAC-MANISTEE-MISSAUKEE-MONTMORENCY-OGEMAW-OSCODA-OTSEGO-
PRESQUE ISLE-ROSCOMMON-WEXFORD...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT WATERS
WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON
AND LAKE SUPERIOR
510 AM EDT TUE JUL 20 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF M-72.  A FEW OF
THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AROUND ONE INCH IN DIAMETER
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.  THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO END BY 11 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD
BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/APX (ALL LOWER CASE)

JPB