Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
332 AM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004

.DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. FOR TONIGHT...BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE HIGHER CAPE
VALUES ARE PROGGED AND THE PATH OF THE NEXT UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE ZONES WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IMPROVE LATE
SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLES
WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN ANY CAP. THIS...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED
UPPER DISTURBANCE...OME UPSLOPE ERLY FLOW...AND A STONGER LOW LVL
JET...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED TSTMS. ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS SUN NIGHT...BEFORE MID LVL FLOW BECOMES WEAKER AS RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER FLOW TO BECOME MORE SWLY BY MIDWEEK.
CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DRYLINE INDUCED STORM NEXT WEEK...BUT BY
FAR MOST AREAS TO REMAIN JUST WARM...BREEZY AND DRY.

COULD BE A MINOR COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY PER SAT NIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND INTENSIFYING RIDGE WILL MAKE FOR A VERY
WARM DAY MONDAY. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO     89  64  90  62 /  20  20  30  30
BEAVER       85  65  89  64 /  30  30  20  20
BOISE CITY   92  56  88  59 /  20  20  20  20
BORGER       90  65  92  64 /  20  20  20  20
BOYS RANCH   92  63  96  63 /  20  20  30  30
CANYON       91  64  92  62 /  20  20  30  30
CLARENDON    91  67  94  66 /  20  30  30  30
DALHART      93  61  92  61 /  20  20  30  30
GUYMON       90  63  90  61 /  30  30  20  20
HEREFORD     92  64  94  62 /  20  20  30  30
LIPSCOMB     85  66  90  67 /  30  30  20  20
PAMPA        90  64  91  63 /  20  30  20  20
SHAMROCK     88  67  91  67 /  20  30  30  30
WELLINGTON   88  69  91  67 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

04/09

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-051100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
100 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST DEVELOP OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM UTAH. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOME OF THE STORMS WHICH FORM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. ATMOSPHERIC WIND PROFILES MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL.

CAUTION IS ALSO ADVISED ON AREA LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS ALL OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE NECESSARY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.

ANDRADE