Severe Thunderstorm Warning 219, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
338 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2004

.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT FINALLY MADE ITS WAY INTO
THE AREA. SPC HAS PUT OUR WESTERN ZONES IN THE SLIGHT RISK
CATEGORY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. SHORT TERM FORECASTER ISSUED AN
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY DURING TO THE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...RADAR ESTIMATED THREE HOUR RAINFALL AT GREATER THAN 2 INCHES.
WV LOOP SHOWS NO SIGN OF LET UP WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME...THOUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PUSHING THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY EAST WITH
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DRYING IN OUR WESTERN CWA. THIS DRYER AREA IS
PRODUCING OUR STRONGEST CONVECTIVE STORMS AND WE EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THEY GENERALLY AGREE ON
TIMING AND POSITION. THE GFS FINALLY GOT A HANDLE ON THE FRONT AND
NOW PUSHES IT FURTHER INTO OUR ZONE...A MORE REALISTIC SOLUTION.
PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE PRODUCED QUALITY GRIDS IN TRACKING THE FRONT SO
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. ONLY CAVEAT BEING A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT TO THE POP AND QPF GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR FRONTAL
MOVEMENT...AND THE ADDITION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTHER ZONES. WITH
THE EXTREMELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND LOWERING TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...THE THINKING WAS THAT FOG WOULD DEVELOP ALONG OR NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL EXIT OUR CWA BY 12Z
THURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS ITS BURST TO THE NORTHEAST...SO
POPS AND WEATHER WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH.

MODELS STILL UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...THOUGH SOME GENERAL TRENDS ARE IN AGREEMENT. SOLUTIONS
BRING IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOWS NEGATIVELY TILTED AXIS SLICING THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THE
TREND IS TO THEN BRING A BROAD RIDGE OVER CANADA AND GENERALLY WEAK
FLOW OVER MOST OF THE US. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK...BUT
PERSISTENT...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW POPS
WERE INSERTED INTO THE DAY 5 AND DAY 7 GRIDS BY PREVIOUS SHIFT AND
THERE SEEMED TO BE NO REASON TO CHANGE THAT THINKING. OVERALL
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME TO JUMP ON ANYTHING TOO
SERIOUSLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO     54  72  50  77 /  60  20   0   0
BEAVER       49  72  51  78 /  80  40   0   0
BOISE CITY   44  69  46  75 /  50  10   0   0
BORGER       53  72  51  77 /  80  20   0   0
BOYS RANCH   49  72  49  76 /  60  10   0   0
CANYON       54  73  50  77 /  60  10   0   0
CLARENDON    57  74  53  79 /  60  20  10   0
DALHART      47  72  48  76 /  50  10   0   0
GUYMON       48  73  49  77 /  80  20   0   0
HEREFORD     51  74  50  77 /  40  10   0   0
LIPSCOMB     55  73  51  78 /  70  30   0   0
PAMPA        56  73  52  78 /  80  30   0   0
SHAMROCK     59  75  53  79 /  50  30  10   0
WELLINGTON   61  75  54  80 /  40  30  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

03/14

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2004

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-231100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
100 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...OVER ALL OF THE PANHANDLES EXCEPT THE
NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

COCKRELL