Severe Thunderstorm Warning 213, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
304 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL KEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE TODAY CAUSING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
WITH GOOD UPSLOPE 850 MB INFLOW FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AGREE WITH WSFO LUB THAT MCS
LIKELY TO AFFECT THE WESTERN PANHANDLES TONIGHT.  DECIDED TO BUMP UP
POPS TONIGHT TO LIKELY OVER THE SWRN SECTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
THE FAR NERN SECTIONS.  VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.  NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...SO KEPT CONSISTENCY OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MADE
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES.  CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS
IN THE 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE GRADUAL WARMUP NEXT
WEEK.  UPPER HIGH POSSIBLY BUILDS FURTHER EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BY
TUE AND WED...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LESS CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST/S TREND OF LESS THAN 20 PERCENT
POPS AND THEN INCREASE THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY
NIGHT AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO     59  79  59  79 /  50  20  20  20
BEAVER       54  78  58  79 /  20  20  20  20
BOISE CITY   56  74  54  77 /  50  30  30  20
BORGER       57  81  62  79 /  40  20  20  20
BOYS RANCH   58  80  59  80 /  60  30  30  20
CANYON       58  81  59  80 /  50  20  20  20
CLARENDON    62  83  62  82 /  40  20  20  20
DALHART      57  76  57  78 /  60  30  30  20
GUYMON       55  77  57  78 /  30  30  30  20
HEREFORD     59  81  58  81 /  60  30  30  20
LIPSCOMB     58  79  61  79 /  30  20  20  20
PAMPA        59  81  62  78 /  40  20  20  20
SHAMROCK     63  81  63  82 /  30  10  10  20
WELLINGTON   63  85  63  84 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

17/11

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-131100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
100 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...
MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR. AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
REACH SEVERE STRENGTH...RESULTING IN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.

JORDAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
415 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004

TXZ001>020-130200-

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 747. THIS WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT THURSDAY AND
INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE:
DALLAM...SHERMAN...HANSFORD...OCHILTREE...POTTER...LIPSCOMB...
HARTLEY...MOORE...HUTCHINSON...ROBERTS...HEMPHILL...OLDHAM...
CARSON...GRAY...WHEELER...DEAF SMITH...RANDALL...ARMSTRONG...
DONLEY...COLLINGSWORTH...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...AMARILLO...BOOKER...BORGER...
CANADIAN...CANYON...CLARENDON...CLAUDE...DALHART...DUMAS...HARTLEY...
HEREFORD...MIAMI...PAMPA...PANHANDLE...PERRYTON...SHAMROCK...
SPEARMAN...STRATFORD...VEGA...WELLINGTON...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
426 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004

TXZ013-122215-
CARSON TX-
426 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN CARSON COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF PANHANDLE AT
426 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. PERSONS IN
PANHANDLE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
434 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004

TXZ014-122230-
GRAY-
434 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN GRAY COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED IN GRAY COUNTY ABOUT 15 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF LEFORS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. PERSONS IN
PANHANDLE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

HENNIG

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