Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
316 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX...MCV...LOCATED IN THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE MOVING SLOWLY EAST AS EVIDENT ON KAMA RADAR AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING AT THE MOMENT EAST
OF THE MCV FROM AROUND KAMA TO NEAR SPEARMAN.  AS THE MCV REMAINS IN
THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION ANYWHERE IN THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  THE BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE IN THE WESTERN
HALF WHERE CONVECTION OVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN NM AND SOUTHERN CO IS FORECASTED TO WORK DOWN INTO THE
PANHANDLES ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  UPPER HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES FORECASTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.  THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL
WARRANT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EVERYDAY FOR ABOUT THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE LATE THURDAY AND FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO PUSH DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COOLER AND MORE MOIST CONDITIONS
AS THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ALLOW SHORTWAVES TO DROP
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE PANHANDLES.  DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGES TO THE
GRIDS EXCEPT FOR TWEAKING OF TEMPS...WINDS...AND SKY CONDITION.  ALSO
ADJUSTED DEW POINT AND THUS RELATIVE HUMIDITY GRIDS AS WELL.
HOWEVER...POP AND WEATHER GRIDS LOOK ON TRACK AND MADE NO CHANGES.
THOUGHT ABOUT BUMPING UP POPS GRIDS TO CHANCE CATEGORY DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE
ALONE AND LET LATER SHIFTS WATCH AND CHANGE ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO     68  91  68  90 /  30  20  20  30
BEAVER       70  93  69  93 /  30  20  20  40
BOISE CITY   65  91  64  89 /  30  30  30  40
BORGER       70  93  69  92 /  30  20  20  30
BOYS RANCH   68  92  68  90 /  30  20  20  40
CANYON       68  91  68  90 /  30  20  20  30
CLARENDON    70  94  70  93 /  20  20  10  30
DALHART      64  91  65  89 /  30  20  20  40
GUYMON       69  92  68  92 /  30  20  20  40
HEREFORD     67  90  67  90 /  30  20  20  30
LIPSCOMB     70  93  70  94 /  30  20  20  30
PAMPA        69  92  69  92 /  30  20  10  30
SHAMROCK     71  95  71  95 /  30  20  10  30
WELLINGTON   72  96  72  96 /  30  20  10  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

02/11

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-211100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
100 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO. WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AT THIS TIME.
AS A RESULT...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
340 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004

TXZ012-017-202200-
POTTER-RANDALL-
340 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN POTTER AND RANDALL COUNTIES...

THROUGH 5 PM...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS POTTER AND
RANDALL COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOUTH AND
WEST PARTS OF AMARILLO WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED. GUSTY WINDS TO
AROUND 50 MPH...HAIL UP TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH SIZE...DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE HALF OF
AN INCH WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

ANDRADE

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>