Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
303 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS STARTING TO GO NEAR METRO AMARILLO...SO DISCUSSION WILL BE
BRIEF.  EXPECT TO SEE STORMS INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TX PNHDL THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH INSTABILITIES AND THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MCS THAT MOVED OVER KS/OK IN THE AREA.
BOUNDARY COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL VORTICITY THAT
DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS WITH RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORMS IS
POSSIBLE. ALREADY HAVE HAD SOME REPORTS OF THIS ON FIRST STORM THAT
WENT UP...SO LANDSPOUTS WITH STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD BE A
PROBLEM EARLY ON AND THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THUS HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE PNHDL.

FOLLOWED THE ETA FOR SHORT TERM AS IT HAS SLOWED DOWN PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT TO DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TO
SEE IF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL AID IN PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH
EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.  REGARDLESS...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK PROVIDING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
EVERY DAY.  PROBABLY WILL SEE STORMS FIRE IN THE MTNS OF CO/NM AND
THEN ROLL TOWARDS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD SHOT OF AN
MCS DEVELOPING AND ROLLING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.  ALL-IN-
ALL...GRIDS/FCST LOOK GOOD FOR SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM GRIDS BEYOND WEDNESDAY WERE LEFT ALONE AS THEY APPEAR IN
GOOD SHAPE.  MODELS STILL SHOWING A GOOD CHANCE AT NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH TRANSLATES INTO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

FCSTID = JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO     66  88  62  79 /  60  50  50  20
BEAVER       64  82  62  82 /  50  50  50  20
BOISE CITY   59  81  57  81 /  60  50  50  20
BORGER       65  88  63  81 /  60  50  50  20
BOYS RANCH   63  89  63  81 /  70  50  50  20
CANYON       66  88  62  80 /  70  50  50  20
CLARENDON    69  90  66  82 /  40  50  50  20
DALHART      61  84  60  81 /  70  50  50  20
GUYMON       62  82  61  81 /  50  50  50  20
HEREFORD     64  87  63  82 /  60  40  40  20
LIPSCOMB     67  85  64  83 /  50  50  50  20
PAMPA        67  88  64  80 /  50  50  50  20
SHAMROCK     69  90  67  84 /  40  50  50  20
WELLINGTON   70  93  68  85 /  30  50  50  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

03/17

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-211100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
100 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
HEAVY RAINS. IN ADDITION...BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WILL NECESSITATE BOATERS TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON AREA LAKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
HEAVY RAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...
AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COCKRELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
606 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             BOISE CITY              36.73N 102.51W
06/20/2004  0.88 INCH        CIMARRON           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
626 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004

TXZ007-008-012-013-210015-
CARSON-HUTCHINSON-MOORE-POTTER-
626 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD LAKE MEREDITH...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DETECTED A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE WESTERN SHORE OF LAKE MEREDITH...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH...TOWARD LAKE MEREDITH...FRITCH...AND SANFORD.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF INCH HAIL...WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM THE DANGER OF
LIGHTNING.

COCKRELL

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