Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
656 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

.UPDATE...
HAVE ISSUED UPDT TO GRIDS AND ZONE FCSTS...CALLING FOR NMRS TO SCT
TSTMS THIS EVE IN WRN ZNS.  KEEPING SLGT CHC POPS GOING ERN ZNS.  NO
CHANGES TO LATER PDS ATTM.  JC/RS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS FRONTAL PASSAGES. MODELS BRING A
FRONT DOWN ON WEDNESDAY...GFS HAS TRIED TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONT
SLIGHTLY...BUT EXPECT MCS TONIGHT TO HELP ACCELERATE ITS SOUTHWARD
MOTION. SHOULD SEE IT ENTER OUR AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD HELP IT DROP SOUTH
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. OUGHT TO SEE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
TOMORROW AND THURSDAY AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. ON FRIDAY...LOW DEVELOPS
OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AS THE EARLIER PROGGED FRIDAY/SATURDAY
COLD FRONT HEADS SOUTH. IT SHOULD MAKE A STRONG SOUTHWARD PUSH
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...AND OUGHT TO BE IN THE CWA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COULD HELP
GIVE US PRECIP ON SATURDAY...SO RAISED POPS ON SATURDAY TO 30
PERCENT. CONVECTION ALONG IT SHOULD HELP IT PUSH SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY...BUT PRESSURE FALLS OVER NEW MEXICO BACK OUR
WINDS SUNDAY EVENING...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO MAKE NORTHWARD
MOVEMENT BY MONDAY. KEPT POPS ON MONDAY WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
RETURN ON SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT OUGHT TO COOL DOWN SOME. KEPT TEMPS GENERALLY
AS THEY WERE IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...
BUT SOME RECOVERY SOON AFTER.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

13/03

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
259 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-160500-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
259 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS. CAUTION IS ADVISED ON AREA LAKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

GOEHRING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
441 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

TXZ011-152300-
OLDHAM-
441 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER RURAL OLDHAM AND DEAF SMITH COUNTIES...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS RURAL SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL OLDHAM AND FAR WESTERN DEAF SMITH COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM.
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AS
THEY MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. OTHER STORMS WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER WESTERN DEAF SMITH COUNTY 5 TO 10 MILES EAST OF THE
NEW MEXICO STATE LINE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES NEAR ONE AND A HALF INCH PER HOUR
AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL MAY BE EXPECTED.

SLATTERY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
443 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

TXZ011-016-152300-
DEAF SMITH-OLDHAM-
443 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER RURAL OLDHAM AND DEAF SMITH COUNTIES...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS RURAL SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL OLDHAM AND FAR WESTERN DEAF SMITH COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM.
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AS
THEY MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. OTHER STORMS WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER WESTERN DEAF SMITH COUNTY 5 TO 10 MILES EAST OF THE
NEW MEXICO STATE LINE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES NEAR ONE AND A HALF INCH PER HOUR
AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL MAY BE EXPECTED.

SLATTERY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
519 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

OKZ001-TXZ001-152330-
CIMARRON-DALLAM-
519 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN CIMARRON AND DALLAM COUNTIES...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS RURAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST CIMARRON AND FAR NORTHWESTERN DALLAM COUNTIES THROUGH
630 PM. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OVER RURAL
AREAS AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. OTHER STORMS WILL
STRENGTHEN AND APPROACH DALHART AND BOISE CITY LATER THIS EVENINIG.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES NEAR ONE AND A HALF INCH PER HOUR
AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL MAY BE EXPECTED.

SLATTERY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
651 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0637 PM     TSTM WND GST     BOISE CITY              36.73N 102.51W
06/15/2004  77 MPH           CIMARRON           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEASURED FROM VEHICLE ANEMOMETER.

&&

GOEHRING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
711 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SSE BOISE CITY        36.69N 102.49W
06/15/2004  58 MPH           CIMARRON           OK   MESONET

&&

GOEHRING