Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
205 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2004

.DISCUSSION...MARINE LAYER ENTRENCHED ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MORNING HAS BEEN ERODING.  MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS GENERATED OFF ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAVE MOVED
PAST MUCH OF REGION. ACTIVITY WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AS IT
ENCOUNTERED MARINE LAYER.  CLOUDS SHOWED LOTS OF HOLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK BY LATE MORNING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
WORKING EAST THROUGH CWA THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
IN WARM AIR HAVE RISEN TO NEAR 70 F AND 57-63 F RESPECTIVELY. AIR
EVEN WARMER AND MORE MOIST ACROSS PARTS OF PA. MUCAPES WILL APPROACH
2000 J/KG TO OUR WEST MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ETA INDICATES THIS
INSTABILITY WILL WORK INTO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF CWA. WITH CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS RAPIDLY EASTWARD.  850 MB NOT REALLY
IMPRESSIVE. ALOFT VERY STRONG LATE MAY JET (140 KT) FROM OH VALLEY
TO NJ. AREA WILL BE IN LEFT FRONT QUAD LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING WITH
LARGE DIVERGENCE IN FLOW PROVIDING LARGE SCALE UPWARD MOTION.  WHILE
850 MB FLOW REMAINS MODEST AT BEST, 500 MB WIND MAX OF 60+ KTS
REACHES WESTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK BY
00Z.  THIS WOULD PROVIDE DECENT DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO
ORGANIZE STORMS.  WHILE I FEEL THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER TO OUR SOUTHWEST MARINE LAYER COULD REDUCE INSTABILITY AND
SEVERE THREAT HERE.  HOWEVER GIVEN SURFACE TRENDS EXPECT SOME
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS AT LEAST WEST HALF OF CWA...AND IF SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOP TO OUR WEST THEY WOULD LIKELY SURVIVE AT LEAST PART
WAY INTO CWA.

SHOWER THREAT ENDS LATER THIS EVENING WITH DRY DAY THURSDAY.  NOT
MUCH OF A BREAK BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM PRODUCES SHOWERS/TRSA WITH MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME 06Z-15Z.  MODEL TREND HAS BEEN PROGRESSIVELY
FASTER AND WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE MAY BE LINGERING CLOUDS
AND EVEN --SHRA ACROSS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY
WILL LEAVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON DRY FOR NOW.  INSTABILITY WEAK.

EXTENDED...MUCH OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS MODELS OVER
PAST 2-3 DAYS HAVE SLOWED DOWN NEXT SYSTEM.  00-06Z GFS SUGGEST
EARLIEST SHOWER THREAT AFTER 18Z MONDAY.  12Z PRETTY MUCH IN LINE.
00Z CANADIAN WOULD BE FASTER BY 6-12 HOURS. WILL INCLUDE AFTERNOON
POPS. PREVIOUS VERY LONG RANGE PROGS (7-10 DAYS) CONTINUE SUGGEST
CLOSED LOW PARKING SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A DAMP COOL
PERIOD.

.AVIATION...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR-VFR AS ATMOSPHERE
MIXES AND CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP. OVERALL...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WITH MVFR WITH CONVECTION THAT FORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. AFTER COLD FRONT PASSAGE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH POSSIBLE MVFR DUE TO FOG BEFORE SUNRISE IN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS.

.HYDROLOGY...AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY/LOCALLY FLOODING RAINS PAST
FEW DAYS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES THIS EVENING...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY. QPF FROM THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING SYSTEM WONT CAUSE PROBLEMS.

.ALY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
523 AM EDT WED MAY 26 2004

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-271100-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN MUCH OF EASTERN NEW
YORK TODAY.  THE THREAT AREA IS FROM NEAR LAKE GEORGE SOUTH THROUGH
THE HUDSON VALLEY AND WEST ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS NOT QUITE AS GREAT AS IT WAS ON
MONDAY SINCE THE FORECAST WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG AND THE INSTABILITY
OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS GREAT.  THE PRIMARY
THREAT IS THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  ALSO...HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD TRIGGER LOCALIZED FLOODING.  THE AREA MOST PRONE TO
FLOODING IS THE REGION FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EAST TO SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY.  HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED A FEW DAYS AGO IN THIS
AREA AND STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.DAYS TWO THOUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...THE VOICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION AND MORE DETAIL...VISIT US ON THE
WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV. FROM THERE YOU CAN CLICK ON THE AREA
YOU ARE INTERESTED IN...AND VISIT THE LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE IN THAT
AREA.

NEW YORK STATEWIDE POLICE INFORMATION NETWORK
TROOP F
0546PM     WED MAY 26 2004
1 0000001 000
FMON WLSR AP30
01914    FILE 28   SP MONROE NY1350200                       MAY 26-04
TO       ORANGE COUNTY NY AGENCIES

          R O A D      C L O S E D

ST RT 17 BOTH DIRECTIONS CLOSED AT X127 CHESTER DUE TO SERIOUS PIAA

UNKNOWN DURATION

AUTH SGT BRUCE FURBECK                        DELATORRE 5-30PM
OPER - DELATORRE,JOAN M               1746

NEW YORK STATEWIDE POLICE INFORMATION NETWORK
TROOP F
0609PM     WED MAY 26 2004
1 0000001 000
FMON WLSR AP30
01915    FILE 28   SP MONROE NY1350200                       MAY 26-04
TO       ORANGE COUNTY NY AGENCIES

          R O A D      C L O S E D

ST RT 17EB NOW OPEN - 17WB STILL CLOSED APPROXIMATELY 30 MINUTES DURATION

AUTH SGT BRUCE FURBECK                        DELATORRE 6-07PM
OPER - DELATORRE,JOAN M               1808

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
626 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2004

NYZ047-262300-

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN SCHOHARIE COUNTY...

AT 621 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...SMALL HAIL...WINDS IN EXCESS OF
30 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NORTH BLENHEIM...OR ABOUT 12
MILES SOUTH OF COBLESKILL...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
MIDDLEBURGH BY 640 PM EDT
LIVINGSTONVILLE BY 645 PM EDT