Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
835 PM EDT SAT MAY 22 2004

.DISC...WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. A TORNADO
WATCH IN EFFECT TO THE SW OF OUR CWA UNTIL 03Z. A COUPLE OF NASTY
CELLS WITH VILS PULSING TO ABOUT 60...MAINLY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NY. MORE CELLS FIRING UP IN WESTERN NY ALONG WITH
AN MCS COMPLEX MOVING OVER LAKE ONTARIO. DONT SEE A WAY WE WILL
MISS MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SINCE WE ARE MAINLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (EXCEPT OUR SOUTHERN MOST
COUNTIES) WE BELIEVE THE THREAT OF SEVERE IS SLIM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH MCS COULD REACH 2 INCHES (PER THE ORIGINAL ETA MODEL). MOST OF
OUR HSA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS KIND OF RAIN...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ADIRONDACKS AND ULSTER COUNTY. THESE AREAS WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED BUT IN THE VERY SHORT TERM SHOULD BE OKAY. HAVE LOWER
TEMPS A SMIDGEN...MAINLY FROM KALB NORTH. NO CHANGES TO ANY OF THE
LATER PERIODS.

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR ACROSS
MOST OF OUR CWA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...DUE TO SHOWERS...POSSIBLE
THUNDER AND JUST NOCTURNAL FOG/HAZE FORMATION (DOWN SOUTH). WITH
HEAVIER SHOWERS CONDITIONS COULD TEMPORARILY PLUMMET TO IFR OR EVEN
LIFR. THE THUNDER THREAT WHILE THERE...NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY MORE THAN
A VCTS...BUT PILOTS SHOULD EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHTNING
LATER ON THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
INTO SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER
ACTIVITY.

.HYDROLOGY...AN MCS TO OUR WEST....WILL LIKELY BRING A PRETTY MODEST
QPF TO MUCH OF HSA...PERHAPS LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES. STILL TOO
EARLY TO PULL A TRIGGER ON A WATCH...BUT SOMETHING THAT HAS TO BE
MONITORED. FFG-12 HR VALUES FOR MOST OF OUR AREA ARE FAIRLY
HIGH...WHICH MIGHT MEAN OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS MIGHT TAKE THE HIT
THIS GO ROUND. MORE HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH MORE MCS
ACTIVITY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.ALY...NONE.

CORRECTED TYPO IN THE FIRST PARAGRAGH.

*************PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION**********************

DISC...STILL HAVE SAME BASIC PROBLEM AS YESTERDAY. MUCH DEPENDS ON
WHERE QSTRNY FNTL BNDRY WINDS UP. 12Z ETA MOS TEMPS APPEAR TO BE
TRENDING TOWARD MAV MOS TEMPS. SPC CONTS TO PUT ENTIRE CWA IN SLGT
RSK CAT THRU 12Z MON. SO FAR JUST A FEW STRAY CG LTNG STRIKES THIS
AFTN. MOST ACTIVE CELL IN NW PA APRS TO BE DRIFTING SLOWLY TO SE AND
ACTVTY HAS DCRD FOR THE MOMENT. LOOKS LIKE FNT WILL LIFT A BIT NWD
TNGT AS A WAVE MOVS ALG IT AND THEN STALL AGN OVR MHWK VLY TOMORROW.
WE WILL GET A FRONTAL PASSAGE MON AFTN AND A BRIEF RESPITE MONDAY
NIGHT BUT LOOKS LIKE NXT SYSTEM IN CHAIN WILL ARRIVE LT TUE WITH CHC
MORE PCPN.

.AVIATION...VFR THRU SUN EXCPT IFR IN OCNL SHWRS AND TSTMS.

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN MAY TRAIN ACROSS THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND IN AREAS WHEN
DOWNPOURS MOVE THROUGH REPEATEDLY.

.ALY...NONE.

GG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
946 AM EDT SAT MAY 22 2004

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-231200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THOUGH SEVEN...
A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL SLOWLY START TO LIFT NORTHWARD.  AS
THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...MORE HUMID AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.  THERE IS THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY.  IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1052 PM EDT SAT MAY 22 2004

NYZ049-050-053-054-230325-

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN SCHENECTADY...RENSSELAER AND SARATOGA
COUNTIES...

AT 1050 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...SMALL HAIL...WINDS IN EXCESS OF
40 MPH....FREQUENT LIGHTNING....AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR GLENVILLE...OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTH OF SCOTIA...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
CENTER BRUNSWICK...WATERFORD...TROY AND WYANTSKILL BY 1130 PM EDT
GRAFTON AND 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF AVERILL PARK BY 1140 PM EDT
BERLIN BY 1145 PM EDT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1144 PM EDT SAT MAY 22 2004

NYZ054-084-VTZ013-230430-

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN BENNINGTON...RENSSELAER AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES...

AT 1136 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...SMALL HAIL...WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH....AND HEAVY RAIN.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM CAMBRIDGE TO POWNAL...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SALEM TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF HOOSICK FALLS...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
SALEM AND BENNINGTON BY 1155 PM EDT
HIDDEN VALLEY AND SHAFTSBURY BY 1205 AM EDT
ARLINGTON BY 1210 AM EDT
MANCHESTER CENTER...DORSET AND MANCHESTER BY 1230 AM EDT

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL APPROACH AN INCH IN A FEW AREAS.

TAW/RCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1203 AM EDT SUN MAY 23 2004

CTZ001-230430-

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY...

AT 1152 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...SMALL HAIL...WINDS IN EXCESS OF
40 MPH....FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR SHARON...OR ABOUT 16 MILES NORTH OF NEW MILFORD...AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
TORRINGTON BY 1220 AM EDT
WINSTED AND NEW HARTFORD BY 1230 AM EDT

LIGHTNING IS THE THUNDERSTORMS WORST KILLER. HEAD FOR A SAVE AREA
WHEN THE STORM APPROACHES.

SOME FLOODING OF ROADS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
THE FLOODING WILL SUBSIDE TEN TO TWENTY MINUTES AFTER THE STORM
HAS PASSED.

RCK/TAW

NEW YORK STATEWIDE POLICE INFORMATION NETWORK
TROOP A
0003AM     SUN MAY 23 2004
#2 0000002 000
AGSO WLSR QHQT QTRF APTS WAPT
02256    FILE 28   GENESEE COUNTY SHERIFF                    MAY 22-04
TO       NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
         COPY SEMO DUTY OFFICER
                   THUNDERSTORM/HIGH WIND REPORT

COUNTY(S) AFFECTED: GENESEE

LOCATION (INCLUDING TOWN AND NEAREST ROAD): 10771 COOK RD T/PAVILION

DATE AND TIME CONDITION STARTED: APPROX 2245 HRS DATE
EXTENT OF DAMAGE OR AREAS IN DANGER: SMALL TREES DOWN - TIN ROOF PEELED FROM
A BARN LOCATED ABOVE AND BLOWN INTO NEARBY FIELD

CHECK ONE:
HAIL SIZE REPORTED
(X) - NO HAIL REPORTED    ( ) - LESS THAN 1/2 (PEA)
( ) - 1/2 (MARBLE)       ( ) - 1/2 TO 3/4 (PENNY)
( ) - 3/4 TO 1 (DIME)   ( ) - 1.25 (HALF DOLLAR)
( ) - 1.50 (WALNUT)      ( ) - 1.75 (GOLFBALL)
( ) - 2.00 (HENS EGG)    ( ) - 2.50 (TENNISBALL)
( ) - 2.75 (BASEBALL)    ( ) - 3.00 (TEA CUP)
( ) - 4.00 (GRAPEFRUIT)  ( ) - 4.50 (SOFTBALL)
NUMBER KILLED: 0        NUMBER INJURED: 0

CHECK ONE OR MORE AS APPLICABLE:
LIGHTNING REPORTED AS ( ) - CLOUD TO CLOUD  (X) - CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING DAMAGE TO:            ( ) - TREES
( ) - POWER/TELCO POLES   ( ) - POWER/TELCO LINES
( ) - COMM. BUILDINGS     ( ) - PRIVATE HOMES
( ) - OUT/FARM BUILDINGS  ( ) - CROPS
NUMBER KILLED: 0        NUMBER INJURED: 0

CHECK ONE OR MORE AS APPLICABLE:
HIGH WIND/TSTORM WIND DAMAGE   ( ) - CROPS
(X) - SMALL TREES/SHRUBS  ( ) - LARGE TREES
( ) - COMM. BUILDINGS     ( ) - PRIVATE HOMES
(X) - OUT/FARM BUILDINGS  ( ) - POWER/TELCO POLES
( ) - POWER/TELCO LINES

RELIABLE WIND SPEED REPORTS:     MPH OR    KNOTS
NUMBER KILLED: 0        NUMBER INJURED: 0

FLOODING (IF EXTENSIVE, SEND SEPARATE FLOOD MESSAGE FROM MENU)
( ) - STORM SEWER OVERFLOWS, UNDERPASSES, STREET FLOODING
( ) - LOCAL SMALL CREEKS OVERFLOWING
( ) - STREAMS AND LARGE CREEKS FLOODING (COMPLETE REMARKS W/DAMAGE

REMARKS: CALLER REPORTS A BARN ROOF PEELED OFF BARN AT ABOVE DURING A HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM - ROOF LOCATED IN NEARBY FIELD - DAMAGE TO SM SHRUBS OR TREES IN
AREA
AUTH PHONE #: 585 343-5000

AUTH PARKER,DEPUTY CHRISTOPHER A

OPER - HYNES FISHER,BETH              0002

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1212 AM EDT SUN MAY 23 2004

VTZ013>015-230445-

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM COUNTIES...

AT 1202 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...SMALL HAIL...WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH....FREQUENT LIGHTNING....AND HEAVY RAIN.  THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MANCHESTER TO
READSBORO...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MANCHESTER TO 9 MILES
NORTHEAST OF NORTH ADAMS...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
WEST WARDSBORO BY 1220 AM EDT
7 MILES SOUTH OF LONDONDERRY BY 1230 AM EDT
TOWNSHEND...NEWFANE...GUILFORD CENTER AND BRATTLEBORO BY 1245 AM EDT

LIGHTNING IS THE THUNDERSTORMS WORST KILLER. HEAD FOR A SAFE AREA
WHEN THE STORM APPROACHES.

SOME FLOODING OF ROADS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
THE FLOODING WILL SUBSIDE TEN TO TWENTY MINUTES AFTER THE STORM
HAS PASSED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1235 AM EDT SUN MAY 23 2004

NYZ084-VTZ013-230500-

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN BENNINGTON AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 1222 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...SMALL HAIL...WINDS IN EXCESS OF
40 MPH....FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CAMBRIDGE...OR ABOUT OVER HOOSICK FALLS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
HIDDEN VALLEY AND SHAFTSBURY BY 1240 AM EDT
ARLINGTON BY 1255 AM EDT
MANCHESTER AND 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANCHESTER CENTER BY 100 AM EDT

LIGHTNING IS THE THUNDERSTORMS WORST KILLER. HEAD FOR A SAFE AREA
BEFORE THE STORM ARRIVES.

SOME FLOODING OF ROADS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
THE FLOODING WILL SUBSIDE TEN TO TWENTY MINUTES AFTER THE STORM
HAS PASSED.

TAW/RCK