Alert archive / New York / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Albany, NY
NWS Albany, NY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 28, 2004, 6:15 PM EDT for Saratoga County, New York. It was in force for 30 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 28, 2004, 6:15 PM EDT (22:15 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 28, 2004, 6:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 30 min
- Issued by
- NWS Albany, NY
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Saratoga County, NY
The radar
The Albany radar (KENX), 54 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 39 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 187 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -28 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 570 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 16 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 71 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 66 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS51 KALY 282215 SVRALY NYC091-282245- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 614 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SARATOGA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK * UNTIL 645 PM EDT * AT 610 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ROCK CITY FALLS TO CLIFTON PARK...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF SARATOGA SPRINGS TO CLIFTON PARK...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. * SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR... CLIFTON PARK BY 620 PM EDT ROUND LAKE BY 625 PM EDT SARATOGA SPRINGS BY 630 PM EDT MECHANICVILLE BY 640 PM EDT LAT...LON 4319 7400 4279 7396 4281 7352 4320 7355 $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albany, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 28, 3:10 PM EDT, 3 hours 5 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 28, 3:10 PM EDT, 3 hours 5 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 310 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED MORNING ALB SOUNDING TO CURRENT READING OF 85/72 YIELDS CAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AROUND TO FUEL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT LACKING FOCUSING MECHANISM. STILL EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON... FOCUSING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES. GIVEN HIGH AVAILABLE CAPES...A PULSE-TYPE SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FRONT AND WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR THE CWA BY TUESDAY. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION WITH WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE FRONT. DESPITE GFS EVIDENCE OF SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING BULK OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...AND LEAVING FAR SOUTH WITH LOW/NO POPS. PLAN ON LIKELY POPS TONIGHT NORTH...SCALING TO LOW CHANCE SOUTH...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS FAR NORTH SUNDAY...AGAIN SCALING TO LOW CHANCE SOUTH. SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS ON SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...WHERE ETA DEPICTS CAPES IN 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE. 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...BUT 850MB WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS ENHANCE SEVERE THREAT. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... GFS AND ETA IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PUSHING FRONT ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY...AND FINALLY EAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. GFS SUGGESTS THAT INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL STORM GASTON...EXITING THE VIRGINIA CAPES TUESDAY MORNING...WILL SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY. PLAN TO CLEAR THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA BY TUESDAY MOST OF THE CWA...BUT WILL LINGER A SLIGHT CHANCE ON TUESDAY FOR EASTERN AREAS. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...PLAN ON A DRY FORECAST. && .AVIATION...HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. HAZE WILL FREQUENTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS....WHICH WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR DUE TO LOW VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT IN MIST AND FOG. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY WEATHER THIS PAST WEEK HAS ENABLED THE GROUND TO DRY OUT. ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE FLOODING ON ROADS AND PARKING AREAS BUT THE GROUND SHOULD SOAK UP ENOUGH SO STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL STAY WITHIN THEIR BANKS. GFS AND ETA IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA WITH FRONTAL ACTIVITY. BOTH MODELS PRINTING OUT AROUND 1.50-2.00 INCHES FOR THIS AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WITH DRY CONDITIONS RECENTLY...RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS PRECIP. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NY...NONE. VT...NONE. && SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...OKEEFE AVIATION/HYDROLOGY...KILPATRICK
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 28, 4:18 AM EDT, 13 hours 57 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 418 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004 CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066- 082>084-VTZ013>015-291100- THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. .DAY ONE...TODAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 28, 4:57 PM EDT, 1 hour 18 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 457 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004 NYZ039-040-282130- ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN MONTGOMERY AND FULTON COUNTIES... AT 454 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 MPH WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAIN. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FONDA...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE... IN FONDA BY 505 PM EDT 6 MILES SOUTH OF JOHNSTOWN BY 510 PM EDT TRIBES HILL BY 515 PM EDT FORT JOHNSON BY 525 PM EDT AMSTERDAM...HAGAMAN AND 8 MILES SOUTH OF BROADALBIN BY 530 PM EDT
Special weather statement, Aug 28, 5:32 PM EDT, 43 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 532 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004 NYZ039>041-049-050-282215- ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN MONTGOMERY...SCHENECTADY...SARATOGA AND FULTON COUNTIES... AT 529 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...SMALL HAIL...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH....FREQUENT LIGHTNING....AND HEAVY RAIN. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR AMSTERDAM...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... GLENVILLE BY 545 PM EDT GALWAY BY 555 PM EDT 7 MILES NORTH OF BURNT HILLS BY 610 PM EDT BALLSTON SPA...MILTON...ROCK CITY FALLS AND 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SARATOGA SPRINGS BY 615 PM EDT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM WILL RANGE BETWEEN HALF TO ONE INCH IN PLACES. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
Special weather statement, Aug 28, 5:35 PM EDT, 40 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 535 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004 NYZ043-282200- ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN WASHINGTON COUNTY... AT 534 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...SMALL HAIL...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH....FREQUENT LIGHTNING....AND HEAVY RAIN. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WHITEHALL...OR ABOUT OVER FAIR HAVEN... AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... HAMPTON...HAMPTON FLATS AND LOW HAMPTON BY 540 PM EDT RAINFALL WITH THIS STORM COULD APPROACH AN INCH...PRODUCING PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND WITHIN BANK RISES ON SMALL STREAMS.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Albany, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 6:47 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ALY | Washington | 28 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in New York, 2004Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.