Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Albany, NY

000 
WGUS71 KALY 122300
FFSALY
NYC041-122355-
 
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
700 PM EDT MON JUL 12 2004

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY HAS EXPIRED.

AT 650 PM RADAR STILL INDICATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS EXTREME 
NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY...HOWEVER THE RAIN HAD DIMINISHED SOME IN 
THE PAST HOUR HOUR.  THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING REMAINS IN EFFECT.  ADDITIONAL 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND SINCE THE 
GROUND IS SATURATED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BRING RENEWED 
FLOODING.
  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY, NY
408 PM EDT MON JUL 12 2004

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED
STATIONARY FRONT WILL HOVER OVER THE AREA THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW YORK TONIGHT AS
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.  AFTER THAT...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...TOUGH FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS NOT ONE MODEL
SHOWING ANY SOLUTION FOR THIS SYSTEM.  FOR THIS RUN WENT CLOSE TO
THE GFS SOLUTION.  THIS SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON WHAT WAS
HAPPENING.  QPF THIS EVENING LOOKS QUITE HIGH FOR THE EXTREME
PORTION OF THE CWA.  LATEST RADAR PIC SHOWING PRECIP STARTING TO
ENTER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.  WILL GO WITH CAT
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA TONIGHT AND DROP DOWN TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA.  WILL CONTINUE
WITH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 5AM TOMORROW MORNING.
&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WET PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.  THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY
STARTS TO MOVE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. WILL LOWER POPS DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY AS LOW MOVES EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE OUR BEST SHOT FOR A BRIEF DRY STRETCH AS WE
ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.  BY WEDNESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.  LIS AND CAPES
LOOK DECENT FOR AN EVENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  GFS
RIGHT NOW KEEPS THE BEST LIS AND CAPES SOUTH OF THE CWA.
&&

.AVIATION..MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THESE STORMS
WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND DUMP HEAVY RAINS...UPPER FLOW/STEERING
VERY WEAK. OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING.
REST OF FORECAST AREA...WIDESPREAD RAIN TO WEST/SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD INTO THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND MID HUDSON VALLEY WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON LOWERING TO IFR THIS EVENING WITH
RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR TO VFR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING WAS ISSUED FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.  THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. LATEST RUN OF THE GFS SHOWING
UPWARDS OF 4 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FFAALY-NYZ032-033-038>040-047-058-059-063>066-082.
     FLS ISSUED FOR NYC041
VT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
CT...FFAALY-CTZ001.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
510 AM EDT MON JUL 12 2004

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-131103-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.