Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY, NY
353 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2004

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH AN WARM
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PA AND NJ WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD.  AS THIS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWARD...THIS WILL BRING IN WARMER AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
IN STORE AND DRY WEATHER...WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST REAL TASTE OF
SUMMER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...
AIR WILL DESTABILIZE THIS EVENING.  WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE TONIGHT PERIOD.  WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL START TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  AS FAR AS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GOES...THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT REALLY SHOW A
TON OF SUPPORT FOR ANY STRONG STORMS.  UPWARD MOTION IS BEST LATE
TONIGHT AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  JET LOOKS WEAK AT THE 850
MB LEVEL.  BOTTOM LINE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS TONIGHT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON THURSDAY...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS FRONT IS REALLY SLOW MOVING.  AGAIN DYNAMICS NOT INDICATING ALL
THE INGREDIENTS IN FOR THE PICTURE FOR A BIG SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK.  SPC HAS OUR REGION IN THE SEE TEXT FOR THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
WILL CONTINUE EXTENDED WITH DRY SOLUTION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND.  ON
MONDAY WILL BRING BACK THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH THE NEXT
LOW WITH ASSOCIATED FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING WITH MVFR
POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION. CIGS AND VIS LOWERING TO MVFR BY LATE
EVENING JUST AHEAD OF BOUNDARY WITH SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MAJOR HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  QPF WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH TODAY AND TOMORROW.
&&

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
VT...NONE
MA...NONE.
CT...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT WED JUL 7 2004

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-081100-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY
OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  SOME STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.

TAW