Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1020 AM EDT WED JUL 7 2004

ANOTHER TYPICAL SUMMER DAY HERE IN AKQ CWA LAND...AS HOT AND
VRY HUMID CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING SHRTWV (TROF)
WILL TRIGGER SCTD TSRAS THIS AFTN AND EVENG.  AGAIN...ATMOS
PRIMED ENUF FOR A FEW TSRAS TO BE STRNG OR SVR WITH POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WNDS AND HAIL.  ALSO...HVY DWNPOURS WILL BE
LIKELY.  HIER POPS W AND LWR POPS E.

....PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....

.SYNOPSIS...TYPICAL SUMMER WX PTRN WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS RGN AS
WRN XTNSN OF BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT WX FTR. SVRL CHCS FOR
PCPN EXIST DUE TO PERSISTENT TROF E OF MTS. MAY BE DEALING WITH MCS
MOVMNTS ARND PERIFRY OF RIDGE BY ERLY NXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...PERSISTENCE RULES THE FCST TDY AS TROF AXIS REMAINS
OVR RGN. SHUD SEE CONVECTION DVLPNG BY ERLY AFTRN ALONG MTS THEN
DRIFT SE ACROSS FA THIS AFTRN AND EVE. ETA DVLPS SFC FTR ACROSS NC
THEN DRIFTS IN N INTO PIEDMONT AFTR 18Z. THUS WILL CONT CHC POPS FA
WIDE...BUT HOLDING OFF TIL LATE AFTRN CSTL AREAS. AS FOR SEVERE
THREAT...PARAMETERS SUGGEST PULSE TYPE TSRA AGAIN WITH PTNTL FOR
DMNGG WNDS & PSBL HAIL...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE PAST FEW DAYS.

MID & HIGH LVL CLDNS FROM DSPTG MID WEST SYSTM OVRSPRDG RGN ATTM.
HOWEVER...NOT OPAQUE ENUF TO SLOW DOWN SUNS HTNG. TMPS AOA 90 MOST
AREAS COMBINED WITH DP TMPS IN THE L-M70S RESULTS IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARND 100...100 TO 105 SRN INTERIOR CNTYS.

PCPN GRDLY TAPERS OFF AFTR MIDNITE TONITE...BUT FIRES UP ONCE AGAIN
THU AS TROF AXIS REMAINS ACROSS RGN. SO CONT POPS INTO THU NITE. FRI
APPEARS DRY AS TROF AXIS SLIDES E.

&&

.LONG TERM...MCS TYPE SYSTMS MIGRATING SE ARND BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAKE
TIMING OF PCPN BY ERLY NXT WEEK DIFFICULT AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CNDTNS XPCT FCST PRD...EXCEPT LOWER VSBYS AND
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCT TSTRMS.

&&

.MARINE...NO FLAGS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUN.
WAVES ON BAY GENERALLY AROUND 1 FT...2 TO 3 FT COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SBY   88  69  90  68 /  30  40  30  20
OXB   83  71  87  69 /  30  40  30  20
WAL   88  72  88  70 /  30  40  30  30
FVX   92  70  92  67 /  40  30  30  20
RIC   92  71  92  68 /  40  30  30  20
PTB   93  71  93  68 /  40  30  30  20
AKQ   92  71  92  69 /  30  40  30  30
PHF   92  72  91  71 /  30  40  30  30
ORF   90  73  91  72 /  30  40  30  30
ECG   92  74  93  73 /  30  40  30  30
&&

44/18/32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
530 AM EDT WED JUL 07 2004

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-080900-
ACCOMACK VA-AMELIA VA-BERTIE NC-BRUNSWICK VA-CAMDEN NC-CAROLINE VA-
CHARLES CITY VA-CHESAPEAKE VA-CHESTERFIELD VA-CHOWAN NC-
CUMBERLAND VA-DINWIDDIE VA-DORCHESTER MD-EASTERN CURRITUCK NC-
ESSEX VA-FLUVANNA VA-GATES NC-GLOUCESTER VA-GOOCHLAND VA-
GREENSVILLE VA-HANOVER VA-HENRICO VA-HERTFORD NC-INLAND WORCESTER MD-
ISLE OF WIGHT VA-JAMES CITY VA-KING AND QUEEN VA-KING WILLIAM VA-
LANCASTER VA-LOUISA VA-LUNENBURG VA-MARYLAND BEACHES MD-MATHEWS VA-
MECKLENBURG VA-MIDDLESEX VA-NEW KENT VA-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON VA-
NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH VA-NORTHAMPTON VA-NORTHAMPTON NC-
NORTHUMBERLAND VA-NOTTOWAY VA-PASQUOTANK NC-PERQUIMANS NC-
POWHATAN VA-PRINCE EDWARD VA-PRINCE GEORGE VA-RICHMOND VA-
SOMERSET MD-SOUTHAMPTON VA-SUFFOLK VA-SURRY VA-SUSSEX VA-
VIRGINIA BEACH VA-WESTERN CURRITUCK NC-WESTMORELAND VA-WICOMICO MD-
YORK VA-
530 AM EDT WED JUL 07 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE EASTERN MARYLAND SHORE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. SEE SPSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FORECASTER ID
44

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
WAKEFIELD, VA CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING
(LOWER CASE): HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/AKQ.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
105 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2004

VAZ063-068-070>072-071745-
AMELIA VA-CHESTERFIELD VA-HANOVER VA-HENRICO VA-KING WILLIAM VA-
105 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO RICHMOND METRO AREA...

AT 105 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF TUCKAHOE TO MANNBORO...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
TUCKAHOE AROUND 115 PM EDT
  ASHLAND AROUND 120 PM EDT
  BON AIR AROUND 125 PM EDT
  DOWNTOWN RICHMOND AROUND 140 PM EDT
  MECHANICSVILLE AROUND 145 PM EDT
OTHER LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED BY THE STORMS INCLUDE CHESTER...
COLONIAL HEIGHTS...HIGHLAND SPRINGS AND MOSELEY.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
EXPECT FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.
RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.

MALOIT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
119 PM EDT WED JUL 07 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0107 PM     HAIL             2 NE SHORT PUMP         37.67N 77.58W
07/07/2004  1.75 INCH        HENRICO            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

AWIPSUSR

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
141 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2004

VAZ063-070>072-080>083-071830-
CHARLES CITY VA-CHESTERFIELD VA-DINWIDDIE VA-HANOVER VA-HENRICO
VA-KING WILLIAM VA-NEW KENT VA-PRINCE GEORGE VA-
141 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE RICHMOND AND TRI-CITIES
METRO AREAS...

AT 141 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF MECHANICSVILLE TO
DINWIDDIE...OR FROM 7 MILES EAST OF ASHLAND TO DINWIDDIE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
MECHANICSVILLE AROUND 150 PM...PETERSBURG AROUND 155 PM...HIGHLAND
SPRINGS AROUND 205 PM...HOPEWELL AROUND 210 PM...DISPUTANTA AROUND
215 PM...AND ROXBURY AROUND 230 PM.

OTHER LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED BY THE STORMS INCLUDE CHARLES CITY...
CHESTER...COLONIAL HEIGHTS...DOWNTOWN RICHMOND...FORT LEE...KING
WILLIAM AND TALLEYSVILLE.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
EXPECT FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.
RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.

MALOIT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
142 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2004

NCZ012-VAZ065-079-071830-
BRUNSWICK VA-MECKLENBURG VA-NORTHAMPTON NC-
142 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER MECKLENBURG COUNTY...

AT 142 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12 MILES WEST OF SOUTH HILL TO 22 MILES
SOUTH OF BRODNAX...OR FROM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHASE CITY TO 10
MILES EAST OF WARRENTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR SOUTH HILL AROUND 210 PM AND BRODNAX
AROUND 215 PM. OTHER LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED BY THE STORMS INCLUDE
GARYSBURG AND RICH SQUARE. THE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO BRUNSWICK
COUNTY VIRGINIA AND WESTERN NORTHAMPTON COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA OVER
THE NEXT HOUR.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS. EXPECT FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IN THE PATH
OF THESE STORMS.

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
149 PM EDT WED JUL 07 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ASHLAND                 37.76N 77.48W
07/07/2004                   HANOVER            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            COUPLE OF TREES DOWN NEAR PHILIP MORRIS PLANT.

&&

SAMMLER