Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
324 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 2004

.SYNOPSIS...
BKDR CDFNT CONTS PUSHING SSW TNGT AND WELL S THRU NC SAT. SFC HI
PRES FM SE CANADA BUILDS TO SRN NEW ENG CST BY SUN AFTN...THEN
OFFSHR SUN NGT. SFC FNTL BNDRY RETURNS NNE AS WRMFNT MON INTO ERY
TUE...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CDFNT CRSG RGN BY ERY WED. HI PRES BRINGS
DRY/SEASONABLE CONDS LT NEXT WK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BKDR CDFNT (ALIGNED FM ABT EZF TO CPK ATTM) SLIPPING GRDLY SSW...AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLES S AND SW OF FA BRDR LTR TNGT. LRG AREA OF RA ACRS
PA AND CNTRL MD HEADING SE...WHL CNVTN STARTING TO POP NR/JUST S OF
FNTL BNDRY IN WRMR AMS ACRS CNTRL-SRN WV/XTRM SW VA. AMS OVR SCNTRL
VA AND INTR NE NC WAITING FOR TRIGGER TO KICKOFF CNVTN...AND WL HV
TO WATCH FOR CONDS TO CHG QUIKLY ERY THIS EVE. AT ANY RATE...XPCTG
WDSPD CVRG OF SHRAS/TSRAS NR/S OF FNTL BNDRY THIS EVE...PTNTLLY W/
VRY HVY RA/GSTY WNDS...N OF BNDRY...ESP NR BAY AND ON
DELMARVA...RA/DZ.

MID LVL SYS CAUSING WET WX TNGT...PUSHES OFFSHR ERY SAT. HOW MUCH
CLRG FM THE N OCCURS STILL UNCERTAIN...GENLY MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJSTMNTS TO PREV FCST SKY CVR SAT...WHICH PROMOTES CLRG CONDS MOST
AREAS DURG AFTN HRS. HWVR...HV BEEN BURNED RECENTLY FOLLOWING CLRG
TRENDS OF MDLS...AND CONDS ENDING UP CLDY/COOLER THAN XPCTD. TEMPS
ONLY IN UPR 60S TO LWR/MID 70S.

CONCERN OVR MARITIME CLDNS...AS LLVL FLO TURNS ESE SAT NGT INTO
SUN...LVG PCLDY MOST AREAS FOR NOW. SUN MAY TURN OUT MSTLY CLDY AS
LLVL FLO RMNS FM SE. NEXT CHC FOR PCPN MON THRU TUE AS COMBO
PASSAGES OF WRMFNT/CDFNT OCCURS...B4 SUFFICIENT DRYING WED THRU LT
NEXT WK.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAS FOR INCRSG SEAS FENWICK ISL TO CAPE CHARLES TNGT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SBY CONTS W/ LIFR/IFR CONDS THRU THE NGT...ELSW GENLY MVFR (IFR PSBL
W/ CNVTN).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SBY   53  71  48  72 /  90  10  10  10
OXB   56  66  52  69 /  90  10  10  10
WAL   58  71  54  71 /  90  10  10  10
FVX   64  74  57  77 /  90  20  10  10
RIC   61  74  57  76 /  90  20  10  10
PTB   62  75  55  78 /  90  20  10  10
AKQ   62  74  53  77 /  90  20  10  10
PHF   63  71  57  74 /  90  20  10  10
ORF   67  70  60  72 /  90  20  10  10
ECG   68  73  58  76 /  90  20  10  10
&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...SCA ATLC CSTL WTRS FENWICK ISL TO CHINCOTEAGUE.
VA...SCA ATLC CSTL WTRS CHINCOTEAGUE TO CAPE CHARLES LGT.
NC...NONE.
&&

25/32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
530 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 2004

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-120900-
ACCOMACK VA-AMELIA VA-BERTIE NC-BRUNSWICK VA-CAMDEN NC-CAROLINE VA-
CHARLES CITY VA-CHESAPEAKE VA-CHESTERFIELD VA-CHOWAN NC-
CUMBERLAND VA-DINWIDDIE VA-DORCHESTER MD-EASTERN CURRITUCK NC-
ESSEX VA-FLUVANNA VA-GATES NC-GLOUCESTER VA-GOOCHLAND VA-
GREENSVILLE VA-HANOVER VA-HENRICO VA-HERTFORD NC-INLAND WORCESTER MD-
ISLE OF WIGHT VA-JAMES CITY VA-KING AND QUEEN VA-KING WILLIAM VA-
LANCASTER VA-LOUISA VA-LUNENBURG VA-MARYLAND BEACHES MD-MATHEWS VA-
MECKLENBURG VA-MIDDLESEX VA-NEW KENT VA-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON VA-
NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH VA-NORTHAMPTON VA-NORTHAMPTON NC-
NORTHUMBERLAND VA-NOTTOWAY VA-PASQUOTANK NC-PERQUIMANS NC-
POWHATAN VA-PRINCE EDWARD VA-PRINCE GEORGE VA-RICHMOND VA-
SOMERSET MD-SOUTHAMPTON VA-SUFFOLK VA-SURRY VA-SUSSEX VA-
VIRGINIA BEACH VA-WESTERN CURRITUCK NC-WESTMORELAND VA-WICOMICO MD-
YORK VA-
530 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE EASTERN MARYLAND SHORE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BROWN

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
WAKEFIELD, VA CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING
(LOWER CASE): HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/AKQ.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
659 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BURKEVILLE              37.19N 78.20W
06/11/2004                   NOTTOWAY           VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

&&

SJF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
730 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RAWLINGS                36.95N 77.78W
06/11/2004                   BRUNSWICK          VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON INTERSTATE 85.

&&

SJF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
745 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 PM     HAIL             RAWLINGS                36.95N 77.78W
06/11/2004  1.25 INCH        BRUNSWICK          VA   PUBLIC

            QUARTER TO HALF-DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

&&

SJF