Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Wakefield, VA

May 16, 2004Prince Edward County, Virginia

NWS Wakefield, VA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 16, 2004, 3:39 PM EDT for Prince Edward County, Virginia. It was in force for 21 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
May 16, 2004, 3:39 PM EDT (19:39 UTC)
Expired
May 16, 2004, 4:00 PM EDT
In force
21 min
Issued by
NWS Wakefield, VA
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Prince Edward County, VA

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 94 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2004-05-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 148 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2004-05-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -8 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
148 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-48 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
795 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
18 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-8 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
32 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 16, 2:20 PM EDT, 1 hour 19 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 16, 2:20 PM EDT, 1 hour 19 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
220 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2004

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT TO STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA TONIGHT...THEN LIFT NORTH
AS IT DISSIPATES ON MON. HIGH PRES OFF THE SE COAST WILL
BECOME REESTABLISHED ON TUE. ANOTHER FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE NW ON
WED. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID ATLC ON
THU. EXTENDED FCAST IN TERMS OF TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL HINGE
ON WHERE FRONT STALLS OUT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED ALONG AND
AHD OF WEAK FRONTAL TROF...AND WITHIN AREA OF MAX EQUIV
POTENTIAL TEMP...WHERE RUC INDICATING 2000 TO 2500 J/KG OF SFC BASED
CAPE. TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. ETA ACTUALLY GENERATES A BAND OF HALF TO ONE INCH OF QPF
TONIGHT INVOF FRONTAL TROF. THINK THIS IS BASED ON WEAK LIFT ASSOC
WITH FRONT BEGINNING RETURN N AS WARM FRONT...BUT MODEL/S CONVECTIVE
SCHEME PERHAPS OVERDOING IT. NO SIGN OF THIS IN GFS OR NGM. STILL...
WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS OVERNIGHT...TO HANDLE ANY LINGERING...ISOLD
SHOWERS.

FRONT WASHES OUT ON MON...AND SLY FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED...WITH
PRECIP LIKELY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE AREAS. LOW PASSES BY TO THE N ON
WED...WITH FRONT SAGGING BACK S INTO THE AREA...SO ANOTHER CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WARRANTED THEN. FRONT LIFTS BACK N OF THE AREA FOR
THU...THEN PROGGED TO DROP BACK S FRI AND SAT...BEFORE PERHAPS
WASHING OUT ON SUN. AGREE WITH HPC IN KEEPING FRONTS MAINLY N OF
THE WAKEFIELD FA...AND HAVE TENDED TO GO LIMIT POPS FOR
NRN FA AS A RESULT.

AGAIN...POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PERIOD IN THE 4 TO 7 DAY
RANGE...OR FAIRLY DRY...DEPENDING ON WHERE FRONTS ACTUALLY STALL
OUT. FOR NOW...THINK BETTER CHANCE OF DRY PERIOD S...AND A LITTLE
MORE UNSETTLED NORTH...IN TERMS OF SCATTERED TSTMS...THE WAY IT
LOOKS NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
MORE OF THE SAME. GENERALLY SW WINDS THRU PERIOD...NO FLAGS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SBY   63  80  63  83 /  30  20  10  10
OXB   63  73  63  77 /  30  20  10  10
WAL   63  78  64  82 /  40  20  10  10
FVX   62  83  63  85 /  40  10  10  10
RIC   64  82  64  85 /  40  10  10  10
PTB   64  83  64  85 /  40  10  10  10
AKQ   66  83  65  86 /  40  10  10  10
PHF   66  82  67  85 /  40  10  10  10
ORF   66  82  67  84 /  30  10  10  10
ECG   66  83  66  84 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
&&

18/44
Hazardous weather outlook, May 16, 6:00 AM EDT, 9 hours 39 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
600 AM EDT SUN MAY 16 2004

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-171000-
ACCOMACK VA-AMELIA VA-BERTIE NC-BRUNSWICK VA-CAMDEN NC-CAROLINE VA-
CHARLES CITY VA-CHESAPEAKE VA-CHESTERFIELD VA-CHOWAN NC-
CUMBERLAND VA-DINWIDDIE VA-DORCHESTER MD-EASTERN CURRITUCK NC-
ESSEX VA-FLUVANNA VA-GATES NC-GLOUCESTER VA-GOOCHLAND VA-
GREENSVILLE VA-HANOVER VA-HENRICO VA-HERTFORD NC-INLAND WORCESTER MD-
ISLE OF WIGHT VA-JAMES CITY VA-KING AND QUEEN VA-KING WILLIAM VA-
LANCASTER VA-LOUISA VA-LUNENBURG VA-MARYLAND BEACHES MD-MATHEWS VA-
MECKLENBURG VA-MIDDLESEX VA-NEW KENT VA-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON VA-
NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH VA-NORTHAMPTON VA-NORTHAMPTON NC-
NORTHUMBERLAND VA-NOTTOWAY VA-PASQUOTANK NC-PERQUIMANS NC-
POWHATAN VA-PRINCE EDWARD VA-PRINCE GEORGE VA-RICHMOND VA-
SOMERSET MD-SOUTHAMPTON VA-SUFFOLK VA-SURRY VA-SUSSEX VA-
VIRGINIA BEACH VA-WESTERN CURRITUCK NC-WESTMORELAND VA-WICOMICO MD-
YORK VA-
600 AM EDT SUN MAY 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE EASTERN MARYLAND SHORE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FORECASTER ID
TG

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
WAKEFIELD, VA CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING
(LOWER CASE): HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/AKQ.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 16, 1:34 PM EDT, 2 hours 5 minutes before
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Special weather statement, May 16, 2:19 PM EDT, 1 hour 20 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
219 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2004

VAZ060-061-065>068-070-079>082-084-086>091-094-161901-
AMELIA VA-BRUNSWICK VA-CHARLES CITY VA-CHESTERFIELD VA-CUMBERLAND VA-
DINWIDDIE VA-GLOUCESTER VA-GREENSVILLE VA-JAMES CITY VA-LUNENBURG VA-
MATHEWS VA-MECKLENBURG VA-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON VA-NOTTOWAY VA-
PRINCE EDWARD VA-PRINCE GEORGE VA-SURRY VA-SUSSEX VA-YORK VA-
219 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2004

...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VIRGINIA...

AT 210 PM...RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR SOUTH HILL
TO FARMVILLE...EMPORIA...PETERSBURG...SURRY AND NEWPORT NEWS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN
CUMBERLAND...CHESTERFIELD...BRUNSWICK...GLOUCESTER AND MATHEWS.

THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF CENTRAL...SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTING...GUSTY
WINDS TO 30 MPH AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.  RAIN FALL UP TO ONE INCH
LOCALLY...WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE AND CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE IN DANGER OF BEING
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING...EVEN IF RAIN IS NOT FALLING AT YOUR LOCATION.
SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE THUNDER HAS ENDED.

NS
Special weather statement, May 16, 2:24 PM EDT, 1 hour 15 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
224 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2004

MDZ024-025-161930-
INLAND WORCESTER MD-MARYLAND BEACHES MD-
224 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2004

...THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING OCEAN CITY...

AT 220 PM...RADAR SHOWED A THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DELAWARE AND
MARYLAND BORDER...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.  THIS STORM WILL BRUSH
NORTHERN PARTS OF OCEAN CITY THROUGH 330 PM.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTING...GUSTY
WINDS TO 30 MPH AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.  RAIN FALL UP TO ONE INCH
LOCALLY...WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE AND CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE IN DANGER OF BEING
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING...EVEN IF RAIN IS NOT FALLING AT YOUR LOCATION.
SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE THUNDER HAS ENDED.

NS
Special weather statement, May 16, 2:59 PM EDT, 40 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
259 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2004

VAZ060-061-065>070-079>082-084-086>094-162000-
AMELIA VA-BRUNSWICK VA-CHARLES CITY VA-CHESTERFIELD VA-CUMBERLAND VA-
DINWIDDIE VA-GLOUCESTER VA-GREENSVILLE VA-ISLE OF WIGHT VA-
JAMES CITY VA-LUNENBURG VA-MATHEWS VA-MECKLENBURG VA-
NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON VA-NOTTOWAY VA-POWHATAN VA-PRINCE EDWARD VA-
PRINCE GEORGE VA-SOUTHAMPTON VA-SURRY VA-SUSSEX VA-YORK VA-
259 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2004

...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
VIRGINIA...

AT 255 PM...RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING FROM
FARMVILLE TO PETERSBURG...SOUTH
HILL...EMPORIA...WAKEFIELD...SURRY...ISLE OF WIGHT ...SOUTHAMPTON AND
NEWPORT NEWS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.  PEA TO MARBLE SIZED HAIL WAS
REPORTED IN SOME OF THE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN...CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER
THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTING...GUSTY
WINDS TO 30 MPH AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.  RAIN FALL UP TO ONE INCH
LOCALLY...WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE AND CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE IN DANGER OF BEING
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING...EVEN IF RAIN IS NOT FALLING AT YOUR LOCATION.
SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE THUNDER HAS ENDED.

NS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Wakefield, VA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 16, 4:49 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQHanover26 min
May 16, 5:16 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQMiddlesex14 min
May 16, 5:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQMiddlesex17 min
May 16, 6:15 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQEssex15 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Virginia, 2004Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.