Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Wakefield, VA

May 7, 2004Caroline County, Virginia

NWS Wakefield, VA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 7, 2004, 7:24 PM EDT for Caroline County, Virginia. It was in force for 36 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
May 7, 2004, 7:24 PM EDT (23:24 UTC)
Expired
May 7, 2004, 8:00 PM EDT
In force
36 min
Issued by
NWS Wakefield, VA
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Caroline County, VA

The radar

The Sterling radar (KLWX), 106 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
May 7, 7:20 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC4 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 11.4 hours before the alert went out and 103 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2004-05-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 28 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2004-05-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 184 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
28 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-314 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1566 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
184 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
167 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 7, 5:30 PM EDT, 1 hour 54 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 7, 5:30 PM EDT, 1 hour 54 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
530 PM EDT FRI MAY 7 2004

UPDATED FCSTS SENT FOR SVR TSTM WATCH #157 WHICH INCLUDES ALL LOWER
MD COUNTIES AND WESTMORELAND COUNTY VA UNTIL 10 PM. THIS WATCH IS
MAINLY FOR MCS MOVING THRU FAR NW VA ATTM.

CONVECTION HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG BLUE RIDGE BUT HAS
FALLEN APART ENCOUNTERING THE DRY AIR AND MID LVL CAPPING OVER VA
PIEDMONT. SO NOW LOOKING FOR MAIN THREAT SVR TO BE ACRS FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES BETWEEN 7 AND 10 PM. STILL CANT RULE OUT TSTM DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN VA LATER THIS EVE SO
NO OTHER CHGS TO FCST ATTM.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

.OVERVIEW/SYNOPSIS...ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM HAS ALL OUR
ATTENTION AS SEVERAL CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT
DROPPING THRU MASON DIXON ATTM. SO FAR CONVECIVE WATCH BOXES HAVE
BEEN PLACED JUST N OF AKQ COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT ANTICIPATE SEVERE
WEATHER WILL ALSO BE LIKELY FOR LOWER MD/EASTERN VA LATE THIS AFTN
AND EVENING. AS COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE MID ATLC COAST LATER
TONIGHT...A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE DIFF FOR MOST AS HIGHS ON SATURDAY
LIKELY TO BE 15-20F COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT FIRST MCS ALONG PA/MD BORDER TO STAY N OF AKQ
FORECAST AREAS THIS AFTN. MCS OF CONCERN NOW OVR SE OHIO AND SHUD
CROSS MTNS OF N WVA/VA DURING RMNDR AFTN. WEAK CAPPING HAS LIMITED
CU DEVELOP E OF MTNS THUS FAR...BUT UPR COOLING ASSOCD WITH MCS
SHUD HELP BREAK CAP BY LATE AFTN AND CUD SEE SOME EXPLOSIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACRS VA PIEDMONT IN HIGHLY VOLATILE AIRMASS. WL CONT OUR
ENHANCED TSTM WORDING IN LATE AFTN/EVE FCST.

MARINE LAYER FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ON SATURDAY AS STRONG SFC HIGH NOSES
DOWN FROM SOUTH OF NEW ENG. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF LOW
LVL MOISTURE SO EXPECT MOCLDY AND COOL CONDS TO PREVAIL MUCH OF THE
DAY. LOW LVL WIND TRAJECTORY TURNING MORE SE/S WELL INLAND BY SAT
AFTN AND ANY SUN WILL HELP TEMPS RECOVER BY LATE IN THE DAY.

LOW LVL WEDGE GRADUALLY ERODES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT MAY
LINGER OVR NE FORECAST AREA EVEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY BACK TO ABV NORM OVR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS BUT MAY BE STUCK
WITH MOCLOUDY/COOL CONDS OVR ERN SHORE/NRN NECK AREAS.

MUCH OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY BUILDING UPR RDG OVR SE
STATES SO WILL KEEP DRY FCST WITH ABV NORM TEMPS. CUD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION JUST ABOUT ANY DAY BUT SEE NO FOCUS
FOR MORE ORGANIZED PCPN ATTM. GFS HINTING AT ANTHR BACKDOOR FRONT
POSSIBILITY TUES NIGHT/WED BUT WL LTR ADDRESS THIS WITH LTR MODEL
RUNS.

&&

.MARINE...STILL EXPECT MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS (MAINLY FOR SEAS)
ACROSS THE NRN CSTL WATERS SAT AND POSSIBLY SAT NIGHT...AS A RESULT
OF THE INCREASING NE FLOW AND LONG FETCH WITH THE HIGH STRENGTHENING
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR VCNTY TSTMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SBY   54  62  52  78 /  30  10  10  20
OXB   54  57  53  70 /  30  10  10  20
WAL   55  60  54  76 /  30  10  10  20
FVX   61  71  59  87 /  30  10  10  20
RIC   59  68  59  85 /  30  10  10  20
PTB   61  69  58  86 /  30  10  10  20
AKQ   61  68  57  85 /  30  10  10  20
PHF   60  63  57  83 /  30  10  10  20
ORF   60  64  60  83 /  30  10  10  20
ECG   62  65  61  83 /  20  10  10  20
&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
&&

CULLEN(B1)/HURLEY(B2)
Hazardous weather outlook, May 7, 5:35 PM EDT, 1 hour 49 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
535 PM EDT FRI MAY 07 2004

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-072330-
ACCOMACK VA-AMELIA VA-BERTIE NC-BRUNSWICK VA-CAMDEN NC-CAROLINE VA-
CHARLES CITY VA-CHESAPEAKE VA-CHESTERFIELD VA-CHOWAN NC-
CUMBERLAND VA-DINWIDDIE VA-DORCHESTER MD-EASTERN CURRITUCK NC-
ESSEX VA-FLUVANNA VA-GATES NC-GLOUCESTER VA-GOOCHLAND VA-
GREENSVILLE VA-HANOVER VA-HENRICO VA-HERTFORD NC-INLAND WORCESTER MD-
ISLE OF WIGHT VA-JAMES CITY VA-KING AND QUEEN VA-KING WILLIAM VA-
LANCASTER VA-LOUISA VA-LUNENBURG VA-MARYLAND BEACHES MD-MATHEWS VA-
MECKLENBURG VA-MIDDLESEX VA-NEW KENT VA-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON VA-
NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH VA-NORTHAMPTON VA-NORTHAMPTON NC-
NORTHUMBERLAND VA-NOTTOWAY VA-PASQUOTANK NC-PERQUIMANS NC-
POWHATAN VA-PRINCE EDWARD VA-PRINCE GEORGE VA-RICHMOND VA-
SOMERSET MD-SOUTHAMPTON VA-SUFFOLK VA-SURRY VA-SUSSEX VA-
VIRGINIA BEACH VA-WESTERN CURRITUCK NC-WESTMORELAND VA-WICOMICO MD-
YORK VA-
430 AM EDT FRI MAY 07 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE EASTERN MARYLAND SHORE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #157 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT FOR
WESTMORELAND COUNTY IN THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA...AND FOR THE
LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND OR DAMAGING WINDS. SEE SLSVA AND SLSDC FOR DETAILS.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...AND NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SEE SPSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.

BROWN

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
WAKEFIELD, VA CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING
(LOWER CASE): HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/AKQ.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 7, 5:45 PM EDT, 1 hour 39 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED FORMAT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
545 PM EDT FRI MAY 7 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN
SHORE AND WESTMORELAND COUNTY UNTIL 10 PM...

MDZ021>025-VAZ075-080031-
DORCHESTER MD-INLAND WORCESTER MD-MARYLAND BEACHES MD-SOMERSET MD-
WESTMORELAND VA-WICOMICO MD-
545 PM EDT FRI MAY 7 2004

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE VIRGINIA
HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THEIR
INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND
THIS EVENING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES.

CULLEN

The office that day

Everything else NWS Wakefield, VA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 7, 7:51 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQEssex, Richmond, Westmoreland39 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Virginia, 2004Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.